Title: The Russia-Ukraine conflict is the most influential event after the Cold War. In the words of former German Prime Minister Merkel: "No one can estimate what the world will look like after the conflict!"
In this sense, the impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict even exceeds the end of the Cold War. Because the end of the Cold War has made the world more peaceful; the conflict between Russia and Ukraine has made the world more turbulent.
And history is the reality that happened in the past, the present will soon become history, and the future is an extension of reality.
Understanding history is to better face reality; understanding reality is to better move toward the future.
Everyone is responsible for the rise and fall of the world..
On December 25, Ukrainian President Zelenskiy gave a speech. In his speech, he said: "In fact, Russia has lost everything in 2022, and they can only use gloating propagandists on talk shows to make up for its losses!"
I think that in reality, Russia has not lost everything. But no matter which aspect you look at, Russia's losses in all aspects have been extremely huge, even intolerable.
Russia’s western geography
1. Geographical security.
The Russian side currently attributes the outbreak of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine to the fact that Russia's security cannot be guaranteed. Then, Russia’s geopolitical security landscape appears even more sinister after the conflict.
The above is the reality faced by western Russia. Northern Europe: Sweden and Finland have newly joined NATO ; Central Europe: the US Fifth Army Corps headquarters is stationed in Poland , and the US military B2 stealth strategic bomber is stationed in Poland; Southeast Europe : Moldova , and Ukraine has completely turned to the West.
Geographically, Ukraine protrudes deeply into Russia's soft belly.
from west to east, Turkey swings left and right, Transcaucasus Georgia , Azerbaijan , Armenia , Central Asian countries to Northeast Asia Japan and South Korea.
In this way, a strategic encirclement against Russia is looming. The Black Sea to Mediterranean route has become Russia’s lifeline: But what if Ukraine regains Kherson , Crimea and other places?
Crimean Bridge
2. International status.
As a permanent member of the United Nations, a nuclear power, the "second military power", a resource power, and a fighting nation, Russia is one of the poles in the multi-polar world. It ranks second in the world in foreign arms sales and is connected to Europe's energy. Arms sales bring security, and energy connects the economy, which all have implications: and internationally, even the United States is afraid of the United States when it comes to confronting it.
Today, Russia's energy ties to Europe have been interrupted, and its exported weapons have been repeatedly refunded. Even Lithuania dared to block the goods from the Russian enclave Kaliningrad . Some countries strongly demand the abolition of its permanent seat on the Security Council...
Compared with before and after 0, Russia's influence on the world has declined sharply, and its status has declined.
3. National strength.
A country’s national strength includes the above two items: geosecurity and international status.
Beixi was blown up
and the Russian economy is facing difficulties: it has suffered more than 10,000 unprecedented sanctions. Capital flows out, the ruble depreciates, oil prices are restricted, the natural gas market is replaced, grain transportation channels are blocked, Beixi 1 and 2 were blown up, and the main natural gas pipeline passing through Ukraine was blown up in Russia... The economy is under tremendous pressure.
At the same time, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine continues, and the consumption of war continues: in modern warfare, a 152mm howitzer costs 3,000 US dollars, an S400 air defense interceptor costs millions of dollars, and a Su-34 bomber A bomber costs tens of millions of dollars, a Moscow missile cruiser costs hundreds of millions of dollars...
consumption is still going on. Some analysts say that based on current consumption: nearly 30% of Russia's GDP23 in 2023 will be used in conflicts.
Russia's GDP is just over one trillion US dollars, one-third of which is about 300-400 billion, which is more than 1 billion if divided equally every day...
Such consumption will inevitably have an impact on national strength and people's livelihood.
4. Military Strength
In the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, one of Russia’s goals is “demilitarization.” But in fact, the Ukrainian army is getting stronger and stronger under the comprehensive protection of NATO. However, the consumption of Russia's heavy equipment: aircraft, tanks, ships, artillery, armored vehicles... is not keeping up with the production trend.
As a result, the gap between the two has gradually widened: Ukraine has surpassed Russia in terms of number of troops, the number of tanks is very close, and there is still a large gap between the armored vehicles and artillery.
But with artillery, the Ukrainian army supplemented its quantity with quality and did not fall behind; the Russian armored forces were suppressed by javelins, and the Russian Air Force fighter planes were limited by the lack of cheap and accurate ground attack ammunition and were restrained by the Ukrainian army's stingers...
Under such a war of attrition, this trend is still developing and continuing. What will happen a year from now?
Comparison of Russian and Ukrainian military strength, tanks, armored vehicles, and artillery
Russia is the second military power. Some analysts have analyzed that it will take at least 3 to 5 years for its military strength to return to the pre-conflict level. But Russia's biggest frustration is that he can't stop.
5. International relations.
Due to the decline of Russia's influence, including its ally India in the Cold War, Serbia it supported in the Kosovo war , and Armenia it supported in the Naka conflict... they have turned to varying degrees in policy.
India canceled its order for Russian helicopters, Serbia refused to allow Russia to set up a military base, , and Armenia simply accepted the visit of the old woman in the United States.
6. Conclusion
Of course, Russia has not lost everything as President Zelensky claimed. Losing everything means losing the destiny of the country, losing political power, losing national self-confidence, and losing the blood of civilization. Russia is one of the five permanent members. After all, it has a big weapon in its hands and occupies the four lands of Wudong.
However, the conflict cannot be stopped, and possession has become a heavy burden on Russia's back .
In contrast, our China-India self-defense counterattack in the 1960s was like cutting butter with a knife, and it was so easy and free. Why? Don't focus on the earth, but focus on the Tao and the potential.
Achieving 30 years of peace in one battle was the goal of the great men in the self-defense counterattack between China and India. It has now been more than sixty years.
War and peace, when peace comes to an end, war is chosen. Advancing troops is not only about attacking strategies, but also about attacking roads!
"Former Defense Minister of the Donetsk Republic" Strelkov said that Russia does not have a clear strategic goal. He asked: "If we want to export more oil and gas to our partners, ammonia... what are we doing here?"
Yes, but it seems that the partners we once were are no longer.
This is another huge loss for Russia.
calls for peace and opposes war!
