On the battlefield of Russia and Ukraine, the U.S. inventory of shells is exhausted, and it is impossible to even guarantee the Ukrainian army's demand for howitzer barrels. According to the US " New York Times ", the Ukrainian army fires at least 4,000 shells every day. The Ukrainian army has a total of 350 Western artillery . On average, one artillery fires 342 shells per month.
The barrel life of a cannon is only 2,000-4,000 rounds. Therefore, the United States must ensure that on average, dozens of high-quality barrels are replaced for Ukraine every month. However, in recent years, the United States has attached great importance to the development of Navy and Air Force missiles and precision guided bombs , and has neglected the production of artillery and barrels. The capacity of , the Waterfleet Artillery Arsenal, a veteran American century-old artillery factory, has long dropped significantly.
After 2000, the United States mainly attached importance to the development of stealth fighter jets, off-defense strike missiles, air-launched precision-guided munitions, Army long-range precision-strike systems and Navy ground strike capabilities. The Army also mainly develops security warfare equipment, such as various anti-mine counter-ambuster vehicles used in and Afghanistan .
Therefore, the production of howitzers and shells in the United States are very low, and the US military never expects artillery to play any role in wars. The US military mainly relies on the air force to bomb, and then the army occupied the positions and suppressed the guerrillas. To this end, in 2021, the United States will produce only 74,000 shells in the annual output of 155 shells, while the Russian army fired 50,000 shells in a day on the Russian-Ukrainian battlefield. The US's annual artillery shell production is enough for the Russian army to fight for one and a half days, and the Ukrainian army to fight for two weeks.
At the same time, in order to accelerate the victory of the Russian-Ukrainian war, Russian media reported that the Russian General Staff is preparing to mobilize another 5 million Russians. Of course, these 5 million people do not need to be devoted to the battlefield to fight.
From the documents published by the Russian media, it can be seen that the Russian General Staff believes that the Russian army has weaknesses in insufficient training, discipline and officer command capabilities, and its weapons and equipment are outdated and its command system is backward. The Ukrainian army now has a large number of high-quality weapons and equipment, and commanders at all levels can make decisions independently on the battlefield, so it is not easy to defeat the Ukrainian army.
And Russia needs to mobilize another 5 million troops. On the one hand, it will enrich the Russian combat troops, and at the same time it will expand the reserve troops, establish a militia team to strengthen protection of key areas and borders, and at the same time, it will also invest more manpower in Russia's military industry to expand military production.
Some Russian experts even believe that the Russian-Ukrainian war may last until 2025, so Russia must be prepared for a long-term large-scale war.
So, with the possibility of US aid decline and Russia needs to mobilize further, can Ukraine support this winter? Russia's current attack on Ukraine's power system is to attack Ukraine's most important strategic node. It is necessary to crack down on and disintegrate the power system, which will lead to the collapse of the entire Ukrainian society.
Using the means to crack down on Ukrainian social nodes, Ukraine forced to accept the conditions proposed by Russia. Crack down on power generation facilities, water supply facilities, this facility, that facility, winter comes, Ukraine will be frozen, have no water, freeze to death, and die of thirst.
However, it is hard to say whether this tactic can be successful in the end. It mainly depends on how many transformers and generators the West can continue to assist Ukraine, how much diesel is used for power generation, how many power plants repair spare parts, and how many air defense missile systems are. The most important thing is to see how much the Ukrainian people are preparing to pay.
If this does not force Ukraine to admit defeat, then they can blow up their refineries, gas stations, etc. But what if the United States and the West start aiding the F-15 and F-16 fighter jets ? Since the beginning of summer, a large number of Ukrainian pilots and ground crews have been trained in the United States.
Therefore, whether Ukraine can support this winter depends mainly on three points, how much price the Ukrainian people are willing to pay and how much able they can bear it. The second thing is to look at the continuous strike capabilities of Russian missiles.Third, it depends on when the United States will deliver F-15 and F-16 fighter jets to the Ukrainian army. This year, the United States has retired 26 F-16 fighter jets and 21 A-10 attack aircraft .
