Pen/Axeman Xiaohu Dao
In the past two days, Korean politics and media have been talking about a focus topic. needs to re-adopt the US tactical nuclear weapon in South Korea? or share nuclear weapons with the United States as an extended deterrent plan.
According to the latest disclosure of South Korea's diplomatic and defense departments, South Korea and the United States are discussing the plan to deploy the US strategic weapon in South Korea in a timely manner after consultation. South Korean President Yoon Seo-yeol also seemed more cautious this time. In an interview on the 13th, he said that he was listening to various opinions within South Korea and the US government and opposition on extending deterrence, and carefully considering various possibilities.
In fact, the peninsula has been not peaceful during this period. After the United States and South Korea resumed large-scale exercises participated in nuclear-powered aircraft carriers, anti-direction exercises between the United States, Japan and South Korea were staged again. The United States is pushing the US-Japan-South Korea military alliance to the surface step by step.
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A spokesperson for the South Korean Ministry of Foreign Affairs responded to a question on whether South Korea negotiated with the United States on redeploying tactical nuclear weapons, saying that South Korea and the United States are discussing specific cooperation plans to strengthen the extension of deterrence, including the timely deployment of US strategic weapons after consultation.
Earlier that day, South Korea's Deputy Minister of Defense Shin Fancheon also said in a radio program, "It is more preferable to redeploy tactical nuclear weapons than to redeploy tactical nuclear weapons, South Korea first negotiates with the United States and deploy available US strategic weapons on the Korean Peninsula in a timely manner."
Regarding the question of whether it is necessary to share nuclear weapons with the United States, Shen Fanche replied that South Korea and the United States have not yet discussed this, but have discussed what strategic weapons the United States will send and what power to North Korea to curb the threat control situation on the northern peninsula.
Regarding the claim that "US strategic attack aircraft, nuclear-powered aircraft carriers, nuclear-powered submarines, etc. should be deployed around the Korean Peninsula in normal times", Shen Fanche said that this situation can be said to be the sharing of nuclear weapons between the two countries, but the two sides have not discussed these contents at present. He said that it is not appropriate to disclose at present what method and when to deploy US strategic weapons. Here, we can only disclose the various options for extending deterrence South Korea and the United States are discussing.
Some people believe that due to the United States' insistence on the tone of non-proliferation policy, the plan to redeploy tactical nuclear weapons in South Korea is likely to be difficult to get a response from the United States. This is also the reason why the South Korean Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the Ministry of Defense maintain a cautious attitude on related issues. If the South Korean government abandons the tone of denuclearization policy, it must also consider the impact on the security situation on the peninsula such as neighboring countries.
It is worth noting that in response to the reporter's question about "there are reports that South Korea has requested the US to conduct nuclear sharing", Yoon Seo-yeol said on the way to work on the 12th that is listening to various opinions from within South Korea and the US government and opposition on extending deterrence, and carefully weighing the various possibilities.
In fact, during the election campaign for president, Yoon Seo-yeol repeatedly expressed a less positive position on the deployment of tactical nuclear weapons and the introduction of NATO -style "nuclear sharing" model.
Nowadays, Yoon Seok-yeol's view on deploying tactical nuclear weapons seems to have changed. On this issue, his current statement is different from his previous attitude. The recent increase in opinions on the necessity of nuclear weapons has been raised compared with the previous one, which really makes Yoon Seok-young also a headache.
According to Korean media analysis, Yoon Seo-yue will insist on not being separated from the " NPT Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons" (NPT) system.
In other words, South Korea's nuclear weapons for nuclear weapons through independent research and development of nuclear weapons is not an option to consider at this stage.
South Korean Presidential Office is paying close attention to the dynamics and trends of domestic public opinion.Because how to solve this problem is closely related to Yoon Seo-yeol's support in China. Even if the US agrees to promote tactical nuclear weapons deployment within the nuclear non-proliferation system, it is necessary to form a broad national consensus in South Korea.
It is obvious that Yoon Seok-yeol government must persuade more people to accept this choice.
However, it is very important to break the principles that South Korea has long adhered to, how to explain to the Korean people and form a broad consensus.
As we all know, although the explosion equivalent is much smaller than normal nuclear weapons, the nuclear radiation and strike range are also much lower than common nuclear weapons. However, it is still a nuclear weapon after all. Once this gate is opened, what Korean people may be most worried about is the continuous escalation of the power of nuclear weapons.
At that time, is it still too late to step on the brake?
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13, South Korean media commented that if South Korea abandons its nuclear non-proliferation policy, it must consider various factors such as relations with China and the complex game between China and the United States around the Korean Peninsula. A senior South Korean Foreign Ministry official said on the same day that there was no question on whether to exchange opinions with neighboring countries such as China on the deployment of US strategic nuclear weapons.
In response to some questions from Korean media, the ruling party of the South Korean side proposed that South Korea needs to redeploy the US tactical nuclear weapons. What is China’s comment on this? Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Mao Ning responded on the 13th that we have noticed relevant reports that all relevant parties should abide by their international obligations and commitments and maintain peace and stability on the peninsula and the region with practical actions.
South Korea's World Journal reported on the 13th that South Korea's plans are roughly the following three:
First, re-deploy US tactical nuclear weapons in South Korea; second, the United States adopts NATO-style nuclear protection against South Korea; third, South Korea develops nuclear weapons on its own, etc.
Now, the only thing that has been publicly mentioned is the deployment of tactical nuclear weapons in South Korea. During the Cold War, the United States deployed more than 100 nuclear weapons in South Korea, but with the end of , the Cold War, , all the US nuclear weapons in South Korea were withdrawn.
Nowadays, although South Korea requires the redeployment of US nuclear weapons, thus "maintaining the balance of nuclear weapons on the peninsula" has begun to emerge, domestic experts in South Korea have different opinions on the effectiveness of tactical nuclear weapons.
opposing side believes that South Korea's tactical nuclear weapons may become the target of the opponent's key nuclear attacks. Therefore, compared with the deployment of tactical nuclear weapons in South Korea, the nuclear submarine in South Korea seems to be more effective.
At the same time, experts also pointed out that just like the previous deployment of THAAD , redeployment of nuclear weapons in South Korea will inevitably lead to great division of Korean society.
If tactical nuclear weapons are deployed in South Korea, the most likely weapon at present is the US B-61 tactical nuclear bomb. The bomb can be carried on the strategic bomber such as B-2 and B-52, or on the fighter such as F-16 and F-35.
In view of the current situation on the peninsula, many scholars believe that the United States is pushing the situation to a more tense position. Compared with the past, there are a significant increase in military exercises between the United States and South Korea, as well as the United States, Japan and South Korea.
A few days ago, the United States, South Korea and Japan held the Three Kingdoms anti-ballistic missile exercise. It is self-evident who the exercise targets.
USS Reagan nuclear-powered aircraft carrier strike group, two Japanese ships , and a South Korean destroyer , arrived in the eastern part of the Korean Peninsula on October 5.The U.S. Department of Defense News Office said that this move is to send a signal that allies are firmly united and improve their coordinated combat effectiveness.
In addition to the three-way anti-direction exercises of the United States, Japan and South Korea, another military exercise between the U.S. and South Korea was held in the waters east of South Korea on October 7 and 8. "The exercise aims to continue to strengthen combat capabilities and be prepared to deal with certain provocations through joint exercises involving the "Reagan" aircraft carrier."
North Korea condemned that the United States re-deployed the "Reagan" nuclear-powered aircraft carrier near the peninsula after nearly five years, saying that this poses a serious threat to the stability of the situation.
Recently, the signs of the United States' promotion of South Korea and Japan to participate in military exercises together are very obvious. Before these two exercises, South Korea and Japan participated in multi-national anti-directorial exercises held by the United States in Hawaii. This has to be wary. The United States is vigorously promoting the formation of the US-Japan-South Korea military alliance and even creating the "Asian Little NATO".
Yoon Seok-yeol government may also hope to take advantage of Japan's power in dealing with external threats. After all, Japanese Self-Defense Forces does have great advantages in anti-missile and anti-submarine operations. Compared with Ground Self-Defense Force , its Maritime Self-Defense Force and the Aviation Self-Defense Force, its Maritime Self-Defense Force is the strongest.
Because during the Cold War, the main goal of Japan's Maritime Self-Defense Force was to resist the nuclear submarines of the Soviet Pacific Fleet after the outbreak of the war, so its anti-submarine capabilities were second only to the United States in the Asia-Pacific region. Until now, the anti-submarine capabilities of the Maritime Self-Defense Force are also among the best in the global navies.
However, South Korea, the United States and Japan conducted joint military exercises in the eastern waters of South Korea twice at the end of September and early October, causing pro-Japanese controversy in South Korea. Against this background, South Korea's largest opposition party, , the Democratic Party, , the leader of , , posted on his social account on 411 that "nation nations that forget history have no future", which attracted attention.
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Researcher at the Institute of Asia-Pacific and Global Strategy of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences Wang Junsheng analyzed "Puyidao" that Korean conservatives believe that if they want to strengthen their alliance with the United States, a very important tool is to deploy American weapons in South Korea. South Korea has always been worried about being abandoned by the United States, especially in emergencies. If the United States’ advanced weapons are deployed in South Korea in military terms, and the degree of military integration between the United States and South Korea is very high, it will be difficult for the United States to let go at that time. Whether
will be deployed in the end? Wang Junsheng said that this is not something that South Korea can do with wishful thinking, mainly depends on the United States. The United States has been silent on this matter in the past and is very cautious. When the South Korean special envoy visited the United States in April this year, the US Department of Defense's response was not considered, but the US attitude later changed. In May, Biden and publicly stated that they might be deployed in a joint statement of US and South Korea. Recently, the United States has taken a step forward in this direction and said it will take all measures to protect South Korea. So it seems that there is a possibility of deployment.
But it cannot be said that it will definitely be deployed, mainly because once strategic nuclear weapons are deployed, this is not a small matter and has a serious impact on the security situation in East Asia.
Therefore, the US side should consider the comprehensive impact of this move on cooperation between major powers, international situation and regional security situation.
Wang Junsheng believes that the main reason for the change in the US attitude is that South Korea and Japan currently have an increasing sense of distrust in the US. Although the Yoon Seo-yeon administration said that the United States would protect me, it was actually very guilty. So more and more Koreans said that we need nuclear weapons. In fact, it was South Korea's distrust of the United States' security commitment to South Korea, worried that the United States would abandon it. The Biden administration gradually let go of it, showing to South Korea and Japan that I still have the ability to protect your safety.
There is no doubt that the United States is now the biggest promoter of the US, Japan and South Korea military alliance. He hopes that the missile defense system in South Korea will be further strengthened and medium-range missiles will be deployed in Japan. In this way, the United States, Japan and South Korea plus Guam can be connected, but it still needs to be observed whether it can be done at the moment. The biggest shortcoming of the trilateral cooperation between the United States, Japan and South Korea is still in the relationship between Japan and South Korea. The support rate of the Yoon Seo-young government and the Kishida government are relatively low. Neither government has a large political and public opinion basis to achieve a historic reconciliation of Japan and South Korea relations. Without this, it will be difficult to establish a trilateral alliance between the United States, Japan and South Korea. It seems that although the US's small abacus is very loud, the time may not be ripe to implement it.
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