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After the adjustment of prevention and control, several judgments on the economic trend of China at the micro level
December 2022, China's epidemic prevention and control policy under this general background, some restless and exaggerated views began to brew in the Internet and social public opinion environment.
Some marketing accounts and bad-minded big Vs have even started to set the pace:
Real estate is about to recover, the stock market is about to recover, fund is about to recover...
In short, except for the national football team (men), all walks of life are about to recover. The situation is very good, and I feel like I just came out of ICU and headed straight to the nightclub.
For the country, confidence and expectations at the market and the public are of course very important, but for this blind optimistic and even impetuous argument, I hope everyone will be more sober and rational.
Three years of great epidemic, all living beings suffer, but the improvement of difficulties will not allow some ugly and greedy human nature to be educated.
Everyone understands what this sentence means?
is difficult to change one's nature. The group that once relied on hype and achieved the goal of cutting leeks is basically the group of people who are the most happy and the most violent. Don't think it's rude. There is a saying that one counts one and no exception.
The most basic economic principle: has no demand, and there will be no business.
In recent years, everyone has few more people in their pockets, and various demands have dropped to the lowest point.
How can you make money without demand?
So, with this wave of major policy adjustments, various provocative words came out again.
After all, as long as the policy is relaxed, everything will be fine.
, especially the economy, will usher in a "rising wealth opportunity".
From a rational perspective, everyone think about this question carefully: How can the three-year epidemic damage be recovered instantly?
Therefore, based on the general background of the relaxation of prevention and control, here we talk about some conscientious and pragmatic microeconomic direction views:
1, There is still great uncertainty in the epidemic. The "first impact" after the liberalization may become another test for China's economy.
Not to mention the distance, the upcoming Spring Festival travel rush in 2023 faces great uncertainty. The virus transmission before
is basically rare in county towns, especially in rural areas.
But now after it is released, can these places still "maintain their own safety"?
In addition, if the "first wave of shocks" really appear after the liberalization, what will the society and economy look like? Who can truly predict?
2, the virus has not disappeared, it has just evolved, which is very important.
dynamically cleared into the past, from the delta , which is slightly infectious but has a very strong mortality rate, to the Omickron evolution strain, which is now extremely infectious but has a very much weaker mortality rate. However, it seems that the Omickron evolution strain cannot be prevented at all. Unless everyone does not go out of the door, the virus may never clear it.
So, after the prevention and control is relaxed, the publicity of human fireworks is overwhelming, which is not wrong, but has the economic environment, especially micro entities, really turned around with the epidemic?
If you have the opportunity, go to friends around you who are doing catering to learn about the situation, or pay attention to the business situation of dine-in catering after the epidemic is relaxed.
In fact, the psychological threat of the virus and the austerity effect on social mobility will continue to be an inevitable stage of intensification after the relaxation of prevention and control, and this effect is even more fierce than the impact of the epidemic prevention and control period.
used to strictly prevent and control it, and it was safe to go out. Now it is a prevention and control adjustment, and going out is dangerous.
Before the virus curbs psychology and action, the micro-economy may have to bear more difficult adjustments and pressures.
3. Any economic recovery in the early stage of is the first to jump out of hype, speculation, cheating and other people are rushing to the point, without exception.
The changes in the environment in the era will not change some essential things. Whether it is making money from the national crisis during the epidemic or making a trap after the prevention and control is liberalized, the most active ones are actually a group of people.
To put it bluntly, this is because dogs can’t change their shit, and bad people will always be bad people.
The most common thing is to use policy trends, promote opportunities, promote projects and products, and try every means to make the market and the people who have been suppressed for a long time pay.
Don't be stupid.
During this period of time after the prevention and control was released, what some people want to make is the money that the people have kept up to now, or the bottom of the box.
There is no need to use morality to criticize such groups and behaviors, just like not expecting any bad person to find a meaning in his conscience.
Self-protection is the right way.
Of course, the above judgments are not to pour cold water on it, nor to discuss whether prevention and control and policy adjustments are right or wrong. It is just to respect reality from a micro level, combine logic and rational analysis.
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Ordinary people, if they want to change their destiny, they must face several major thresholds
Of course, the real environment and trends are judged in this way, which does not mean that ordinary people will not have the opportunity to change their destiny in the post-epidemic era, and there will be no possibility of breaking through themselves. However, before the opportunities in reality come, there are several more important thresholds that cannot be avoided.
The first threshold is to receive education and cultivate skills.
The core value and significance of education in the economy and society is that provides a classification standard, which is academic qualification certification .
The learning and mastering of skills is actually the basic background of the realization of personal value in the economic and social environment.
Both are indispensable. Otherwise, even if luck and the wind vent are placed in front of you, you will not be able to catch up or keep up.
Learning in a good year and studying in a bad year. At different times, there is always something to do.
The second threshold is: choose the right industry and follow the right person.
No matter what the times and environment are, most ordinary people cannot avoid this path, that is, always has to choose an industry, a company to create value and gain wealth.
The gap between the industry and the industry is much larger than the gap in individual single-point strength.
men are afraid of choosing the wrong line, which means this. Therefore, industry choice is actually the second inaccessible threshold that determines the fate of most people.
The third threshold is, it is poor and empty. If you want to break through the ceiling, you must either have expert advice or be supported by noble people.
Many ordinary people have been trapped in the hallucination of overestimating their abilities for the rest of their lives and are unable to extricate themselves.
Whether it is investment, business, or life development, when encountering setbacks and failures, they will always blame the environment and the times, and always think that they are full of abilities, but they are just born at the wrong time and are covered with dust. With an attitude and group like
, it is simply incompatible with nature that you will not be ups and downs in your life and will not be dragged down by poverty.
All the stories of starting from scratch are actually supported and helped by noble people, or there are guidance and guidance from experts. No exception.
It’s a pity that the three thresholds, like three sieves, have come down layer by layer, allowing many people to be ruthlessly eliminated in this process without knowing it.
Experts are not necessarily mysterious and high-end philosophers, nor are nobles who are rich and powerful. They mainly depend on their own attitude.
I feel that I am "the best in the world" all day long, I can do everything, the smartest in the world, and I often live a tragic life in reality. This sentence
is given to the group who argue and thinks they are self-righteous under my previous article.
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Trend judgment: What directions are worth paying attention to in the post-epidemic era? The link of
is based on reality and rationally analyzes and discusses the opportunities and directions in the post-epidemic era and China's economic environment from two dimensions:
The first question: What are the inevitable and reliable recovery signals of the true recovery of the economic environment?
The second question is, after the prevention and control is liberalized, which industries of can achieve the first recovery?
It is crucial for ordinary people to see the signals of economic recovery clearly and to correctly judge the trend of economic recovery.
Economic recovery cannot be achieved by blowing. Here are five important signs of recovery reference:
1, the income of the residents' sector increases and the prosperity of the employment market is an important foundation, and it cannot be seen from any data and expert views;
2, the market confidence is restored, especially in the field of fixed asset investment, private capital uses real money and silver to invest;
3, the tightness of the country's invisible debt management is an important trend to observe economic recovery, such as high interest rates among private capital;
3, the tightness of the country's invisible debt management is an important trend to observe economic recovery, such as high interest rates among private capital. The survival of loans must depend on economic prosperity;
4, observe the national level, top-level design attitude towards financial risks, the real recovery stage is tightening, economic difficulties, and it is necessary to relax appropriately;
5, observe the currency circulation in the market, this data and analysis report are not reliable, just look at the yield of risk-free assets (treasury bonds), the economic prosperity and recovery, the economic environment requires money, and the treasury bonds will inevitably have a downward yield, and vice versa.
combined with the economic environment after the relaxation of prevention and control, several industries will become the first direction to recover and make efforts:
1. Industry supported by resources will be the first to recover: cash is king, resources are king, this is the logic of today's era.
2, the industry that concerns people's livelihood needs is the first to recover: the basic needs of food, clothing, housing and transportation will be repaired first, but the remaining ones are king, and survivors who can survive in the three years of epidemic prevention and control will basically not give any opportunities to the new speculative group.
3, the country's pillar industries will be the first to recover: some pillar industries that are related to the lifeline of the country's economy will recover quickly.
is mainly concentrated in industries related to the three major driving forces of China's economy. This is not a requirement, but a requirement.
Back to the style and logic of China's macroeconomic management, the process of repairing the fundamentals of cannot allow speculative mentality and profit-seeking capital to participate, so basically these speculative capitals will create anxiety, use the policy environment, and harvest downward.
is the same as what I analyzed above. I have to be careful and have to be vigilant.
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at the end:
Based on the current reality, some personal opinions are shared
After the prevention and control adjustment, there is a joke on the Internet that is very popular, that is, "If you still can't make money in the future, you can't use the epidemic as an excuse."
is said very well, and I also see the essence:
economic pressure is not caused by the epidemic. Before the outbreak of the epidemic, the former central bank president said at the forum that global leaders are worried about the economy, and global economy may move towards long-term slow growth.
For the economy, the epidemic is more like frost that adds insult to snow. It’s like cold air coming in winter. No matter whether you turn on the fan or not, it will feel cold. Turn on the fan will just be colder.
Many people especially like to use "Winter is here, will spring be far away?" to pour chicken soup.
But everyone must remember that winter is not that easy, no matter whether it is the era or individual.
The most important thing in winter is that it is not that you will not be cold if you think about spring.
Instead, you need to cover your winter clothes tightly.
For individuals, the gradual relaxation of prevention and control and the return of economic order to normalize are just the beginning, and we must seize the time to stockpile grain for the winter.
In the short term after the prevention and control is liberalized, perhaps the economic sense may be more difficult than in the past three years. Is this a positive psychological statement?
Of course, it is inevitable to be optimistic about China's economic recovery and resilience in the medium and long term, but medium and long term expectations cannot solve the current survival problems, which is very realistic.
Although most ordinary Chinese people hope that the economy will improve immediately and everyone will have a stable income, this is just a wish.
recovery takes time, and it also takes time to regain confidence. I just hope this time can be faster.
Be rational, there are always "opportunities of getting rich", but the premise is that you must survive and live well to seize such opportunities.
Spring is not here, so don’t be impatient and wait for recovery. The right way is.
weekend writing, there is no serious analysis or complicated data, record and share some personal thoughts and opinions, and I don’t like it, so I will share it with you.
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According to the latest regulations of relevant national departments, the content and opinions of this article are for reference only and do not constitute any clear suggestions on property purchase, investment, etc., and the risk of entering the market is at your own risk. )
or above text, from @Panda Beibei Little Cute
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