In an interview with a reporter from the British " Guardian " on December 25, Yermak, the President's Office of Ukraine, told the "Guardian" reporter that 2023 will be a critical and decisive year for the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Because Ukraine must use military means to regain Crimea in 2023, Yermak told reporters that Ukraine will do its best to achieve this goal.
As we all know, as the director of the Office of the President of Ukraine, Yermak can be said to be Zelensky's great steward and Zelensky's confidant. When he was interviewed by the British "Guardian", he was able to make such predictions about the actions of the Ukrainian army, and he must have wanted to express various meanings through the "Guardian".
First, 2023 is too critical for Russia and Ukraine, especially Ukraine. The Russia-Ukraine conflict has been going on for more than 300 days in 2022. During these more than 300 days, although the Ukrainian army fought bravely, it was still far behind in terms of strength. Even with the support of the United States and other Western countries, it was still retreating. Although Ukraine has launched a local counterattack and recovered some lost ground, the problem is that from the perspective of the overall strategic situation, Russia still occupies a dominant and controlling position, which is unacceptable to Zelensky. Therefore, Zelensky wants to complete his goal by 2023 and restore Ukraine to an independent, sovereign and territorially intact country. What Yermak hopes to convey through the "Guardian" is that Ukraine worked very hard in 2022 and achieved good results, but the task in 2023 is still very arduous, and Ukraine will definitely work harder. Yermak's statement actually means to the outside world that Ukraine will compete with Russia in 2023.
Second, Yermak told the Guardian reporter that Ukraine will regain Crimea militarily in 2023, which actually rules out the possibility of returning Crimea to Ukraine through diplomatic negotiations. This signal actually means that Ukraine has chosen to use war instead of peace talks to regain its lost territory. The Russia-Ukraine conflict in 2023 will be more bloody, cruel, and intense. What Yermak wants to express is that Ukraine has nothing to lose, only its own blood and life.
Third, the main reason why Yermak revealed to the Guardian that Ukraine will regain the Crimean Peninsula militarily in 2023 is because it is estimated that the Ukrainian military has already made a series of military action plans and preparations to attack Crimea. Today, the news is only released through the mouth of Yermak, the director of the Ukrainian Presidential Office and through the hands of the Guardian. In fact, it is exerting strategic pressure on Russia. At the same time, it sets ambitious goals for the Ukrainian army, which is suffering from the cold winter, and will never return until it takes back its homeland.
Secondly, Yermak, as the director of the Office of the President of Ukraine, said in an interview with a reporter from the British "Guardian" that 2023 is a critical and decisive year for the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. At the same time, Ukraine will definitely regain the Crimean Peninsula militarily in 2023. Generally speaking, this possibility is not high.
Ukraine has repeatedly expressed its willingness to regain the Crimean Peninsula. This is not the first time Yermak has expressed this intention. In fact, in September this year, the Ukrainian army won the victory in Donbas Liman and later captured the city of Kherson. At that time, the Ukrainian military was full of joy and morale. At that time, the Ukrainian military had proposed a so-called Christmas offensive to launch an offensive to regain Crimea during Christmas. There were only two months from September or October this year to Christmas on December 25. The prediction at the time was that it would be impossible for the Ukrainian military to make all preparations for a large-scale battle in two months. The slogan of the Christmas offensive to recapture Crimea was just a gimmick. At the time, many netizens thought it was pure speculation, but the facts proved that it was nothing more than that. On December 25, the Ukrainian military received a blessing from President Zelensky, declaring that God lent us light, and as a result, all the front lines were filled with candles. On Christmas Day, Yermak, as chief of staff to the president, publicly stated that Ukraine would retake the Crimean peninsula militarily next year, which was just another piece of propaganda.The reason why
emphasizes that this is a public opinion propaganda offensive is that the recovery of the Crimean Peninsula can not be fought with a war of words. As the saying goes, the troops must go first before food and grass are used. This means that the recovery of the Crimean Peninsula is definitely not a small conflict or a small battle, but a large-scale battle. During the -Soviet-German war period, a battle took place on the Crimean Peninsula. The Soviet Union and Germany both sides invested millions of troops, and the battle for this peninsula lasted for several months. With Ukraine's current strength, it is unable to raise the troops and weapons and equipment capable of confronting Russia in just a few months. Ukraine has neither an air force with absolute air supremacy nor long-range missiles, nor a powerful navy as a deterrent. In this case, it is a complete joke to only rely on drone-style guerrilla warfare or small-group infiltration of special operations. Recovering the Crimean Peninsula requires a large-scale battle. From this perspective, the information Yermak revealed through the "Guardian" is another piece of propaganda, and Yermak's plump ideal will eventually become a skinny reality.
First, Ukraine currently does not have this strength. If Ukraine could regain Crimea through military means in 2023, Ukraine would have already taken back all the four eastern states controlled by Russia, and would not be in a stalemate like the current war. Now that Ukraine can afford to fight a large-scale and sustained war of attrition, the four Ukrainian states will not be in the embarrassing situation of life and death as they are now. From the perspective of the strength of the Ukrainian army, it does not have such strength in order to successfully complete the battle to regain the Crimean Peninsula. Ukraine's own weak strength makes this plan unable to be implemented at the practical level.
Second, from the perspective of the United States, the United States will never allow the Ukrainian military to launch a large-scale attack on the Crimean Peninsula. In 2014, the Crimean Peninsula was regained by Russia, and it was announced that the Crimean Peninsula would return to Russia forever. Although the status of the Crimean Peninsula has not been recognized on the international stage, in fact, starting from the Obama period, the West has adopted a tacit attitude towards this fact. The acquiescence at the international political level is actually a kind of acquiescence to a considerable extent. This means that even if the West verbally opposes Russia's direct takeover of Crimea, in fact, the West's inaction on Crimea is a disguised recognition of Russia's legitimacy in Crimea.
Under this circumstance, once the Ukrainian army crosses the four eastern Ukrainian states and directly enters the Crimean Peninsula, the controllable and fragile balance of the Russia-Ukraine conflict may be completely broken. By then, the Russia-Ukraine conflict will turn into an uncontrollable geopolitical conflict that will sweep across the entire European continent. If such an outcome really occurs, it will be difficult for the United States to stay out of the matter. From the perspective of the United States, rather than directly getting involved in the war and facing Russia, it would be better to add fuel to the fire and obtain greater benefits by passing the knife behind the back. Therefore, the United States will of course choose to consciously control Ukraine. Yermak's so-called military recovery of Crimea in 2023 will probably be even more difficult to obtain support from the United States.
Third, from Russia’s perspective, the main reason is that Russia simply does not allow Ukraine to pose a huge threat to Crimea.
On the one hand, Crimea historically belonged to Russia, but at that time Khrushchev transferred it to Ukraine in order to resume the construction of Crimea. Although Russia and Ukraine reached a certain agreement when the Soviet Union collapsed , the premise of the agreement at that time was that Ukraine could not surrender to the West and must maintain a neutral position between the West and Russia. Now that Ukraine has taken the lead in betraying this position, Russia has taken back the Crimean Peninsula. From Russia's perspective, it will never allow Crimea to be abandoned from its hands again.
On the other hand, since Crimea was taken back in 2014, Putin has attached great importance to the construction of the Crimean Peninsula.At the opening ceremony of the Crimean Bridge, Putin personally drove through it. This is enough to show the importance of Crimea to Russia. After all, controlling the Crimean Peninsula is equivalent to having a huge radiating influence on the entire Black Sea. Once Ukraine really prepares to regain Crimea militarily in 2023 as Yermak said, and Russia refuses to give up any ground, the two sides will definitely have the most tragic battle since the end of World War II. What's more, once the Ukrainian army begins to attack the Crimean Peninsula, it actually means that the four Ukrainian states controlled by Russia have been basically abandoned. In this case, Russia will of course dare to use anything.
Based on the above three major restrictive factors, the reason why Yermak told the Guardian reporter on Christmas Day, December 25, that Ukraine will regain the Crimean Peninsula militarily in 2023 is more of an ideal description. After all, people without ideals are like salted fish.
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