Part
1
On December 21, 2022, Ukrainian President Zelenskiy visited the United States and met with President Biden at the White House . This is Zelensky’s first foreign visit since the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and it coincides with the 300th day of the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Zelensky’s trip has two main purposes. One is to continue to seek military and economic assistance from the United States, and the other is to boost Ukraine’s morale.
Researcher at the Ukraine Research Office, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences Zhang Hong:
"Biden will increase investment in Ukraine, which indicates that more advanced weapons from the West and NATO will arrive in Ukraine in 2023. In the 2023 budget of the United States, it promised to provide nearly more than 30 billion US dollars in financial assistance to Ukraine, and the quality of this assistance is constantly rising, constantly breaking past taboos and bottom lines. . The European Union has also provided 18 billion euros in financial assistance. This is all to support Ukraine and continue to fight this stalemate with Russia. "
Just the day before Zelensky's visit to the United States, the U.S. House of Representatives Appropriations Committee just announced the "2023 Supplementary Ukraine Supplementary Appropriations Act" totaling US$45 billion. This will be the largest amount of funding for Ukraine to date by the U.S. Congress. In his speech to Congress, Zelensky thanked the United States for its support and urged U.S. lawmakers to help implement and increase support for Ukraine.
Among the US military assistance to Ukraine, what has attracted international attention is that the United States sent the Ukrainian army a "Patriot" air defense missile system. The "Patriot" is a third-generation surface-to-air, medium-to-long-range, medium-to-high-altitude and low-altitude missile system developed by the United States. It was first deployed in the 1980s. Among them, the "Patriot-3" is one of the representative weapons of the United States. The missile can adapt to complex combat environments and is good at dealing with threats from air assault forces. This is the most expensive and most advanced single weapon provided by the United States to Ukraine since the Russia-Ukraine conflict.
Military Expert Cao Weidong:
"The 'Patriot' air defense and anti-missile system is used by the U.S. Army. Its low-altitude air defense and anti-missile weapons mainly refer to the 'Stinger' shoulder-fired missiles that hit relatively low. If you want to hit higher, medium-high Air targets rely on the Patriot. "
The Patriot consists of a truck-mounted launch system with eight launchers, each of which can accommodate up to four missile interceptors, a ground radar, a control station and a generator. U.S. Secretary of State Blinken said in a statement: "The 'Patriot' air defense system is better able to shoot down cruise missiles, short-range ballistic missiles and aircraft than previously offered air defense systems."
Military experts Wang Yunfei:
"The range of the 'Patriot' missile can reach 80 kilometers, and the tactical missile can also reach forty or fifty kilometers, and the height is more than 20 kilometers. The biggest threat to Ukraine at present is precisely the cruise missile, so the United States may give the 'Patriot' The Z-3' missile acts as a point defense and intercepts missiles within a radius of 50 kilometers, thus playing a protective role against important targets. "
The "Patriot" air defense missile system has long been a popular choice among U.S. allies around the world and is an excellent shield against incoming missiles and bombers . Zelensky has long wanted to obtain the "Patriot" air defense missile system. Since October, the Russian army has begun large-scale bombings of Ukrainian military and infrastructure. After every bombing by the Russian army, Zelensky will almost always ask the United States for the "Patriot" air defense system, but the United States has been hesitant.
Researcher at the Ukraine Research Office, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences Zhang Hong:
"Patriot is a very complex air defense missile system with very advanced technology. If advanced equipment is provided to Ukraine without restrictions, it may cause some technical leaks on the one hand, and it may anger Russia on the other. One of the biggest principles of NATO's support to Ukraine is not to get into trouble and avoid direct confrontation between Russia and NATO. Confrontation, so NATO is carefully and gradually increasing the quality and quantity of assistance to Ukraine, and is constantly testing Russia's strategic bottom line. "
A key obstacle for the United States to provide "Patriot" to Ukraine is training. The "Patriot" system is difficult to put into use immediately in the short term. It will take several months to train Ukrainian soldiers to operate this complex system. The system consists of a missile launcher, radar , a command and control center and other support vehicles. Although only three soldiers are needed to fire the missile after deployment, it requires a team of nearly 90 soldiers to operate and maintain it.
Military Expert Wang Yunfei:
"Theoretically speaking, Russia's current Kalibr missiles, Iskander missiles , and 'Patriot' missiles can defend against it, and the probability of interception is still relatively high. Of course, this depends on Ukraine's How about tactical use? First of all, you have to use early warning aircraft or a relatively dense radar to detect low-altitude incoming cruise missiles. If it cannot be detected, it will be difficult to attack. So it depends on whether Ukraine can establish a strict early warning system and temporarily defend a point target. It is too late to cover a distance of tens of kilometers, so it may still take some time for Ukraine to become proficient in Patriot missiles. "
Part
2
Currently, the United States and other NATO allies have provided Ukraine with short- and medium-range air defense systems, which can shoot down Russian aircraft and drones , but cannot shoot down ballistic missiles and cruise missiles. Since October, Russia has been using missiles to attack Ukrainian infrastructure, including "Dagger" hypersonic missiles, Iskander ballistic missiles, "Caliber" cruise missiles, KH-101 stealth cruise missiles, and multiple models of anti-ship missiles . BBC reported that Russia launched missile and drone attacks on Ukraine, which has currently caused millions of Ukrainians to lose power, heating and running water. This all prompted the United States to finally agree to provide "Patriots" to Ukraine.
Military Expert Cao Weidong:
"The question now is how many Patriots can be obtained, and then where to deploy them. If it is deployed on the forward position, it is unrealistic and will be destroyed soon. It has a launch system, a command and control system, and a radar detection system, including replenishment and maintenance after launching the missile. So for now, it is likely to be deployed in Kiev , Just like prevention and control in the capital, or prevention and control in some important places, or gathering points for weapons and equipment, the most important transportation hubs, etc. "
Once the "Patriot" air defense and missile defense system is successfully delivered to the Ukrainian army, it will pose a considerable threat to the Russian army. The system has a long range, significantly exceeding the various air defense systems currently used by the Ukrainian army. Once Ukraine obtains the "Patriot" system, it will be able to build a layered air defense system to intercept Russian attacks.
Military Expert Wang Yunfei:
"It is a complete system, such as a power supply vehicle , a radar vehicle, an electronic communication command vehicle and a missile launch vehicle . If one of these four launch vehicles is destroyed, the system will be useless."
Ukrainian Foreign Minister Kuleba recently said that Ukraine will soon receive the first batch of batteries needed for the "Patriot" anti-missile system .The U.S. Pentagon has also begun formulating a training plan that may send Ukrainian soldiers to Germany for operational training. On the second day of Zelensky's visit to the United States, Russian President Putin stated at a press conference that the "Patriot" was inferior to the Russian S-300 air defense missile system, and said that Russia would crush them like nuts.
Researcher at the Ukraine Research Office, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences Zhang Hong:
“Whenever there is a spear, there is a shield, and when there is a shield, a tougher spear appears. Now Russia has a ‘dagger’ hypersonic weapon. Its speed reaches Mach 6, which means ‘patriot’ Missiles cannot intercept the "Dagger". In fact, humans are constantly building spears and shields. When the United States gives Ukraine "Patriot" missiles, it means that Russia will create more offensive weapons that can break through the "Patriot" missiles. Home Missile Defense System What does bring? What it brings is a wave of upgrades to the global strategic weapon . ”
Part
3
The conflict between Russia and Ukraine has entered a stalemate. Western weapons aiding Ukraine have been upgraded again, and Ukraine’s offensive and defensive system has been greatly improved. In terms of defense, Ukraine has obtained the US Patriot air defense missile system and is building a shield to defend the Russian Aerospace Forces. On the offensive side, the Ukrainian army will also receive high-mobility rocket launcher system ammunition, 500 "Excalibur" artillery shells, "HAM" anti-radar missiles, and joint direct attack bombs. This seems to have emboldened Ukraine. Recently, the Russia Today TV website reported: In an interview with French TV, Zelensky said that "Ukrainians are ready to take back Crimea by force."
Zhang Hong, researcher at the Ukraine Research Office of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences:
"I often see Zelensky talking about liberating Crimea and liberating Ukraine. This may be to unite Ukrainian society. Through such a political declaration, it can ease the people's tolerance for a miserable life."
Zelensky's idea of wanting to take back Crimea has long been revealed. During the Battle of Kherson, the Ukrainian army wanted to recapture Kherson to further control Crimea. Not long ago, the Ukrainian army attacked the city of Melitopol, where Russian Wagner mercenaries are stationed. This area happens to be known as the "Gateway to Crimea."
Military Expert Wang Yunfei:
"Zelensky said that he would counterattack and liberate more places. He is indeed confident. It is precisely because the United States and Western countries have provided him with weapons with longer range and higher accuracy. In the future, Russia's rear may be supplemented The supply lines, military bases , and missile depots will all be attacked by Ukraine in large numbers, which will make Russia’s offensive and defensive ends unbalanced.”
Regarding Zelensky’s declaration to take back Crimea by force, the attitude of the United States is intriguing. John Kirby, strategic communications coordinator at the U.S. National Security Council , said: "Crimea belongs to Ukraine. Ukrainians have the right to decide where they will conduct operations within their own country. But the "Haimas" launch vehicles provided by the U.S. military to the Ukrainian armed forces have been "castrated". By limiting the on-board computers The computer system makes these " Seamus " do not have the functions required to launch Army tactical missiles. The Biden administration believes that these "castrations" are a necessary preventive measure to reduce the risk of the escalation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict.
Researcher at the Ukraine Research Office of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences. Zhang Hong:
"The United States is principled in supporting Ukraine. It does not want the war to win quickly or fail quickly. If Ukraine wins quickly, it will trigger political pressure and military backlash in Russia, which will lead to Russia escalating from a special military operation to a full-scale war.It is impossible for the Ukrainian army to fail, because from the perspective of global strategic considerations, the United States wants to use NATO to contain China and regards China as a strategic rival. The Russian-Ukrainian conflict cannot end until its goal is achieved. It wants to use the Russian-Ukrainian conflict to put Russia in a position where it has no time to expand outwards and has no time to participate in other hot issues. Therefore, the Russia-Ukraine conflict is a lever in American global politics, using it to leverage all interests. ”
Part
4
Zelenskiy recently stated that he would restore the land area to the state before Crimea separated from it in 2014, which means that Ukraine needs to regain the four eastern and southern states of Ukraine and launch an attack on Crimea. To this end, Ukraine The military is seeking a cruise missile called "Storm Shadow" from the United Kingdom. This missile has long-range precision strike capabilities comparable to those of the U.S. Army's tactical missile system. It also has stealth capabilities and uses a large amount of artificial intelligence technology. It is called the "smartest cruise missile." If it has "Storm Shadow", Ukraine will be able to launch missile attacks on Crimea and even Russia itself. British Defense Secretary Ben Wallace also confirmed the UK's intention to provide "Storm Shadow" missiles to Ukraine.
Military Expert Wang Yunfei: "In the past, attacks on the Crimean peninsula were mainly carried out with drones, because other artillery pieces and missiles were out of reach. With the 'Storm Shadow' or the Army tactical system provided by the United States, military facilities in Crimea, including ports and airports, could be directly hit in parts controlled by Ukraine such as Zaporozhye or Kherson." This poses a very large threat to the security of the entire Crimean Peninsula. At the same time, it can also pose a major threat to deep targets in Russia in northern Ukraine. "
Recently, Ukraine has reached Moscow's doorstep. In early December, the Ukrainian army used Tu-141 "Petrel" jet drones to attack two Russian airports. It is worth noting that these two airports are only 150 miles away from Moscow.
Researcher at the Ukrainian Research Office of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences Zhang Hong:
“After the Ukrainian army raided these two strategic airports of the Russian army, the Russian army’s strategic aircraft have moved to farther airports, 600 to 700 kilometers away, which is not a safe distance for the Russian army now. The attacks on military targets in Russia by these NATO-assisted systems exposed the loopholes in Russia's air defense network. "
Some military experts have analyzed that Ukraine's action against Crimea may be as follows: first launch drones at Russian ships located in the waters of Sevastopol, which will immediately activate all radar stations of the Crimean and Black Sea Fleet air defense systems; This was followed by the Ukrainian army's MiG-29 fighter jets launching anti-radiation missiles over the Black Sea, suppressing Russia's air surveillance radar from a certain direction; after the Russian air defense system was weakened, the Ukrainian army then used its "Storm Shadow" cruise missiles to attack Ukraine. rimea.
However, Russian media also stated that the Russian army currently has a very powerful air defense force in Crimea. The Russian 31st Air Defense Division is deployed in Crimea, which is mainly responsible for the security of the peninsula. There are also two air defense missile regiments equipped with Russia's most advanced air defense missile systems, including four battalions of S-400 long-range air defense systems. In addition, the 1096th Independent Air Defense Missile Regiment of the Black Sea Fleet stationed in Sevastopol has been equipped with a new generation of S-350 "Warrior" medium-range air defense missile systems, which are specially used to attack high-speed and low-altitude targets such as cruise missiles.
Researcher at the Ukraine Research Office, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences Zhang Hong:
"I think attack and occupation are two concepts. Attack weapons, especially these advanced long-range strike weapons from NATO, have high penetration capabilities and even hit rates, but occupation is another concept. It requires the army and air superiority. Now Ukraine's equipment, firepower, and logistics are not enough to support it in regaining Crimea." Zelensky often talks about recovering Crimea. I think it is more of a political propaganda for the West. Even if the UK assists these long-range missiles with a range of 300 kilometers, it can only attack important targets deep in Russia, but it is far from enough to retake Crimea. ”
The West’s military aid to Ukraine has been frequently upgraded, and Russian President Vladimir Putin is also preparing for the coming risks. On December 19, Putin visited Belarus and held talks with Belarusian President Lukashenko. Putin's move made Ukraine very nervous. Once there were changes in Crimea, the Russian army could increase its offensive into the hinterland of Ukraine from the north and force the Ukrainian army to defend, thus diverting firepower and maintaining the security of Crimea.
Military Expert Cao Weidong:
" In fact, Russia knows very well that the United States will not stop unilaterally supporting Ukraine and will not stop providing various weapons and equipment to Ukraine. The United States is completely using Ukraine to consume Russia. Although the United States has many advanced weapons and equipment, it will not provide them all. Supply to Ukraine. Russia has deployed 1,550 nuclear warheads . Of course the United States knows it, so everyone is spending it together to see how long the other party can sustain it. "
Western powers are still lining up, and the weapons and equipment provided to Ukraine may increase, turning Ukraine into a weapons testing ground. If continues to provide arms and financial support to Ukraine, will it really achieve some kind of military balance on the Russian-Ukrainian battlefield? Putin has emphasized the need to maintain the balance of nuclear deterrence by supporting land, sea and air force nuclear forces. Not only is Russia and Ukraine caught in the conflict of arms escalation, but what is worrying is that the weapons aided to Ukraine may be scattered everywhere. Recently, the president of Nigeria issued a warning, saying that weapons from the Russian-Ukrainian battlefield are flowing into Africa and being used by terrorist organizations. The earth is a common village, and it is difficult to defend against the risk of war spilling over.
Producer: He Jining
Director: Wang Liu
Editor: Wang Jinjie
