On February 5 this year, General Mark Mili , Chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff, said: If Russia invades Ukraine, then Kiev may fall within 72 hours.
However, not all the "experts" said it wrong, and many people still predicted the situation today.
Interestingly, most of the people who say it is right are Russians.
The most famous of them is Hodalonok, who was the former commander of the Russian Air Defense Forces and later worked in the Russian General Staff.
This guy in Russian has a bit like our "bureau" and is also a retired soldier of . They often become guests on Russian TV 1 military programs.
However, in terms of level and insight, the bureau...
Before the war began, Hodalonoke wrote a commentator article titled "The Prediction of the Bloodthirsty Political Analyst: Talk about the Warm Eagle and the Hurry Cuckoo".
is inside, and he directly concluded that if he really fights, the Russian army might be ruined.
Someone may say that this grandson is confused, right? Anyway, there are two outcomes in war: victory or failure. You say that the success rate is 50% if you want to be successful!
Get out of here! Mr. Huo said it well!
In this article, Hodalanok first pointed out that after Russia annexed Crimea in 2014, many Russians thought it was easy to deal with Ukraine.
But in fact, even in the eastern part of Russia, where Russian tribes are mainly , most people do not want to join the Russian Federation.
Although Russia has planned independence in eastern Ukraine since 2014, it has not been successful and has suffered heavy casualties.
Russians underestimated the resistance of Ukrainians .
Secondly, Russia's public opinion overestimates its own strength, and at the same time underestimates Ukraine.
Although the Russian army has many weapons and powerful firepower that are claimed to be the world's advanced level, this is not that sufficient for conquering Ukraine, the second largest country with a population of 40 million.
Hodalonok is from an air defense missile force, so he pays special attention to Ukraine's air defense forces. He thinks it is very powerful and has caused great trouble to the Russian army.
In the 2008 war against Georgia , Ukraine sent air defense missile troops to help Georgia, causing huge losses to the Russian Air Force on the first day, which shocked and angry the Russian senior Russian officers at that time!
And if Russia starts war against Ukraine, NATO will definitely help, and Ukraine's air defense will be stronger by then.
What's more heavier is that Hodalanok also specifically pointed out that before 2014, Ukraine's armed level was indeed very nasty. According to him, it was a slag that fell from the big cake of the Soviet army.
But after Russia annexed Crimea in 2014, the Ukrainian army underwent earth-shaking changes. After years of training from NATO, they are now a NATO standard modern army.
Hodalonok also said that the Ukrainian air force is still relatively nasty and the aircraft is relatively backward, but even so, it can compete with Russian aircraft for a few times.
Of course, he also said that the Russian army is stronger than Ukraine, which is certain.
He just wanted to say that if he despises the Ukrainians for this, he might make a mistake.
Hodalonok finally said that even if Russia can really completely defeat the Ukrainian government forces, based on the Ukrainians, especially the Ukrainians in the western region, the Russian army will also fall into the endless guerrilla warfare after that.
After all, even a tough character like Stalin used the powerful Ministry of Internal Affairs and millions of Soviet troops, and it took ten years to deal with the Western Ukrainian people at that time.
Let’s say, now you see what Hodalyoke said, are every sentence full of good words?
In fact, he is not the only one who holds a similar view in Russia.
Russia's famous extreme nationalist, the pioneer of Russia's annexation of Crimea in 2014, and Strekov, who once served as the Minister of Armed Forces and Minister of Defense of the "Donetsk Republic", said in an interview with Russian state television station on March 9 this year: This war may end with Russia's collapse.
He believes that the situation in Russia is "very serious", not only being sanctioned by Western countries, but some Central Asian regions may also be threatened by the superposition of multiple factors.
Therefore, he suggested that the Russian army must immediately mobilize all its forces to ensure that Ukraine is quickly defeated, otherwise the outcome will be unpredictable.
You can take a look at it. The subsequent international situation and the situation on the battlefield are really what Strekov said.
Recently, Putin has finally announced that it will carry out "local mobilization" in Russia.
But that was half a year after Strekov said this.
According to Strekov's latest statement, these are useless because in the previous wars, the Russian army had consumed too much soldiers, materials and morale.
Whether it is an officer or a soldier, the old ones have too many casualties. New additions are difficult to form combat effectiveness in a short period of time due to lack of sufficient training. Failure is a foregone conclusion, and the rest is a matter of time.
Objectively speaking, it is too early to draw conclusions about the Russian-Ukrainian war, but we can see some differences between the two armies of the United States and Russia:
The whole world knows that the US military often overestimates its opponents. This is based on strategic prudence, and more importantly, it is to ask Congress for money. Perhaps this is why General Mili said that the Russian army took Kiev 72 hours.
But before the war, Russia thought the situation was very good, but the result...
Interestingly, Russia is not without understanding people, just like the Russian general Andrei Kartapolov recently said in public criticism of Russian Ministry of Defense :
is your work style of reporting good news but not bad news, which has led to the failure now.
He also said that although we have discussed it many times (what you lie), I don’t know why? Our president just doesn't seem to know.
If Russia really fails in the end, maybe this is the real reason.
