COVID-19 has become history, the haze that has hung over us for three years is dissipating, and we are moving towards a new future. The wind and rain retreated unexpectedly. We didn’t even have time to close our umbrellas, let alone whether there would be a rainbow after the wind

The new crown has become history. The haze that has hung over us for three years is dissipating, and we are moving towards a new future.

The wind and rain retreated unexpectedly. We didn’t have time to close our umbrellas, let alone whether there would be a rainbow after the wind and rain.

From the initial emergency to becoming a standard part of life, this major historical periodic event with the participation of all the people has exposed everyone to the wind and rain, and no one has been spared, but the degree is different.

We all have a question, what will we face next? There are several problems with

.

Will 2023 return to the past?

This is a false proposition. As the sun and the moon change, and the stars change, we cannot go back to any time in the past. Heraclitus said: It is impossible for a person to step into the same river twice. That's the truth. Even if the epidemic is over, life will not continue as it was in 2019. Why?

The mentality has changed.

When we are quiet at night, we can calm down and think about the impact of the new crown on our psychology. This is not a simple matter, because the new crown has become a part of our lives, and its psychological impact on us is difficult to detect, just like you can't feel the flow of your own blood.

• Recently, a program called "Science and Technology China·Academician Lecture" invited Chinese Academy of Sciences academician and clinical psychologist Lu Lin, who said that due to the global spread and long-term persistence of the new coronavirus epidemic, it will affect human mental health, and this impact may last as long as 20 years. Lu Lin pointed out that the outbreak of the new crown epidemic has increased the probability of PTSD among the public, in addition to other types of mental illnesses.

• PTSD, the full Chinese name is post-traumatic stress disorder , refers to a person who has sustained or delayed mental disorder after experiencing or witnessing a human death event, or being threatened by death, or having the integrity of the body threatened. It may be a bit abstract to say this, but there are three main symptoms of PTSD, namely avoidance and numbing symptoms, symptoms of increased vigilance, and traumatic re-experiencing symptoms.

• Translated, it means that we are more sensitive and anxious to unpredictable crises. All of this stems from the poor health, work difficulties, and life inconveniences we have experienced due to the epidemic, as well as the helplessness and despair we have seen and heard in critical moments, all of which have subtly changed our psychology.

We who were originally anxious have become more sensitive and anxious.

Changes in mentality are the root of all changes.

• Everything is different. We no longer consume recklessly, no longer work desperately, no longer have a drink now, and are no longer absolutely optimistic about the future.

Secondly, lifestyles have changed.

• Under the epidemic, online lifestyles have been vigorously promoted, including live broadcasts, group purchases, DD shopping, takeaways, etc. Livestream shopping and takeout ordering have become a generally recognized lifestyle. First, it can save money, and secondly, it is convenient.

• China’s live broadcast e-commerce market will exceed 3.4 trillion in 2022, with an annual growth rate of 53%. It is expected to exceed 4.9 trillion next year. People who used to sneer at live streaming shopping all said it tasted great after their first experience. Why? One is cheap, the other is lazy, and the third is interesting. Live shopping upgrades online shopping to 2.0, placing low prices and deals nakedly in the live broadcast room. It is simple and crude, but efficient, and greatly caters to consumers in the fast-paced era.

• However, when our basic life needs can be easily solved online, we have more energy to pay attention to our other needs, such as seeing novel things, understanding other people's lives, and enjoying beautiful scenery. Some people choose to do it in person, so we see more and more cycling, hiking, seclusion, and RV travel. Some people choose to experience these fun online with their eyes.

• But when we return to our humble life, our anxiety only increases. We are worried about unemployment, fear of getting sick, dare not consume, take care of the young and old, take postgraduate and public examinations, study for courses and exams, and are crazy about involution. When we are tired, we can only enjoy ourselves in short videos and TV series.

• We pay more and more attention to life itself and begin to question the meaning of life, because we have been running in the past, but we have forgotten why we set out. But I can only step in the mud with both feet, and occasionally look up at the blue sky and white clouds above my head.

Furthermore, the economic environment has changed.

html In the past 73 years, traditional gold-financed industries such as real estate and finance have been in decline. A large number of industries that were once high-growth and high-profit have entered a trough. So you hear a lot of words: it is really hard to make money these days. In the past, I was humble and wanted to make a fortune quietly, but now it is really difficult to make money.

• Live broadcast has shortened the sales chain and compressed profit margins. The information gap of a large number of basic products has become smaller and smaller. Those who have seized the live broadcast trend have made money, but a large number of operators who have not caught up with this wave of bonus are struggling. The economy is a cycle. When people can't make money, they will reduce consumption, and reducing consumption will cause people to make even less money.

• Confidence is more valuable than gold. The epidemic has damaged our confidence in the future, and we have become more cautious and negative. Fisher equation in monetary demand theory MV = PT. M is the average quantity of currency in circulation in a certain period, V is the currency circulation velocity, P is the weighted average of the prices of various commodities, and T is the transaction quantity of various commodities. When a dollar in your hand remains uncirculated in your pocket, V in the equation will decrease, and commodity transactions will decrease, resulting in a decline in GDP and an economic decline. To put it simply, as the big cake becomes smaller, the bite you get will naturally become smaller.

Of course, don’t be pessimistic. Maybe everything is a normal elimination of economic development and social progress. We have seen that fields such as chip manufacturing, new energy, 5G, artificial intelligence , etc. are booming. These industries that sound high-end are really high-end, and they are full of knowledge and technology. It is indeed they who are leading our lives to continuously innovate. Perhaps everything we experience is the necessary price to become better.

So, what kind of year will we usher in in 2023?

1. When spring blooms next year, we will feel a short-term prosperity.

On December 26, 2022, the National Health Commission adjusted the new coronavirus infection from "Category B A Control" to "Category B B Control", which means that the new crown epidemic has officially come to an end and everything should return to normal.

• From full liberalization to herd immunity , most of us need to be positive once, which will take about 3 months, so it is expected that the flowers will bloom in the spring next year At that time, the haze of the epidemic has completely dissipated. We can take off our masks and take a deep breath. The burdens such as green codes, itinerary codes, nucleic acid, and isolation that once weighed on us will be swept away. After losing the basic conveniences of life, we will especially cherish this freedom that was once not worth mentioning, just like a seriously ill person regaining health.

• html The spring breeze in December will make the atmosphere even more enthusiastic. The rapeseed flowers all over the mountains and the warm sunshine will make us sigh from the bottom of our hearts: Life is so beautiful!

• At the same time, as our activities are no longer restricted, economic activities will begin to resume. Some people have hope, and only by taking action can their dreams come true. People will move, the front will move, and all walks of life will see a certain degree of growth. Of course, if you have money, you will feel better.

However, these benefits are relatively worse than the epidemic. Just like being transferred from ICU to a general ward, the road to recovery is still long.

2. Some industries will get better, and some industries will still be depressed.

Tourism will definitely be popular.

We miss the wind in the mountains and the clouds in the sky so much. No matter what, everyone will go out and embrace nature. Those who have money can go on vacation, and those who have no money can go on a budget trip.

As our society develops beyond the stage of basic material satisfaction, more and more people are beginning to pay attention to spiritual needs. People come from nature and ultimately yearn for nature. Even if there is no epidemic, the tourism industry will maintain growth for a certain period of time.

The traditional basic necessities, food, housing and transportation industries will be better than during the epidemic, but they will not be better than before the epidemic. First, due to the online impact, live broadcasts and online shopping are in full swing. Small factories can sell goods nationwide with just one live broadcast room, subverting the traditional model. Second, because of the epidemic, everyone’s income has been affected and they have reduced their expenses. Third, the needs of the broad masses of the people have changed from basic material satisfaction to needs that are richer, more connotative, and more personalized.

3. House prices will stop falling and rise again

You may be criticized for saying this, but it is most likely the case. The rise in housing prices does not mean that there is a general rise. In recent years, the country's first development pattern has basically been finalized. The economic gap between the north and the south, the gap between the first and second tiers and the third and fourth tiers, resource allocation and development positioning have basically taken shape.

In any era and in any region, there are high-quality resources. Of course, this is relative, so only the possession of high-quality resources can occupy the C position. Even if there are several core areas and traffic centers in the 18th-tier towns, there are still local snakes that control water resources in poor places in Africa. If you think about it carefully, even our villages have high-quality resources.

Therefore, high-quality cities are scarce in China, and high-quality resources are also scarce in cities. Let’s look at the top ten cities in China. Which one is not striving for development? The development trend is far from stopping. As long as development continues and resources continue to be concentrated, the value will continue to rise and prices will naturally rise.

Of course, most housing prices in third-, fourth- and fifth-tier cities will continue to be stable. The previous decline has almost been reduced. The next step is to have residential properties that are suitable for people’s income levels.

4. We will pay more attention to education

reading, and reading books well will become an important way for us to resist uncertain risks in the future.

• From a development perspective, the development of human society is driven by knowledge. Only with strong enough knowledge and skills can we become the main force in promoting social development and stand at the forefront. The Internet, new energy, and chips are all high-profile stages for intellectuals. The purpose of education is to occupy a place among them.

• From a competitive perspective, human society is a group game. Personal success depends largely on how many people we stand on, that is, relative advantage, just like there are several big households in a village. Reading books well is a beneficial way to defeat your competitors. No matter what the general environment is, reading books well can at least ensure your relative advantage.

5. Return to first- and second-tier cities

• The epidemic has done great harm to big cities, but they also recover faster. The wave of returning home that started before the epidemic was because we had a certain amount of capital, began to consider another possibility of survival, and realized the significance of our hometown to us. However, after the epidemic, all walks of life have been in recession, investment and entrepreneurship have shrunk, and the capital we had as a hometown in a small city has been lost.

• The resource gathering power of first- and second-tier cities determines that they will recover faster. They will redouble their efforts to make up for the three years lost to the epidemic. They will summon people who have left, and they will attract us who feel lost in our hometowns.

In the end, we became one of the bustling crowds at the intersection.The pursuit of dreams will not stop. The Chinese people have extremely strong resilience. In remote mountain villages and bustling cities, you can see countless people who are carrying a heavy life and moving forward with determination. Maybe one day we will return to our hometown, maybe we will settle in the city. No matter where we are, we have hope in our hearts.