has recently encountered the cold wave in China, and many places have experienced the coldest winter in history.
So many people have doubts, isn't it "global warming", why is it still so cold in winter?
In order to explain the problem of popular science, I will analyze why this winter is so cold this year.
Because the climate issue is also one of my long-term concerns.
(1) La Niña climate
I wrote an article on July 9th devoted to climate issues.
In this article at the time, it was analyzed that the reason for the heavy rain in summer was caused by the La Niña climate caused by global warming.
In fact, at the time of writing this article, the academic community is still debating whether there will be a La Niña climate phenomenon in the second half of this year. Because in fact, in the first half of this year, there was a short El Niño phenomenon.
About the relationship between El Niño phenomenon and La Niña phenomenon , you can easily know by looking at the figure below.
Simply put, the water in the eastern Pacific becomes colder and the water in the western Pacific becomes warmer, which will lead to the La Niña phenomenon.
Once the La Niña phenomenon occurs, it is easy to have heavy rain disasters in the Western Pacific. In turn, the western Pacific will become drier, so North America is more prone to wildfires. So, this summer is the heavy rain on our side and the worst forest fires in history on the American side.
At that time in July, it was not a sure thing whether the La Niña phenomenon took shape, but there was no controversy about the La Niña phenomenon later.
When I wrote that article in July, the Nino3.4 seawater temperature was still at -0.3.
The criterion for determining whether the La Niña climate is in shape is that the seawater temperature of Nino3.4 is lower than the threshold of 0.5.
Then let's take a look at the seawater temperature of Nino3.4 after July.
After September, the seawater temperature dropped sharply, and fell to the deep value area of -2 when it was the lowest in November. Even though sea temperatures warmed up in December, they were still below this threshold of -0.5.
Therefore, in the second half of this year, it is very clear that the La Niña climate phenomenon will occur.
So why is the sea temperature getting colder?
One of the important reasons is that the global glaciers are melting faster.
So why are glaciers melting faster?
is clearly due to global warming.
That's why we say that global warming leads to the emergence of a La Niña climate, and the emergence of a La Niña climate can easily trigger a cold wave in winter.
Historically, when there was a La Niña climate, it was easy to have a cold winter attack.
For example, the La Niña climate in 2000 led to low temperatures in the Northeast and North China in the winter of 2000. Another example is the La Niña climate in 2008, which also caused a wide range of low-temperature rain and snow to freeze in the south.
why is this?
(2) The Arctic Vortex is unsealed
Over the North Pole, there is an "Arctic Vortex" where cold air gathers.
The Arctic vortex is usually locked in the North Pole by the extremely low temperature of the North Pole, like a pot lid, which locks the cold air in the North Pole.
If the arctic vortex cannot go south in winter, generally warm winters will occur in the northern hemisphere. And once the arctic vortex goes south in winter, there will be a cold winter in the northern hemisphere.
In the past when La Niña climates appeared, due to active climate change, the arctic vortex was cut open like a knife, making it easier to go south, which made it easy to have cold winters in La Niña years.
This year is even more special. Because of the superimposed global warming effect, the temperature of the Arctic has increased significantly for many consecutive years, which makes it more difficult to lock the "Arctic Vortex" in the Arctic when the glaciers are melting a lot.
The left side of the above picture is the normal state of the Arctic vortex, and the right side is the state where this Arctic vortex has been released this year.
Under normal circumstances, the arctic vortex will be locked in the arctic circle, and if you honestly turn counterclockwise, then we will have a warm winter. And when the Arctic vortex is released southward like this year, it is easy to have a large-scale cold wave. For example, when I was in Xiamen, in mid-December, I was still wearing short sleeves, and the cold wave came almost overnight, so I quickly wrapped my coat.
Therefore, this winter will be so cold, mainly because of the global warming background, the superimposed La Niña climate this year, resulting in the release of the Arctic vortex to the south, forming a large-scale cold wave.
In the final analysis, it can be said that because of global warming, this year's coldest winter has finally appeared.
In fact, global warming can easily lead to extreme weather phenomena. This is due to the intensified melting of glaciers, which causes the earth's climate system to "cold and heat out of balance", so it is very cold when it is cold, and it is very hot when it is hot. climate phenomenon.
But from the perspective of the general trend, global warming, in normal years, will cause the global average temperature to continue to rise, which is a sure thing.
However, in special years, such as the La Niña phenomenon this year, it is easy to cause the imbalance of cold and heat, so this summer is particularly hot, and winter is particularly cold.
This situation will occur more and more frequently in the future as the global glaciers melt.
(3) The biggest grey rhino that mankind faces
Global warming is the biggest "grey rhinoceros" that mankind must face.
Although people like Trump who are full of lies always denounce global warming as a hoax, basically, global warming is the consensus of academia, and even political and economic circles.
Global warming is objectively due to the solar cycle. But the huge amount of greenhouse gases emitted by humans after the Industrial Revolution undoubtedly contributed to the fueling effect. Therefore, there is no way to stop and reverse global warming, because human beings cannot affect the activity cycle of the sun. But global warming can be "delayed" by reducing greenhouse gas emissions.
If we do not reduce greenhouse gas emissions and continue to emit large quantities of greenhouse gases recklessly, the increase in global temperature will be greatly increased, which will accelerate the melting of global glaciers, causing serious "catastrophic consequences". Because most of the human population is concentrated in coastal areas, if the sea level rises by 20 meters, basically all major coastal cities in the world will be submerged.
While this is happening on a "hundred-year" time scale, it's hard to say whether such things would be accelerated if humans didn't control greenhouse gas emissions.
This is why countries around the world attach so much importance to the Paris climate agreement. Although the United States once withdrew from the Paris climate agreement because of Trump, Biden has already stated that the first thing he did after taking office was to announce his return to the Paris climate agreement.
This is why new energy electric vehicles will become the mainstream development direction of the world's automobiles. Because car exhaust has always been the main source of greenhouse gas emissions. As long as human beings complete the replacement of new energy vehicles, greenhouse gas emissions will be greatly reduced.Therefore, countries around the world basically regard the development of new energy vehicles as the main means of reducing greenhouse gas emissions.
Combined with the recent two months, the global new energy vehicle sector has collectively skyrocketed. Tesla , as the leader of new energy vehicles, has even risen to a market value of 834.2 billion US dollars, which means that the market value of Tesla as a company, more than the combined market value of all other auto companies.
Although this is a very serious bubble, it is not difficult to see the most basic logic of the capital market swarming into the new energy sector, that is, under the framework of the Paris Climate Agreement, energy conservation and emission reduction are the priorities of all countries in the world. things to do.
Of course, now the new energy sector is generally seriously overvalued, and even asset price bubbles appear, especially Tesla’s most insane bubble, so those big capitals dare to buy, we small retail investors should not chase the high.
bitcoin , which just soared to over $40,000 yesterday, plummeted by 15% today to $34,000. This kind of skyrocketing and falling market is not something that small retail investors can play. Like Tesla, although it has been in a one-sided rise in the past two months, it is estimated that it will soon enter an extreme skyrocketing and falling market like Bitcoin.
Objectively speaking, the economic crisis that may be brought about by this asset bubble is eliminated. These big capitals will spare no effort to push up the valuation level of the overall global new energy companies. This is a process of accelerating the development of the new energy industry that is obviously consciously guided and promoted at the global national level. Giving high valuations through the capital market to accelerate industrial transformation.
It's just that with such a serious foaming problem now, both misfortunes and blessings depend, and fortunes and misfortunes lie, so in a short period of time, it is also unpredictable.
But in the long run, due to global warming, it will inevitably lead to the accelerated development of the world towards new energy. This is an instinctive choice that human beings must make in order to survive.
Therefore, if the global stock market plummets this year, there will be a wave of new energy sectors that have plummeted, and the industry leaders of various new energy are still good investment targets. The main problem now is that the price is too high and the valuation is serious. Bubble.
In addition, in fact, from the current surge in Tesla, we can also see some changes in "global capital".
I wrote an analysis in August of how we saved Tesla from bankruptcy.
In 2019, Tesla almost went bankrupt.
Musk once admitted that Tesla was only a month away from bankruptcy.
So how did Tesla come back to life?
Because of the olive branch we offered to Tesla, we not only gave Tesla the green light to become the first foreign enterprise to set up a wholly-owned factory in China, but also based on its tens of billions of yuan in loans, It is equivalent to the money borrowed from us to build Tesla's Shanghai Gigafactory.
For Tesla, whose capital chain is extremely tight in 2019, it is tantamount to giving help in the snow.
And Tesla's Shanghai Gigafactory will also contribute half of Tesla's production capacity in 2020. Tesla produced a total of 500,000 electric vehicles last year, of which the Shanghai Gigafactory produced 250,000.
And our domestic market also accounts for 1/4 of Tesla's sales.
More importantly, our super infrastructure attributes allowed the Tesla Shanghai factory to be completed and put into production in just one year, which is called the speed of light.
This brings hope to Tesla's serious capacity bottleneck in 2019.
in this way can create the glory of Tesla in 2020.
It can be said that we almost single-handedly contributed to Tesla becoming the world's largest company by market capitalization, and we also made Musk the new richest man in the world.
The key logic behind this is that we are the country with the largest development in the new energy industry in the world.
As a country that is not rich in oil resources, coupled with the fact that Shanghai's economic artery is in the hands of the United States, we have a strong demand for this transformation of the new energy industry.
This is why we are willing to undertake these emission reduction tasks that we should undertake in the Paris climate agreement.
Because energy conservation and emission reduction is in line with the needs of our entire strategic transformation, it helps to solve our national energy security.
From this point of view, Tesla's success has become more and more closely related to us. The only regret is that we did not take this opportunity to invest in Tesla when we gave Tesla in the snow in 2018.
But in fact Tesla's success is essentially based on China's success.
The favor of the U.S. capital market for Tesla is essentially optimistic about China’s future, because before the completion of Tesla’s Shanghai factory in 2019, the U.S. capital market still abandoned Tesla. Institutions have slammed Tesla, saying it is about to go bankrupt.
But when Tesla's Shanghai Gigafactory was completed and started mass production, everything turned around, and Tesla became the brightest star in the US stock market.
As you can see, the key to Tesla's recovery lies in China.
Tesla can regain the favor of the U.S. capital market. The most fundamental financial logic behind this is that China will inevitably surpass the United States in the next few decades and take the lead in world development.
This article comes from "The Great Vernacular Current Affairs".
Author: Xinghua Dabai.
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