reporter | Yin Qinglu
editor | Huang Yue
Do you know what a "perfect storm" is?
It is a climatic event that refers to a combination of rare meteorological phenomena that results in severe storms. In the 2000 movie of the same name starring George Clooney, a group of fishermen encountered rough waves while out at sea, and the boat was almost capsized. However, they overcame the difficulties and ushered in the beautiful morning glow.
Nowadays, the "perfect storm" is used as a metaphor for a crisis sweeping all mankind. United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres pointed out in his recent speech that when most countries finally recovered from the COVID-19 pandemic, the conflicts between Russia and Ukraine triggered energy, food and financial crises. They impacted the already fragile climate and widened the shrinking gap between developing and developed countries. These crises may appear to be independent of each other, but in fact they are deeply intertwined - as the climate approaches collapse, so do every aspect of life.
In this year’s review of global environmental events, what you will see is a series of entangled results. In part one, we look at the latest on climate change, as well as raging wildfires and floods, including a domestic drought that lasted from June to September. Most of the consequences of these incidents are borne by poor people from southern countries. Whether compensation can be made fairly and effectively is also one of the focuses of this article. These places - such as the Republic of Congo in Africa - are mostly sources of fossil minerals. With global natural gas prices soaring, how to export fuel to develop themselves without causing more warming is also a thorny problem.
Faced with many crises, the 2022 United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP27) and the Biodiversity Conference (COP15) were held. The latter was postponed from 2020 to this year due to the epidemic. It left Kunming, where the first phase was held, and went to Montreal, Canada. It can be described as twists and turns. Fortunately, new agreements were concluded at both conferences. On the one hand, they gave people hope, but they also left questions about whether they were binding and how they would be implemented.
Outside the venue, we also heard protests from ordinary people and a series of organizations. This year's "tomato can splashing painting" incident in the London Art Museum was a blockbuster. There was a lot of opposition to the destruction of art works, but why they chose this "extreme" method, how art works are inextricably linked to oil , and whether there are other ways to express opposition today that can attract attention, these questions are also worthy of our consideration.
Finally, we will pay attention to the current situation of species extinction and biological protection, and we will also find an obvious clue connecting all the above, that is fossil fuels. Sadly, we keep extracting fuel even though we know we should leave it in the ground.
01 Global extreme climate
Keywords: record-breaking high temperatures, wildfires, drought in China, floods in Pakistan
Global warming is an indisputable fact, and the extreme weather it causes is constantly breaking records. Climatologist Bill McGuire wrote about the extreme weather of recent years in his latest book, Hothouse Earth, but found that "the records were out of date before the book was published." McGuire believes that “maintaining 1.5°C of warming is impossible,” referring to the Paris Agreement’s commitment to limit warming to 1.5°C. The United Nations Environment Program also announced not long ago: "There is no longer any reliable way to achieve this goal."
According to the World Meteorological Organization report, from 2015 to 2022 has It has been the warmest eight years in the past. Since 1993, the rate of sea level rise has doubled and reached a new high this year. The record for the melting rate of glaciers has also been broken. The average thickness of the European Alps has lost more than 3 meters, greatly exceeding the previous record year of 2003. In terms of temperature rise, Europe has the highest increase in the world. The United Kingdom set a new national record on July 19, exceeding 40°C for the first time.In fact, the entire northern hemisphere is extremely hot. In the United States, California95% of the area is classified as severe or extreme drought. In the New York Times article "This is not the California I married," the author wrote that "California used to have magical beaches, mountains, and waves in Malibu." However, due to the increasingly dry weather, "all phenomena and ideas exist relative to wildfires."
In China, this summer’s heat wave has impressed many people. Days of 40°C have become the norm in many areas. Sichuan, Chongqing, Zhejiang, Hunan, Jiangxi and other places are particularly affected. This impression is not an illusion. This summer, China suffered its highest average temperature for the same period in history since 1961. A special article in " Caixin " pointed out that high temperatures not only mean heat, but also lead to meteorological drought and hydrological drought, and drought is the trigger of forest fires, shortages of water, electricity and drinking water. Throughout August, red warnings for forest fires were issued in many places in Chongqing. At least five forest fires broke out in places such as Fuling District and Banan District. In addition, dozens of rivers and reservoirs in the southwest have dried up. Both Poyang Lake and Dongting Lake have entered the dry season ahead of schedule. June to August should have been the wet season for Poyang Lake, but this year the water level fell below the record low, shrinking 69% of its area in 40 days.
What does the historic low water mark mean? The most direct consequence is water shortage. According to data released by the Sichuan Provincial Emergency Management Department, nearly 200,000 livestock in Sichuan farms lack drinking water, and approximately 433,000 hectares of crops are affected by water shortage. The drying up of rivers has also caused a shortage of water and electricity. In Sichuan, hydropower was originally the main power supply method, but the power generation capacity has been reduced by half this summer. In order to ensure that people have electricity, companies in Sichuan and Chongqing have had to turn to power outages. At the same time, all coal-fired power plants have started operating. So, in the view of many commentators, we are still burning coal to offset cuts in hydropower, even as high temperatures illustrate the consequences of burning fossil fuels and creating carbon emissions. According to official data, China's coal production hit a new high in 2021.
While China, the United States and Europe are suffering from heat waves, other places are experiencing floods. Under the high-intensity monsoon rainfall, floods occurred one after another in Pakistan, northeastern India, Bangladesh, Nigeria and other places in South Asia. Among them, Pakistan has attracted the most attention from the world. Since June, three-quarters of Pakistan has suffered floods. According to statistics from the International Rescue Committee (IRC), by the end of August, floods have hit nearly 33 million people, killing more than 1,000 people; heavy rains in Assam, northeastern India, also killed at least 150 people; in March this year, Australia also ushered in the worst floods since the founding of the country, with 22 deaths. It is worth noting that the most vulnerable people in floods are often women. Since disaster relief operations are mostly dominated by men and there is a lack of independent toilets in many places, it is often difficult for them to survive their menstruation and pregnancy. According to the IRC survey, the disaster in Pakistan left 84% of women without access to sanitary products, and 63% of pregnant and lactating women were "extremely vulnerable." In the disaster-stricken areas of Bangladesh, as many as 60,000 women were pregnant, but major hospitals were damaged by floods.
Although they are completely opposite in appearance, whether they are more frequent droughts or floods, they are both caused by climate warming. The World Weather Attribution Team (WWA) pointed out through model calculations that in the absence of global high temperatures, rainfall like the one in South Asia would be extremely rare, but now it is expected to occur once every ten years. This is because warmer air contains more moisture, and the moisture that accumulates in the atmosphere will stay longer and dump out in a very short time, reaching a month or a week's rainfall in a few hours to a few days, which increases the duration of droughts and floods.
02 Energy crisis
Keywords: Russia-Ukraine conflict, cost of living crisis, nuclear fusion energy
As we all know, the culprit of extreme weather is carbon dioxide, and fossil fuels cause the main carbon emissions.Scientists warn us that if burning is not stopped immediately to achieve the 1.5°C target, catastrophic consequences will follow, and even the weather in recent years will only be a harbinger of mild weather.
However, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine has obviously hindered this process. In Ukraine, violent shelling has polluted the air, water and land. The Assistant Minister of Environment of Ukraine said that soil pollution alone has caused losses of 11.4 billion euros. In addition, the United States and Europe successively cut off oil supplies from Russia in the spring. However, the International Energy Agency (IEA) warned in July that after a long summer heat wave, when the weather turns cold, heating problems caused by fuel shortages may trigger an energy crisis and a cost of living crisis comparable to the oil price shock of 1970. This fear has been confirmed, with households in Europe, the United States, Australia and other places falling into a crisis of poverty, inflation and soaring energy bills.
Therefore, how to provide residents with affordable electricity while addressing climate change has become a tricky matter. This has forced many countries to focus on short-term goals, either returning to coal-fired power generation or rushing to find new sources of energy - even if it means producing more carbon emissions. In Germany, the Minister of Economy and Energy announced the reopening of some coal power plants and nuclear power plants; while US President Joe Biden, who has always promised to make climate change a priority, released 180 million barrels of oil from the National Strategic Petroleum Reserve. In July, he met with the President of Saudi Arabia, which was seen by many analysts as an action to ensure that Saudi Arabia increases oil production.
So, have carbon emissions increased this year compared to 2021? The answer is yes. According to data from the Global Carbon Project, global emissions are 1% higher than in 2021. But there is also good news. Unlike most people’s imagination, the International Energy Agency predicts that this energy crisis will accelerate the transition of countries to clean energy, not the other way around. In fact, many countries have increased their use of wind, solar, hydrogen, and nuclear energy in response to soaring natural gas prices. The U.S. Congress has passed a new climate bill, and Japan is also implementing a "green transition" plan. Due to the reduction in imported fuel, European solar power generation has increased by nearly 50% compared with last year, and has become what the European Solar Energy Association considers "a lifeline in the climate crisis."
Just in December, another exciting news came out. American researchers announced that after half a century of hard work, nuclear fusion energy, known as the "Holy Grail of clean energy," has made new progress. They have achieved "net energy gain" for the first time, that is, the energy output is greater than the input. However, some scientists poured cold water on it in time, pointing out that it will take at least several decades to build a nuclear fusion power station, and the top priority is still to solve the current crisis.
03 Protest in art gallery
Keywords: Just Stop Oil, Extinction Rebellion, Insulation UK
Amid Europe’s cost of living crisis this winter, UK climate justice group Just Stop Oil's protest actions sparked controversy: In October, two young protesters walked into the National Gallery in London, opened two cans of Heinz tomato soup, threw them at Van Gogh's famous painting "Sunflowers", and shouted to the audience: "Do you care more about a painting, or about protecting our planet and humanity?"
Independent analysts pointed out that this move was deliberately timed, that is, after the UK launched a new round of oil and gas licensing. In September, former British Prime Minister John Truss announced an increase in oil and gas extraction in the North Sea and the lifting of a ban on hydraulic fracturing (fracking is a technology for extracting oil and gas from shale, which environmentalists often believe will pollute groundwater). However, experts said that since it takes an average of 28 years from the issuance of a permit to the production of oil, this will not alleviate the current cost of living crisis at all, but will directly undermine the UK's climate goals.
People's analysis of events shows different orientations. According to an interview with sociology professor Dana Fisher by The Washington Post, many environmentalists agree with the goals of the protesters (that fossil fuels must be phased out), but believe that the action itself will alienate support from the public.Some people also affirmed their strategy. The Guardian's comment pointed out that this behavior was "outrageous but harmless" (Van Gogh's paintings were not damaged and were re-exhibited after identification). The young people's behavior may seem to endanger their own freedom, but in fact they are avoiding greater harm. The media's "The Conversation" comment based on the relationship between art and big oil companies pointed out that art museums have long been funded by fossil fuel companies, which makes artworks a legitimate target to combat the power of oil companies.
Just Stop Oil’s approach did not come out of nowhere, but was an extension of earlier climate justice groups – Insulated UK and Extinction Rebellion (or XR). Looking back at its development history, we will find that environmental groups often have to constantly update their strategies and outlook in order to slowly advance their agenda.
XR's goal and mobilization are broad-based, namely to use mass civil disobedience to force governments to tell the truth about the climate and ecological crisis, halt the loss of biodiversity, and commit to net-zero emissions by 2050. Their actions have also achieved great results. In 2018, more than a thousand people flocked to the Thames Bridge, causing London's largest act of civil disobedience in decades, and finally prompted the British Parliament to declare a climate emergency.
In 2021, six members of XR founded Insulation UK, which asked the government to improve the insulation performance of social housing in the UK by 2025. Compared with cutting fuel, this is already the fastest action the government can take. In November, the Autumn Budget finally set aside £6 billion for home insulation and provided grants to middle-income households to make their homes more energy efficient, something the group welcomed. In contrast, Just Stop Oil, a rising star, has received more attention than its two predecessors this year, but its core demands have not been met—the government is still actively issuing new oil and gas licenses. However, in the eyes of the protesters, even if the results of the movement are not obvious, even if they are disgusted, any method is worthwhile due to the urgency of the crisis.
04 Climate crisis and inequality
Keywords: Wealth gap, South and North, COP27
The climate crisis is not only a scientific issue, but also a social issue related to poverty and inequality. This can be seen in the current energy crisis. In August, United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres said: "Oil and gas companies are making profits during the crisis, and this absurd greed is punishing the poorest and most vulnerable people."
Social/economic justice is a fundamental pillar of climate justice, and neither can exist without the other. The sixth report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) focuses on "adaptation and vulnerability". The report points out that 3.5 billion people, including nearly half of the world’s population, are already extremely vulnerable to climate impacts.
Looking at the distribution of wealth alone, the emissions produced by the richest 1% of the world's population are more than twice those of the poorest 50%, but the latter have to bear the consequences of the former. Starting in July, celebrities and rich people became the target of public criticism. Just as the world was suffering from heat waves and wildfires, the Kardashian family Kylie Jenner posted a photo with a private jet and was violently attacked by Twitter users. This quickly evolved into a climate justice movement—— Many celebrities, including Musk and Taylor Swift, were criticized; in November, more than 500 activists blocked entrances to private airports in at least 13 countries to express their dissatisfaction with the excessive emissions of greenhouse gases by the wealthy.
From a regional perspective, the vulnerability of the global South is much higher than that of the North. This is not only because the tropics/subtropics are more susceptible to high temperatures, but also has historical reasons. Since the Industrial Revolution, the North has mined and burned fossil fuels from the South, while the South has been subject to debt slavery by financial institutions. The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic has slowed their ability to recover. Without adaptation funds, a rapidly changing climate will disrupt rescue plans.Pakistan is the best example. The country's carbon footprint is less than 1% of the world's total. In the absence of external assistance, they just rebuilt the destroyed bridges after the 2010 floods, but they were washed away again this year.
This points to a very important point, that is, developed countries should provide aid funds to developing countries. The issue, known on the negotiating table as "loss and damage", was raised in 1991 to compensate for irreversible harm caused by climate change. At COP19 in Copenhagen in 2009, countries including the United States, Canada, Australia and the United Kingdom pledged to provide $100 billion per year to poor countries by 2020. However, they often delayed payments and the funds were mostly loans rather than grants, resulting in this goal not being fulfilled so far. What makes the situation even more serious is that at the COP26 held in Glasgow in 2021, although participating countries agreed to establish a framework for loss and damage, no clear agreement was reached.
So, what was the outcome of the COP27 that just concluded in Sharm el-Sheikh, Egypt? It is gratifying that the General Assembly reached an agreement on the establishment of a "Loss and Damage Fund", which is regarded by many commentators as its greatest legacy and a paradigm change in thinking, even though there is still no agreement on the size of the fund, its governance structure and how much each country should contribute. In another development, many countries are calling for urgent reforms to the World Bank and public financial institutions because they are failing to help poor countries adapt to climate change.
Compared with this issue, the issue of limiting global warming has disappointed many people. In 2021, the "Glasgow Contract" established the goal of "gradually reducing fossil fuels." On this basis, some countries, led by India, hope to go further and commit to "phasing out fossil fuels." However, the COP27 "Contract" does not mention this, and there is no text about reaching an emission peak before 2025. Some countries - including Saudi Arabia, the world's second-largest oil producer - oppose the 1.5°C warming target. Alok Sharma, the chairman of COP26, even said in despair: "I said in Glasgow that the pulse of 1.5℃ is weak, and unfortunately, it still needs all-out rescue."
The results of the rising restrictions are not satisfactory, but it also shows how huge changes have taken place in the world in just one year. Many countries have just slowly recovered from the collapse of the new coronavirus epidemic, and they have to deal with energy shortages, making the carbon reduction and goals also have to give way to "pragmatic" compensation issues. This dilemma also echoes another focus of the conference: Amid the energy crisis, should Africa be supported in exporting fuel to develop itself? As shown above, the surge in natural gas prices has caused Europe to turn its attention to other countries' rich minerals , and African countries also vigorously promoted investment in fossil fuels at the summit. The focus of the dispute lies on the contradiction between environmental protection goals and improving people's living standards. African telecommunications giant Mohamed Ibrahim said that mining can provide electricity to the poor and bring a good life, but it will also make mining companies profitable and lead to increased climate warming.
Perhaps the real question is, are "reducing fossil burning" and "aiding the poor" really contradictory? In fact, research shows that 54% of clean energy minerals - such as lithium, nickel and manganese - are located on the land of indigenous peoples. They do not lack reasons to invest in clean energy, but as United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres commented: "Developed countries just blindly urge them, but do not provide technical and financial support."
05 Biodiversity
Keywords: high temperature and habitat, President of Brazil, white sturgeon and dugong, COP15
On November 15, the United Nations announced that the earth's population exceeded the 8 billion mark. At the same time, other species are disappearing. In the "Living Planet Report" released by the World Wildlife Fund (WWF), 1 million species are at risk of extinction since 1970, and the number of wild animals has dropped by 69%. The decline in Latin America and the Caribbean is much greater than in other regions. Among all species in the world, freshwater species have suffered the most serious decline.As American journalist Elizabeth Kolbert asserts in her book The Sixth Great Extinction, human-caused extinction has already arrived.Many people will argue that the species crisis and the climate crisis are separate, and that the former, although serious, is not as important as the goal of "carbon emissions". This can be seen in the two previous world summits - the 15th United Nations International Conference on Biodiversity (COP15), chaired by China, just concluded in Montreal, but it received far less media attention than the United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP27).
But in fact, the two crises are inextricably linked. The most direct is the impact of high temperatures or wildfires on wildlife. In the "State of the World's Birds" report released every four years by BirdLife International, this year's special emphasis is on the destruction of bird habitats by wildfires; also losing habitats is the koala. Due to years of raging forest fires, the Australian government has declared the koala an endangered species. Outside of land, the "marine heat wave" has caused a 90% drop in coral reefs in the Mediterranean Sea. This is because the seawater temperature in some areas this summer is 6°C higher than the same period in previous years.
Wildfires and rising temperatures also affect the resilience of forests. In 2021, 11.1 million hectares of trees were lost in the tropics from the Brazilian Amazon to the Congo Basin, and the Siberian fires also caused a devastating blow to Siberian forests. But to the relief of scientists, in October, former Brazilian President Lula da Silva was re-elected as the new president. In the previous three years, under the policies of far-right President Jair Bolsonaro, the Amazon rainforest suffered severe deforestation. After taking office, Lula promised to crack down on illegal logging and agricultural expansion and rebuild the ecosystem. However, many local think tanks also point out that logging is just the tip of the iceberg, and that there are many illegal miners and violent groups in the rainforest area, which will make it difficult for Lula to carry out his work.
This year, the most regrettable thing for domestic species in China is the extinction of the Yangtze River paddlefish and dugong. However, the dugong has been deemed "functionally extinct in China", meaning that the population has been reduced to the point where it cannot reproduce, but there may be surviving individuals, while the paddlefish has been declared officially extinct by the World Conservation Union (IUCN). The common reasons for their demise are overfishing and habitat loss. Dugongs eat and live on seagrass. This unique habitat is rapidly degraded due to domestic coastal development and water pollution. Dugongs also live in East Africa and New Caledonia, and they are facing destruction from oil and gas exploration, chemical pollution and mining. As for the Yangtze River white sturgeon, as mentioned by researcher Wei Qiwei in a previous interview with Jiemian, even if a ten-year fishing ban plan for the Yangtze River is released in 2020, it will not be able to prevent changes in water conditions after the establishment of dams.
Whether it's rainforests, oceans or freshwater lakes, protecting habitats has always been key to maintaining biodiversity. This is also the most important goal of this year's COP15 - signing an agreement and committing to protecting 30% of land, oceans, coastal areas and inland waters by 2030. Other requirements include reducing invasive species by 50%, eliminating plastic waste, and recognizing the rights of indigenous peoples in protecting biological organisms. To the joy of many, the Convention on Biological Diversity, which includes this commitment called “30x30”, did pass. Some people also believe that since the last and previous biodiversity summit failed to achieve the goals set and biodiversity is still declining, this summit is likely to be just some "blah blah blah" and "empty promises" as environmental girl Greta Thunberg said. More people have mixed feelings, feeling that the agreement has positive historical significance but also worrying about whether it can be implemented. At the end of
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hesitates between despair and hope, which also illustrates one point: the world is no longer "normal", but it is not completely hopeless "doomsday". We live on a continuum, but the continuum is accelerating.
If we want to escape like George Clooney at the beginning of this article, we need closer cooperation among professionals from all walks of life, such as global scientific cooperation. Economists and epidemiologists should no longer do their own thing, but transform knowledge into an understanding of systemic risks; as ordinary people, we should also be aware of how climate change affects ideology and how it is affected in turn. Only in this way can the earth still have a glimmer of hope, and our descendants can live with more dignity.
(Unless otherwise noted, the pictures in this article are from Visual China)
