According to Hunan's 14th Five-Year Plan for Urbanization, it is proposed to build 11 medium-sized cities, of which 6 prefecture-level cities are on the list, namely Chenzhou, Shaoyang, Yiyang, Huaihua, Yongzhou, loudi.
What is a medium-sized city? Medium-sized cities refer to cities with an urban population of 500,000 to 1 million. So the question arises again, what is urban population?
Urban population refers to the permanent population of streets and communities under the jurisdiction of a municipal district. This is a statistical concept. Of course, urban construction departments have different definitions of urban population.
If it is a county town, it naturally refers to the population of the communities under the street. Although
is at the same level as districts and counties, streets and towns, communities and villages in our country, the meanings expressed are different, so there are statistical differences.
These six prefecture-level cities in Hunan have been clearly listed as medium-sized cities for construction. Is this a good thing or a bad thing?
Medium-sized cities belong to the lower-middle level of my country's urban system, with large cities at the top and small cities at the bottom. For counties and cities, it is certainly a good thing to be able to build medium-sized cities, which shows that they are relatively strong.
But for prefecture-level cities, if the provincial target is only medium-sized cities, it means that the overall strength is not too strong.
In fact, if we analyze these six prefecture-level cities carefully, we can find a common phenomenon. According to the 2021 Urban Construction Statistical Yearbook, the urban population of these six prefecture-level cities has exceeded 500,000, entering the ranks of medium-sized cities.
As mentioned before, there is actually a difference in the demographic caliber of urban areas in the urban construction statistical yearbook and the statistics department census. The urban construction statistical yearbook adopts the population of built-up areas, which is more stringent than the urban population statistics.
But for prefecture-level cities, these two statistical calibers will not change much, and the data are basically consistent.
These six prefecture-level cities are already medium-sized cities. Why is Hunan still targeting medium-sized cities? because they cannot advance to the ranks of big cities.
First of all, Hunan’s plan is for the 14th Five-Year Plan period, that is, 2025. The plans of many provinces are long-term plans until 2035.
We know that urban expansion is not easy for prefecture-level cities. Although many people from rural towns and villages have moved to urban areas to buy houses in prefecture-level cities in recent years, not many people live there themselves. Most of them still go to the south to work.
Prefecture-level cities can attract people, but they cannot retain them. To calculate the permanent population, one must live locally for half a year. Therefore, the urban area has expanded, but the population has not increased much. This is the reason.
Secondly, prefecture-level cities also face the population siphon from provincial capital cities. While the population of counties and townships is moving to prefecture-level cities, the population of prefecture-level cities is also moving to provincial capitals and first-tier cities, and the proportion is still relatively large.
Therefore, for prefecture-level cities, the growth rate of urban population is relatively slow. For example, Changsha can have a net increase of 100,000 to 200,000 people a year, but for ordinary prefecture-level cities, it is not easy to increase the number of 20,000 to 30,000 people.
Of course, the above are all macro-level reasons. Now let’s talk about the reasons for these six prefecture-level cities themselves.
First, the location advantage is not good. We know that the terrain of Hunan is relatively simple. The eastern region is a plain, and it is on the main axis of development. The transportation environment and industrial agglomeration are more favorable. Specifically, it is the cities between Yueyang - Changsha - Hengyang , with development opportunities. Dominate.
Among these six prefecture-level cities, Huaihua belongs to Xiangxi and is an economically weak area in Hunan. Yiyang, Shaoyang, Loudi and Yongzhou belong to central Hunan and are tepid areas. Although Chenzhou is located in eastern Hunan, it is not on the main axis of development. It is also located in a mountainous area at the junction of Hunan and Guangdong provinces. It is also subject to the siphon of the Pearl River Delta, which is not ideal.
Second, the economic aggregate is generally not high. GDP can reflect the level of economic development to a great extent. Looking at these 6 prefecture-level cities, the highest Chenzhou City is 277 billion, which is not bad. Loudi and Huaihua are both below 200 billion, and the rest are around 200 billion.
The urban economy is actually an industrial economy, because the population requires a large number of jobs, and the construction of public supporting facilities in the city requires industrial taxation to provide guarantees.
Third, the total population of some cities is not high. According to Hunan Province's seventh census population data, among the six prefecture-level cities, Chenzhou still has the highest population, reaching 4.67 million, and Loudi, the smallest with 3.83 million. Most of these prefecture-level cities have many counties and cities under their jurisdiction, and the counties and cities account for the vast majority of the population. The total population of the municipal districts is relatively small, which is unfavorable for urban construction.
Let’s choose a specific city for detailed analysis and see how difficult it is to advance to a big city?
Chenzhou has the strongest comprehensive strength among these 6 prefecture-level cities. Let’s analyze it!
Chenzhou City’s urban population in 2021 will be between 600,000 and 700,000. Even if it is calculated at 700,000, there is still a gap of 300,000 from the threshold of a large city.
Calculated based on 5 years' time, the average urban population needs to increase by 60,000 per year.
Chenzhou City has Beihu District and Suxian District. At the time of the Sixth Census in 2010, the total population of Beihu District was 419,800; at the time of the Seventh Census in 2020, the permanent population was 568,800, an increase of 150,000 in ten years, with an average annual increase of 15,000. The annual population increase in Suxian District is also not large.
According to this increase, Chenzhou does not have the conditions to be promoted to a big city at the end of the 14th Five-Year Plan. This is true for Chenzhou, but even worse for Shaoyang, Yiyang, Huaihua, Yongzhou, and Loudi.
Therefore, although these six prefecture-level cities are already medium-sized cities, Hunan's goal for the 14th Five-Year Plan is still medium-sized cities and cannot be promoted to large cities.
