After cross-strait relations entered the "new normal", although the "frogs" on the island were calm on the surface, they were actually panicked. Not only were they secretly hoarding a large amount of supplies, they also spared no effort to analyze the opportunity when we were most likely to "take action". The so-called military experts on Taiwan often hype the so-called "hands-on precursor", including the mobilization of a large number of troops, the assembly of fighter jets and equipment to the coast, and the requisition of a large number of civilian transport ships. But they only know how to judge these superficial signs, and ignore many secret preparations before assembling the troops. In this regard, , the US think tank, , is still much more clever than those "experts" in Taiwan. For example, the following 4 "secret signs of preparation" they mentioned that may be ignored:
1. Improve ammunition reserves. "Food and grass should be the first before the troops move," the US think tank proposed to pay attention to China's key military supplies production. They believe that it has become a consensus to reserve a large amount of military supplies before the modern war, especially in the year before the war, China will definitely produce ballistic missiles and cruise missiles in large quantities. After all, "replicating" the US military's long-term tactic of " missile open circuit" can effectively prevent its own side from having a large number of casualties in the early stages of the war. Because the Russian army did not reach a certain intensity and density, it was extremely unfavorable at the beginning of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict. China will learn from the lessons and increase missile production and reserves in advance, which requires the construction of new factories and facilities, which are easily photographed by various military and commercial satellites and .
China's top 10 crude oil importers
In addition to the need to reserve a large number of missiles in advance, various emergency supplies are also the target of military procurement reserves, such as medicines. In addition, the US think tank also believes that in addition to the above preparation projects, it will also reduce the export of minerals, refined oil and grain products to improve self-sufficiency; it will also reduce the demand for oil and natural gas , prevent hostile forces from blocking my country's energy channels, thereby causing chaos; it will prioritize the production and development of military supplies. US think tank also pointed out that at that time, domestic elites and high-tech talents will also be restricted from going abroad.
2. Psychological intervention in China. Since war is going to fight, there will definitely be casualties. Therefore, the US think tank believes that the country will first make some psychological preparations for the public to prevent turmoil. The United States will also use its strong intelligence collection capabilities to disrupt these efforts, such as revealing to the cross-strait in advance how long a war may break out. This is not the first time the United States has done this. A few months before the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, the United States has repeatedly spread this "prophecy" on major media and social platforms in the world. It not only caused instability to the domestic situation in Russia, but also made countries with friendly relations with Russia feel a grudge, and even to a certain extent the Russian army was forced to take action in advance when it was not fully prepared. The United States is likely to do this when the situation in the Taiwan Strait deteriorates, so we must be vigilant and prepared for this.
3. Reorganize the army and military facilities one year before the war begins. American think tanks believe that another important signal to judge "hands off" is whether the troops suspend the normal discharge of soldiers and officers. After all, before the war is about to be launched, soldiers and officers who are purely technical and tactical will definitely be retained. This move will inevitably lead to the lack of the retirement season that year, and this news that affects the vital interests of a large number of soldiers and officers will definitely be spread through various public and private channels. At the same time, American think tanks speculate that we will stop the regular training of the troops from half a year to one year in advance and start the maintenance and maintenance of weapons and equipment. Some wartime field hospitals are set up near the boarding ports and airports where nearby combat troops gather, or there may be public blood donation sites. In addition, the military's mobile command post will also evacuate the base and move to hidden places. Logistics forces responsible for managing crude oil, oil and lubricating oil will be deployed together with the transport team in civil ports used to load offensive forces.
4. A comprehensive mobilization was carried out in the past few months before the action.American think tanks believe that this step may be the final preparation step before the formal operation is approaching. At this time, a large number of civilian ships will be requisitioned to assist the troops in loading combat soldiers and equipment, as well as various combat supplies and items, and the signs of reserve soldiers stationed in key coastal civil facilities to prevent chaos and enemy damage. At the same time, there will be many transportation tools and parts manufacturing companies in the mainland to prepare for war, and this move will lead to supply chain interruptions in foreign-funded enterprises operating in China. Therefore, this will be quickly noticed by the outside world along with the above situations, and domestic local media will also report it. So at this point, it may be the one we really "express our attitude" to the other side with practical actions - it is still the irreversible one!
Of course, the above four analysis of American think tanks is undoubtedly an "estimation" of us based on the US standpoint and thinking. Although we certainly cannot cover up some of the military mobilization and pre-war assemblies, some places are obviously too "speculated" by the United States. But even if American think tanks and Taiwan experts can accurately "predict" our action date, they are unable to change the outcome of the incident! Therefore, the biggest function of these so-called "several precursors" is actually to provide a relatively reliable "official time point" for the United States to evacuate personnel and assets from the island, and the opportunity for the "frogs" to escape from the island, and that's all.
