On the eve of the referendum in the four places in Ukraine, Putin announced in a televised speech to the whole country that if territorial integrity is threatened, Russia will use all means to protect its territory and citizens. In addition, on the same day, Putin signed a partial mobilization decree.
Against this backdrop, with the Russian State Duma officially approving the four Ukrainian regions to join Russia in early October, many people are worried about the situation in Russia and Ukraine. After all, Russia has used nuclear sticks as a threat many times before, and no one can confirm that Putin will not use this weapon to protect the "new territory."
However, analysts noticed that Russia seems to be far more restrained than expected. On the one hand, at the UN General Assembly meeting not long ago, the Russian ambassador made it clear that Russia has no plan to use nuclear weapon in Ukraine. On the other hand, even though the Khlsong area was almost lost earlier, Moscow did not easily press the nuclear button , but instead continued to fight offensive and defensive battles with the Ukrainian army in the form of conventional battles through reinforcements.
Not only that, Moscow still did not choose to take the lead in the face of the United States' deployment of the 101st Airborne Division to Romania and NATO 's large-scale nuclear deterrence exercise. In response, the Russian army held the "Thunder-2022" nuclear force exercise as scheduled, and Putin personally took charge of the command. But the US said that Moscow notified in advance Washington . In other words, compared to the death-ending battle, Putin does not seem to want to make things worse. All the actions taken by Russia are, in a sense, more like being led by the West.
The ancients often said that something abnormal will happen. In response to this, US media recently pointed out that in fact, Putin has been waiting and watching for several months. According to US media, Putin hopes to break the " Washington Consensus ", and the first crack has emerged as the United States hastily deployed nuclear weapons in Europe.
According to the domestic media " Global Times ", US media revealed on the 27th that the United States originally planned to deploy the latest version of the B61-12 tactical nuclear bomb to Europe next spring, but at this month's NATO meeting, US officials announced the advance news of the plan. According to relevant documents, the deployment time will be advanced until the end of this year. However, a person familiar with the matter said that the specific time may be further advanced.
Based on the current situation, the Biden administration's move is not ruled out to better protect European allies. After all, with the spillover of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, European countries can be said to be in danger of their own risk. From a realistic perspective, in the face of a nuclear power like Russia, there is indeed no other way to deal with it except "using nuclear power to control nuclear".
It is reported that compared with the old B61 nuclear bomb , the latest version of B61-12 has higher accuracy. In addition, in addition to the United States' strategic bomber , the fighter , such as F15, F16 and F35, which the United States has exported to European allies, can carry it.
Theoretically, the US B61-12 tactical nuclear bomb can indeed bring a lot of security to European countries. But some observers believe that in the current situation of increasing tensions in geopolitical , such deployment will only further stimulate Moscow to take extreme measures as a counterattack.
Anyone with discerning eyes knows that whether it is the United States or Europe, they don’t want to confront Russia head-on. From this perspective, the Biden administration's move is completely pushing Europe into the fire pit.
There is a news that recently, EU has intentionally slowed down the speed of aid to Ukraine. In addition, US media pointed out that the scale of weapons provided by almost all European countries is significantly different from previous commitments. Analysts believe that the reason for this is mostly because Europe wants to stop losses. Faced with many difficulties such as the energy crisis and conflict spillovers, it is difficult for them to convince themselves to continue to follow the United States and pursue the fire.
It can be predicted that if the United States really accelerates its nuclear weapons deployment, European countries may even refuse. After all, no one dares to gamble, Putin won't press the nuclear button. It is not difficult to see that in this game of nuclear blackmailing , Putin is obviously better.Analysts believe that Europe and the United States are likely to be something Putin is waiting for.
The Russian army has now destroyed a large number of Ukrainian military facilities and energy facilities, which will greatly limit the logistics of the Ukrainian army in winter operations. At the same time, Europe's energy problem has not been resolved for a long time. Winter is coming soon. The longer the time is delayed, the lower the enthusiasm of Europe to aid Ukraine will be. From this perspective, Putin's waiting is definitely worth it.
As for what Putin is waiting and watching, analysts believe that it is mostly related to the US midterm elections in November.
Republican people are now at a clear advantage, and, they have made it clear that if elected, they will reduce aid to Ukraine. In addition, earlier, Democratic lawmakers jointly requested Biden and to promote peace talks between Russia and Ukraine. Although the joint letter was quickly withdrawn, as long as the Republicans held on, perhaps voices against aid to Ukraine would likely become mainstream in the midterm elections.
Obviously, the results of the midterm elections are important to Putin. If the Democrats lose, many problems will be solved. On the contrary, Putin may have to make the worst.
