The latest Russian and Ukrainian December 3: The US military B21 appears, highlighting the disadvantages of the Russian army
Original Xiao Kuijun Sleeping during the day and wake up at night 2022-12-03 23:00
Morning mist / Reposted
Dear readers and friends, hello everyone, this is the original article in the series of combat situation analysis of Russia and Ukraine on December 3.
There is an important news today, and the US military's new stealth strategic bomber B21 was published. We will have a detailed analysis later on this matter. Other important news today include:
, Kremlin statement, Putin and German Prime Minister Scholz spoke on the phone to discuss the situation in Ukraine. A spokesperson for the German government said: Scholz urged the Russian president to resolve the conflict with Ukraine through diplomacy and withdraw troops from Ukraine. Scholz also condemned Russia's attack on Ukrainian infrastructure in a telephone conversation with him.
However, unexpectedly, Putin condemned the weapons and ammunition of Western aid to Ukraine, saying that the West's "fire" hindered the Russian army's successful advance. From this point of view alone, Germany and Russia are just talking about each other, and there is nothing to say.
Of course, the matter of the two heads of state talking on the phone is quite good. This shows that Germany also hopes to make more of its own voice in international politics, rather than letting France endorse everything. In addition, Scholz did not negotiate terms with the Russians in an overrepresentative manner, but reiterated Ukraine's bottom-line position, which is a respect for Ukraine and a manifestation of the unity of Western partners.
. Price limit on Russian oil has been approved by many countries. Currently, G7 and Australia both agreed to implement a price limit of $60 per barrel on Russian oil, and Polish also nodded. In fact, Russian oil has sold $52 per barrel to some Asian countries, and $60 seems to have left Russia some way out. Of course, we don’t want to be in a hurry.
3. After Russia shelled the wires, Khlsong was out of power again. Herson has not restored power supply across the city yet, and the power has been cut off again.
4. According to the latest Ukrainian media reports, a Russian oil depot in Donetsk , which is more than 60 kilometers away from the front, exploded after being hit. is very similar to Teacher Hai’s name.
5, According to Reuters , one of the world's largest aircraft manufacturers, Airbus will completely stop purchasing titanium from Russia within a few months. Airbus Defense and Aerospace CEO Michael Scholhorn confirmed this. It said it was trying to find an alternative source of supply for the metal, while rival Boeing had previously suspended purchases of titanium from Russia.
Russia is the world's largest titanium producer, mainly used in aircraft engines and large aircraft chassis. As early as April, Airbus said that sanctions on Russian titanium would harm the aerospace industry and would be unlikely to harm the Russian economy. Now, obviously, the mind has changed.
In the past few days, EU has decided to limit the price of oil imported from Russia to a maximum of US$60 per barrel. Combined, the Russian economy has finally gained an increasingly "independent" position. But we all know that this means that the hard days for the Russians are far away.
Previously, Russia's most ace export commodity was obviously oil and natural gas. In 2021, Russia's total foreign trade volume was US$789.4 billion and its export volume was US$493.3 billion, of which fuel and energy products exports accounted for 54.3% of the total exports. Oil and natural gas have supported the "half of the sky" of Russia's economy. Data shows that the total oil and gas exports in 2021 are close to US$165 billion, accounting for 49.86% of Russia's fiscal revenue of that year. Today, gas exports to Europe have been completely cut off, oil is dying and there are price limits. Although Russia is working hard to expand oil exports to Asian countries, the decline in total export quota is still an inevitable trend.I wonder what method Russia is going to use to deal with the fiscal deficit in two years?
The battle situation is still dull and there is nothing to say. It is worth mentioning that the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense pointed out that throughout November, as many as 16,970 Russian troops were shot dead. This is the largest number so far during the entire war. Ukrainian Ministry of Defense also pointed out that Russia's military equipment losses this month are:
tanks: 217; armored combat vehicles : 376; artillery system: 174.
The results released by the Ukrainian army today are as follows:
personnel: 90,600 people, 510 new people;
tanks: 2,917 vehicles, 1 new;
armored vehicles : 5,886 vehicles, 3 new;
artillery: 1,906 vehicles, 1 new one.
In addition, many bloggers on the Internet say that Zaporoze Russian troops retreated, but the information I learned is to change defense, not withdraw troops.
According to Estonian Broadcasting Corporation, Estonian will purchase the Himas rocket launcher system from the United States. The total value of this contract is over US$200 million, which will be the largest defense contract in Estonia's history. Ramir Lipp, head of the weapons department, said that under the contract, in addition to multiple launch rocket systems, Estonia will also purchase ammunition and communication device . The agreement also includes addressing issues related to training and logistics. In particular, the software package includes different types of missiles with ranges of 70 to 300 km.
, representative of the General Staff of the Estonian National Defense Forces, said that the HIMARS multi-barrel rocket system is a new and important step in the development of Estonian defense capabilities, allowing the enemy to suffer major damage before contacting our infantry forces. We will also promote comprehensive cooperation with other allies.
Recently it was reported that Latvian and Lithuanian are also planning to purchase HIMARS multi-tube rocket systems from the United States. The first delivery is expected to take place in 2024.
will talk about the birth of B21 today, and combine the current Ukrainian war to talk about the relationship between military equipment and military operations.
First of all, why did the US military develop B21? The B21 is generally equivalent to a streamlined version of the B2 strategic bomber, with a range dropping from 11,000 kilometers of B2 to 9,000 kilometers, and a bomb load dropping from 18 tons of B2 to 13 tons, but the purchase price also drops from 2.4 billion US dollars per aircraft to 550 million US dollars per aircraft.
To understand this evolution, we must start with the US military's construction ideas.
The overall idea of the US military in building a national defense system after World War II is as follows:
950~1960s, the nuclear war of was carried out around . The US military first thought about how to establish a nuclear advantage, but the Soviet army soon had nuclear weapon , so the proposition was turned into how to deter the Soviet army from launching a large-scale nuclear attack. This stage of construction ends with both the United States and the Soviet Union realizing that after the other side has to withstand the first wave of nuclear attacks, the remaining nuclear power can still ensure that all of them are destroyed. In other words, even if either side reaches the advantage of taking the initiative and throws a large number of nuclear weapons on the other side's territory, the remaining nuclear power of the other side can still launch a counterattack and destroy its own side. In this way, launching a nuclear war is destined to be the end of both sides' destruction, and fighting a nuclear war is meaningless.
At this stage, in order to complete the combat mission of dropping nuclear bomb , the United States mainly developed strategic bomber , intercontinental missiles and other weapons and equipment. B-52 was developed in 1948 and delivered and used in 1955. In order to defend against the opponent's bombers, the US military has also developed a number of high-altitude high-speed fighter jets and air defense missile systems. As the end of the nuclear war was recognized, most of these weapons were rapidly outdated. Although the B-52 is still in service today, its main task is not to drop nuclear bombs.
960~1970s, around how to defeat the Soviet army in conventional wars, it dared not launch a torrent-sweeping attack on Western countries in Europe.
The US military discovered that since the actual use of nuclear weapons of any scale will inevitably lead to the escalation of nuclear war, and the United States and the Soviet Union will eventually be destroyed (this has been demonstrated before), in order to avoid this result, we must only use conventional weapon to gain battlefield advantages. Therefore, the US military has strengthened the construction of conventional weapons. A large number of new fighter jets, tanks and artillery were also put into research and development during this period and were put into use in the 1970s and 1980s. For example, F-15, F-16, M1A2 Abrams, etc. The United States and its allies have made great progress in military equipment, military theory, and military system. Finally, through the wargame deduction , confirming that the advantage of military strength over the Warsaw Pact organization has been established in China and Europe. When the Soviet army and its satellite state launched a full-scale attack on Western European countries, NATO was confident that they would block the torrent of Soviet tanks in central Germany, and then launched a counterattack bit by bit to go back.
980~1990s, the so-called period of military technological change. With the birth of stealth technology, sensors, satellite , large-scale integrated circuits and computer networks, a large number of new weapons have emerged. In order to illustrate this concept, we can recall that the most important war in this period is Gulf War . In this war, stealth bombers took the lead in launching precision-guided munitions paralyzed the Iraqi army's air defense capabilities and command system. In the following month, many countries firmly controlled the air supremacy of Iraqi , and then ground battle took only 4 days to destroy the Iraqi army, and the war ended.
This battle killed 223 people, and the Iraqi army was killed 25,000. Such a huge disparity in the number of deaths and the one-sided war process allowed the whole world to see the power brought by the use of high technology in the war. In the 30 years after the end of this war, the US military continued to establish its advantages in stealth technology, precision strike capabilities and informatization, and maintained its position as the world's number one military power from beginning to end.
As we all know, B21 is an updated iterative product of B2 bomber . So why does the US military need B2, and B21 need B2? Simply put, B2 is the core and spearhead of the US Air Force's offensive force. B2 bombers can carry and throw nuclear warhead , or they can carry and throw conventional ammunition and high-precision ammunition. The combat mission they undertake is to sneak into the enemy's territory at the beginning of the war to launch an attack, quickly paralyzing the enemy's command center or other high-value targets. Then other non-stealth fighters can quickly gain battlefield air supremacy at a smaller cost.
However, the disadvantage of B2 is that it is too expensive, each aircraft is 2.4 billion US dollars, and the wealthy US military has only purchased more than 20 aircraft. Such a small number is not enough for future moderate-intensity wars. Therefore, B21 is a low-cost version of B2, which uses new technologies to achieve similar combat effectiveness, but the procurement price is limited to less than US$550 million per aircraft, so that the US military can purchase about 100 aircraft and continue to maintain its advantages in stealth bombers.
So, as a comparison, how is the Russian army, which is boasted as the second military force in the world, performing now? is a pity. Judging from the Ukrainian War, the overall strength of the Russian army is far from comparable to the US army during the Gulf War. It is at most equivalent to the Iraqi army in the Iran-Iraq War .
In September 1980, the Iraqi army took the lead in launching an attack on Iran, taking a sudden lightning action, aiming to achieve a strategic attempt to quickly decide, and occupied some Iranian territory. However, since the Iraqi army bets completely on blitzkrieg , it lacks preparation for long-term combat in terms of thought and materials, once the quick decision attempt is crushed by the other side, the force cannot be supported and gradually changes from active to passive. Relying on its own advantages of large populations, Iran has adopted a "protracted war" strategy.
The problems encountered by the Russian army in the Ukrainian battlefield are the same as those of the Iraqi army at that time.
At the beginning of the war, at the end of February and early March, the Russian army was enthusiastic and proudly divided into 10 armies to attack multiple targets in the heart of Ukraine, hoping to kick the door, and hit it with one blow. was disappointed. Only Khlsong Prefecture achieved results due to the cooperation of Ukraine and traitors. The rest of the Russian troops lost the impact momentum due to the tenacious resistance of Ukraine, and most of them had to withdraw , Belarus and Russia in a mess for reorganization.
This stage of combat, although the Russian army was huge, the supplies carried were insufficient, the troops did not cooperate with each other, and the command system was also scattered and disordered. The Ukrainian army avoided the Russian armored spearhead and flexibly and maneuvered to strike the Russian column side. Not only did it destroy a large number of armored targets, kill a large number of people, but it also successfully cut off the Russian army's logistics supply line, forcing the Russian army to discard a large number of slightly damaged or intact heavy equipment and then retreat in a panic.
The fundamental reason for the failure of the Russian army at this stage was that they deceived themselves. They thought that several cruise missiles were fired at Kiev , and the airborne troops landed at Horstmer Airport and were divided into multiple attacks. It was enough to scare the Ukrainians. As we all saw the actual situation, the Ukrainians were not intimidated, but quickly picked up weapons to block the enemy. Zelensky When a foreign plane was waiting to pick him up in exile, he spoke harshly: What I want is not a free ride but weapons and ammunition, which quickly stabilized the hearts of the army and the people. As a result, Ukraine was united and entered a stage of tenacious resistance.
The second phase of the battle will be reduced from the northwest of Kiev and other places to reorganize the troops, and will be redistributed, and will be strengthened to the east of Kharkov, , Donbas, and , and the "ten-way outbreak"-style comprehensive offensive during the war to the so-called "key offensive". At this stage, the Russian army did achieve results, and the price was the serious losses of the troops. The Ukrainian army exchanged space for time with a small number of people and insufficient weapons and equipment, and finally stabilized the front after losing important cities such as Ijium, Beidun, and Lichangsk.
In this stage, the Russian army has achieved some results due to the concentration of troops and key attacks. However, this is hard to say a success, because the Russian army did not greatly weaken the Ukrainian army while obtaining these territories, nor did it obtain an extremely favorable strategic situation. The Russian army cannot threaten the real strategic areas such as Kiev, Kharkov, and Slaviyansk , which are crucial to the Ukrainian army. They just occupy some land.
Although the Ukrainian army lost some places, it seriously weakened the Russian army in the process. For example, in April, the Black Sea Fleet flagship " Moscow " was sunk, and the Black Sea Fleet was forced to leave the northwest direction of Black Sea , and finally recaptured Snake Island , creating conditions for the food transport ships to enter and exit behind; for example, in May, three Russian BTGs were destroyed on the North Donets River, and since then, the Russian army has never tried to build a floating bridge to cross the river; for example, the Ukrainian army stubbornly blocked the Russian army in the west and south of Ijium, making it difficult for the Russian army here to expand outward after capturing Ijium. Instead, it lost troops and hollowed out the system, which eventually laid the foreshadowing of the unit by the Ukrainian army in early September.
Ukrainian army also achieved the same effect in Beidon and Lichangsk's defense. Since Beidon and Lichangsk, the Russian army, which lacked major generals, has not made decent progress. Later on the front lines of Sevolsk, Suletra and Bachmut, the Russian army invested a large number of infantry and spent several months, and only advanced a few kilometers forward, which fully demonstrated that the combat effectiveness had been greatly weakened.
The third phase of the battle was fought. After mobilizing enough troops and obtaining high-value Western weapons such as the "Haimas" system, the Ukrainian army quickly adjusted its tactics. It also gained local advantages in fighting against the Russian army, and then gained the initiative in the war. The offensive and defensive trend reversed, and the Russian army had to bite the bullet and respond.
7 In July, Haimas was put into active combat. In just a few weeks, it destroyed hundreds of Russian command posts, ammunition depots, , oil depots and transportation hubs and other high-value targets. The US military may not have expected that Himas, who was in service at the beginning of the century, was not in the US military's combat sequence, and usually only used to do some dirty and tiring work, became a killer weapon and a strategic weapon of in the Ukrainian battlefield.The existence of Himas has caused the Russian military to fail in a collapsed manner in a very short period of time. Since ammunition and oil supply are not available at all, since July, the Russian army has not been able to launch an attack on any section of the front line (those launched in the west of Bachmut and Donetsk are not called attacks, but harassment).
Ukrainian army launched a counterattack in the north of Khelson at the end of August. No Russian troops were killed in the battle, but the Himas paralyzed the key bridge crossing point on the Dnieper River , causing the Russian army on the right bank of the Dnieper River to fall into a desperate situation without food and bullets. After the attack on the Crimea Bridge was paralyzed, it was even more difficult for the Russian army to support Khlsong. The "Ham" anti-radar missile supported by the US military was first put into use in Khlsong, and it paralyzed the Russian air defense network in this area several times. Russian combat aircraft could no longer support the Russian combat operations on Khlsong. Since then, the Russian army has been unable to maintain its existence on the right bank of the Dnieper River and has to retreat in early November.
Because the Russian army lost excessively in previous battles, the Ukrainian army used 25,000 troops in early September to launch an attack on the Russian Western Military Region Group east of Kharkov in wheeled infantry fighting vehicles and lightweight armored vehicles, which caused the collapse of the Russian military defense system in just two days. Without large-scale firefights, the Ukrainian army broke through 40 to 60 kilometers of Russian positions, successively captured or bypassed villages and towns such as Baraklia and Shevchenkovo, and easily captured Kupiansk, the key transportation hub of the Russian army. When the Russian army in Ijium heard the news, they didn't care about anything and had to escape overnight. They didn't have time to take away the fine and soft washing machines that they had robbed. Afterwards, the Ukrainian army counted and seized more than 300 tanks and countless armored vehicles, which completely ruined the Russian army's majesty.
The war has entered the fourth stage, which is the brief stalemate stage. Recently, due to the mud period, neither side has launched a large-scale military operation, which can be seen from the small amount of heavy equipment lost by the Russian army in the Ukrainian military war reports every day. My judgment is that once the mud period is over, there will be major military operations.
Looking back on the entire war, the Ukrainian army not only fought vividly, but also got better and better. From late November to the present, new aid has been continuously transported into Ukraine, new forces have been continuously finished training, returning to Ukraine from Britain and Poland, and Ukrainian troops withdrawn from the right bank of the Khlsong Dnieper River have been continuously transferred to other areas. It is reasonable to believe that the Ukrainian army is concentrating its forces and is about to launch a large-scale offensive to speed up the process of victory in the war. We will wait and see what the details are. As a daily article recording and interpretation of the war, I will continue to write every day and give you wonderful analysis. I hope everyone will encourage you!
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Information source: 2022-12-03 WeChat official account Sleep during the day and wake up at night
https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/-9pa-Au2htVNjxZX8pU1Fw
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