As the strategic game between China and the United States continues to heat up, the United States continues to increase its efforts to "use Taiwan to control China", and continues to blur and empty the "one China" policy. The Taiwan authorities fantasize about using foreign powers to respect themselves, "resisting unification with force" and "relying on the United States to seek independence." In response, the mainland has repeatedly warned that "Taiwan independence" means war. If the "Taiwan independence" forces provoke and force, or even break through the bottom line, the mainland will take all decisive measures that can be used to resolutely thwart any "Taiwan independence" separatist plot. So, once an armed conflict breaks out on the cross-strait, will the United States send troops to the Taiwan Strait?
In fact, US President Biden made it very clear, and the answer is yes. President Biden has made similar remarks four times in succession. If the mainland uses military means to resolve the Taiwan issue, the United States will send troops to the Taiwan Strait. In this regard, some point of view pointed out that the United States is changing its "strategic vague" policy toward Taiwan and tends to "strategic clarity". "Strategic ambiguity" means that the US government's position on the Taiwan Strait issue is vague, and does not indicate how it will respond to the mainland's military means to resolve the Taiwan issue in order to maintain its flexible space to prevent the mainland from taking unified actions; while "strategic ambiguity" is the US's response policy when it clearly states that the mainland uses force to restore the exercise of jurisdiction over Taiwan.
For decades, Washington has taken a vague position on whether the mainland will intervene by force when resolving the Taiwan issue by military means, neither saying that it will nor saying that it will not. Those who support "strategic ambiguity" believe that the policy has maintained decades of peace in the Taiwan Strait and has played a role in curbing conflicts in the Taiwan Strait. In addition, on the one hand, the United States can use the Taiwan issue to force the mainland to be restrained, and on the other hand, through the sale of military force to Taiwan, the United States' military enterprise has benefited. Therefore, there is no need for the United States to change its "strategic vague" policy towards Taiwan. But those who support "strategic clarity" believe that Washington should clearly tell China that if military means are used to resolve the Taiwan issue, the United States will definitely send troops to intervene, so that the mainland can understand the cost of "military unification" and dispel its idea of using force.
There is a point of view that there are many more people who believe Biden’s words than surely believe that there are definitely more people who believe in whether the United States will really send troops to the Taiwan Strait and prevent the mainland from regaining Taiwan Island . Those who do not believe in the United States sending troops believe that since the nuclear weapons and , no direct war broke out between nuclear powers. Because both sides know that there is no winner in nuclear war , even if you start fighting with conventional weapon , it is difficult to guarantee that you will not upgrade to nuclear war. After the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, the United States did not send troops, but only gave Ukraine intelligence and weapons, just because it was worried about the nuclear war with Russia. Therefore, if there is a conflict in the Taiwan Strait, most people believe that the United States will not send troops to help Taiwan.
However, the "Taiwan independence" forces advocate that Taiwan Island is the throat area where the United States defends mainland China in the first island chain. If the mainland regains Taiwan Island, the United States' island chain encirclement strategy will be invalid, and the United States will have to retreat to Guam , and the second island chain of is also in danger and may not be able to defend it. Therefore, the important geostrategic value of Taiwan Island will enable the United States to conduct armed intervention. In addition, the United States relies heavily on the alliance system. If it sits aside from the mainland's Taiwan acquisition, other allies' trust in the United States will be shaken, the United States' credibility will go bankrupt, and its hegemony may decline. Therefore, if armed conflicts occur in the Taiwan Strait in the future, the United States will inevitably intervene.
For the "illusions" on the island, they are certainly willing to believe that the United States will send troops to the Taiwan Strait and maintain the situation of "not unification and independence" and "dividing and governing" between the two sides of the Taiwan Strait. However, the US military has to admit that it does not expect to win. Recently, the US Air Force Deputy Chief of Staff Lauderbeck helped to admit that the PLA's development speed in recent years was too astonishing, far exceeding the expectations of senior US military leaders, so the US military could not expect to win the conflict in the Taiwan Strait. He said that if it were thirty years ago, the US Air Force did have an overwhelming strength advantage, and the US F-15, F-16 fighter , etc. were far more advanced than the J-7 and J-8.But now, although the US military is equipped with F-22 and F-35 fighter jets, the PLA has also equipped J-20, J-16, and J-10C "Three Musketeers of the Air Force". The US military no longer has the technological advantages to China.
It is obvious that since the US military admits that they do not expect to win, it is impossible for them to risk failure to have a face-to-face showdown with China. The saying "I don't expect to win" can be understood as the United States may also send troops to the Taiwan Strait, but it is just a show of itself, or provide intelligence and weapons support to the Taiwan side. The reason is very simple. If the US military conflicts with the People's Liberation Army in the Taiwan Strait, it is very likely to suffer a defeat. The results of more than a dozen military pushes made by the American think tank Rand Company for many years show that except for the early American victory, China won. Therefore, the United States cannot take huge security risks and showdowns with mainland China.
In fact, in addition to the PLA's weapons being quickly catching up with the United States, China is also ahead of the United States in some aspects, such as China's supersonic anti-ship missiles. More importantly, Taiwan is China's Taiwan, and the PLA has a home advantage in fighting in the Taiwan Strait. Since we are fighting in the near-shore, the US aircraft carrier cannot exert its strike capabilities. What's more, the PLA's vigorous development of "anti-intervention/regional denial" capabilities is specifically targeting possible armed intervention by the US military. Therefore, although the United States does want to send troops to the Taiwan Strait, its strength no longer allows them to do whatever they want.
