The Russian army has deployed air-based and sea-based long-range cruise missiles for three consecutive days to launch large-scale strikes on Ukrainian energy and military command systems. When the outside world questioned whether the Russian army had the ability to continue to maintain such missile strike mode, it was suddenly heard that " Iranian may intend to provide long-range missile to Russia".
US "power" website said on the 11th that since the Russian military's inventory of precisely guided missiles outside the defense zone are rapidly decreasing, considering that Russia has previously purchased Iran-made drones, the Russian army will put Iran-made ballistic missiles and cruise missiles into the Russian-Ukrainian conflict in the future, which does not seem to indicate that it is impossible.
reported that Iranian official media briefly proposed the idea of "Iran provides ballistic missiles to Russia" last weekend, and said that in a missile attack on Donetsk , the Russian army used certain characteristics of Iran's medium-range ballistic missile . Although the report was quickly deleted, it at least proves that it is not the only West that speculates that "Iran will provide missiles to Russia."
According to public reports, the main weapons used by the Russian army to strike Ukrainian targets include "caliber" cruise missiles that can be launched from warships and submarines , "Iskander" tactical ballistic missiles, KH-555 and KH101 series air-launched cruise missiles, etc. But they are expensive to manufacture. Under the current severe Western sanctions, their production and replenishment speed is slow due to the difficulty of obtaining key high-tech parts. It is said that the KH-555 cruise missile modified from the KH-55 cruise missile that can carry nuclear warhead may have been completely exhausted. The number of KH-101 missiles in stock in the Russian army is less than 100, and the monthly production speed is only 3-4.
reported that since the Russian Aerospace Forces have been unable to ensure air superiority against Ukraine and rarely use precisely guided gliding bombs to conduct large-scale attacks, the Russian army attaches great importance to weapons outside the defense zone - they meant tactical aircraft could strike Ukrainian targets without risking entry into dangerous airspace. However, the urgent need for such precisely guided missiles outside the defense zone has also directly led to their consumption, which has made "any alternative will be given relatively attention" - the Russian army has even begun to use the KH-22 anti-ship missile of the Cold War era to attack land targets.
When Russia's self-produced capacity cannot meet the needs, the Russian army needs to turn to foreign countries if it wants to replenish the missile database - and Iran, which has already provided hundreds of drones to Russia, has become one of the few possible options.
reported that Iran has developed a series of complex and longer range ballistic missiles, and they have been engaged in combat many times in the previous Middle East conflict. For example, in January 2020, dozens of short-range ballistic missiles of Qiam launched an attack on the US military's Assad Air Base in Iraq; in March 2022, 14 "Conqueror-110" missiles hit the surrounding areas of the US Consulate in Erbil, Iraq. "These weapons launched very fierce attacks on the target with impressive accuracy."
[Kadel Medium-range Missile]
According to Western estimates, Iran has developed at least 20 different ballistic missile designs, "This means that Russia can choose different models according to needs." For example, the range of "Unrest-1" is 500 miles, which means it can allow the Russian army to strike targets across Ukraine; while the strike range of the "Kadel Medium-range missile exceeds 1,200 miles, and the Russian army can launch strikes from a safe area far away from the Ukrainian border. Moreover, many models of Iranian missiles have a large inventory, which can quickly replenish the Russian army's empty ammunition database .
In addition, Iran has developed and equipped a considerable number of long-range cruise missiles, which have more or less connections with Soviet technology, which makes it more convenient for the Russian army to operate and use.
As for how to deliver it, just like NATO military aid to Ukraine, the current channel for the outside world to provide weapons assistance to the Russian-Ukrainian conflict has not been closed.According to reports, Iran can be transported directly by transport ships through Caspian , or can be provided by Iranian components, assembled locally in Russia and further locally manufactured, just like the Iranian drone provided to Russia.
【S-300V missile】
The author believes that if this speculation comes true, Ukraine may face more severe challenges. The Ukrainian army's anti-ballistic missile has very limited capabilities, mainly relying on a small number of Soviet-era S-300V missile systems, but the number is very small and basically consumed in the conflict for more than half a year. At the same time, NATO was unable to provide similar Soviet equipment from other former Soviet countries to supplement.
The United States and Germany provide Ukraine with surface-to-air missile systems modified from air-to-air missiles, mainly targeting aircraft and other targets. It may have a certain effect on cruise missiles, but neither can intercept ballistic missiles. The main thing that is enough to fight against Iran's ballistic missiles is the US "Patriot" series of anti-missile systems, which the United States has not yet considered providing to Ukraine. Moreover, this complex anti-missile system, , is probably not the Ukrainian army that can form combat capabilities in a short period of time.
