foreign media: The era of ASML is ending!
When many people know ASML, it has already monopolized the global lithography machine market. As the only company in the world capable of producing EUV lithography machines, its current position in the semiconductor field is even more "sparkly" than that of TSMC. "!
Under the restrictions of the United States, ASML has also lost its right to operate independently. Every import and export of lithography machines must be authorized. This has also led to the gradual loss of international credibility, and is now on the "cusp of the storm."
Although there are still many chip manufacturers coming to buy lithography machines, their actual situation has already undergone subtle changes. ASML can develop to this point. Its founder is naturally a smart man, and he has seen the potential of the Chinese market early.
As a "world chip factory" recognized by Bill Gates and Google CEO, the Chinese market has shown sufficient competitiveness, but now ASML is restricted from cooperating with Chinese companies, and advanced EUV lithography machines cannot reach the country at all. Even DUV lithography machines must be restricted.
ASML can only use its own method to lay out the Chinese market as much as possible within the operable scope. From establishing an R&D center to subsequently recruiting a large number of Chinese employees, it is preparing for a large number of imported lithography machines. After all, domestic lithography machines have given it It's a lot of pressure.
The history of ASML
Many people only know the glory of ASML, but it is unimaginable that it has also experienced decline. At first, it was just a small company in the Netherlands . At that time, the lithography machine market was occupied by Japanese companies, and ASML also iterated on many products. , lacking in technology, it failed to open up the market. When
was about to face bankruptcy, it received financial and technical support from TSMC. After decades of development, it finally entered the first echelon after launching the first immersive DUV lithography machine. This is also the reason why TSMC can get priority supply rights.
After ASML's technology emerged, it received high support from the United States and the United States. It also suppressed the uncontrollable development of Japanese companies. Since then, ASML has "soared into the sky". After taking the lead in breaking through the EUV lithography machine, it also directly announced monopolizing the global market.
However, after the relevant restrictions were launched in the United States, ASML became the main "chess piece". It also wanted to use the supply of new generation EUV lithography machines to force TSMC to hand over advanced technology, but it never expected to arouse the alliance of countries around the world. resist.
ASML's glory comes and goes quickly. It can be said that "successes are always beautiful, and failures are always beautiful." Foreign media even directly stated: "The era of ASML is coming to an end!"
ASML's situation has changed
In order to cope with the control of the global chip industry chain by Laos and the United States, major chip manufacturers have begun to increase the use time of existing processes and are no longer keen on transferring the large-scale production scope of their own chips to the most advanced process technology superior.
Take and Apple , which have always been keen on technology upgrades, as an example. The new machines released this year will also use the A15 chip. Only the high-end version will use the A16 chip, and it is not a 4nm process as mentioned before, but a 4nm process. The more mature Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., Ltd. 5nm process has been adopted.
At the same time, according to the latest news from Apple, it has reduced its chip production capacity by at least 10%. This is not Apple’s subjective wish, but TSMC is deliberately reducing order volume, that is, it is unwilling to upgrade advanced processes to reduce its demand for chips. Relying on EUV lithography machines will buy you more time for technology research and development.
Although Korean companies have already used EUV lithography machines to produce memory chips , Chinese companies have now proven that they can produce products with excellent performance without EUV lithography machines. Korean companies will definitely move towards this in the future. Moving forward in the direction of research and development.
At this stage, the selling price of EUV lithography machines has exceeded US$100 million, and the latest generation has reached US$400 million. Regardless of the IQ tax involved, most companies face such high costs. Nature cannot bear it.
What’s more important is that even if the price is so high, it is not something you can get if you want. This has also directly accelerated global chip manufacturers’ willingness to get rid of EUV lithography machines.
Currently, many countries have promoted plans to realize advanced chip manufacturing without EUV lithography machines, including TSMC and Samsung are also involved, and the NIL process has been confirmed to be able to achieve 5nm without using EUV lithography machines. advanced technology.
and Huawei and the "chip stacking" process promoted by TSMC can also use 14nm chips to achieve chip production capacity no less than 7nm, and the new process means lower costs, and can also effectively delay Moore's Law When the limit of comes.
TSMC and Samsung have been committed to the research and development of the 3nm process, and TSMC has stated that the 3nm process will be used for a long time. For this reason, it has also specially developed 5 versions of the 3nm process, which will be launched at different times to meet different needs. market demand.
If the chip manufacturing process is limited to 3nm for a long time, it means that ASML's new generation of lithography machines will lose its corresponding value. By 2025, ASML's production capacity will also be greater than market demand. If the Chinese market supply cannot be liberalized , ASML has come to an end.
Faced with the continuous backlog of the DUV market and the export restriction of EUV lithography machines, if ASML cannot solve the relationship between supply and demand, its era will definitely come to an end. What do you think of this?
