1: Introduction
No one wants war, However, due to too many uncertain factors, the hidden dangers of war have not been completely eradicated, and local conflicts still exist, , so many people are still worried that the war will break out and affect the social environment on which they rely on.
Under such a background, two major topics frequently topped the hot list:
: one is “whether the war breaks out can be predicted”, and the other is “what signs are not far from the war”. Today, the author will analyze these two topics in depth.
2: Can war outbreak be predicted?
From the actual situation, war outbreak is difficult to predict, but it cannot be cut with one knife and directly draw the conclusion that it is "unpredictable".
learns from history. Before every war breaks out, some information will be exposed. No war happens suddenly, and the reason is very intuitive:
On the one hand, no one will fight unprepared battles. Even if the incident happens suddenly, they will make some urgent preparations to make the losses smaller and the chance of winning greater.
On the other hand, once a war occurs, the impact on domestic economic development will not be small. will have an impact on international relations and situations, and changes will be earth-shaking. Therefore, before the war breaks out, countries that intend to provoke the war will change, and will increase the protection of their own citizens .
To sum up, the outbreak of war is predictable to a certain extent.
3: What signs appear, it is not far from the war
Based on the actual situation, the author summarized the following three points:
1: Military operations.
Every country will do its best to protect the interests of its own country, without exception.
When defending the country, strength accounts for the largest proportion, the highest proportion of strength, and military strength, which shows its importance.
, which means that if a certain scale of military operations suddenly occur in (including military exercises, multinational joint exercises, and military exchanges), even fails to enter the relevant sea and airspace of ships and passenger planes in other countries, it is very likely that war will occur or prepare for the war.
In fact, the reason why many countries vigorously develop national defense and military forces is that is to ensure that they have sufficient self-protection capabilities, and the second is to let others know their strength so that others dare not provoke easily, to avoid delaying their original development pace and expectations.
However, once a military exercise that should not have occurred suddenly and the frequency is still very high, it is very likely that the country is facing a great challenge and is not far from the war. They need to prepare for it and increase their chances of winning for themselves. The most important thing about
is that the cost of each military exercise in will not be too low, and no country in the world will joke about this.
2: Economic activities.
Economic strength is the foundation and lifeline of every country's development. Without sufficient financial support, all activities such as military, national defense, and diplomacy will be affected.
More importantly, in the context of economic globalization, "bilateral foreign exchange" is very common , and international trade and economic activities are also frequent.
We need to be clear that what is linked to economic and trade is monetary interests. This means that if there is no big conflict between the two sides of the trade, the economic activities of both sides will not change on a large scale, and no country will be unable to overcome the financial interests.
This means that if highlights sudden trade disputes such as "freezing of funds" (usually referring to foreign assets) and "separating trade relations", is very likely to cause changes, and the chance of conflict or war may be greatly increased.
Although modern warfare is very different from the past, both in scale and destruction are far higher than before, if both sides encounter principled issues such as "territorial sovereignty", it is still very likely that they can use war methods to completely solve the problem.
If it really comes to that time, even if the trade exchanges between the two countries are particularly close, the benefits earned will indeed account for a high proportion of the total value of GDP, and they will not be tied up. The issue of principle cannot allow any concessions.
In this regard, the United States needs to pay special attention to.
At present, the United States still does not stop playing the "Taiwan card", and cross-border intervention is also quite frequent. When the United States is doing these cross-border behaviors, it has not stopped normal trade with us.
In layman's terms, it means: While the United States is making profits in our country, it is also hindering our country's unification, is hindering our country's development and growth, and its behavior is indeed inappropriate.
Borrowing the above sentence, no country will be unable to get along with its interests, but no country will change its bottom line. The issue of principle cannot be compromised at all, and there are no exceptions. also hopes that the United States can stop in time and make the right choice, and not lose greater legitimate profits for "self-interest".
3: Public opinion orientation.
The outbreak of the war has a huge impact on national development, so no country will take the initiative to guide public opinion. This means that if a public opinion orientation suddenly appears that a war may begin, the possibility of a war breaking out will increase on a large scale.
It is not difficult to find from the examples of wars that have broken out in the past that some countries will use public opinion to build momentum in order to make themselves find a suitable reason to start a war, and then create a "righteous excuse" for themselves. This is the beginning of the Iraq War in .
At that time, the United States used various means to launch this war and made full use of "public opinion", claiming that Iraqi has very destructive weapons and equipment, and also built itself into a "just" side. , but even when the war ended, there was no so-called "evidence". shows the terrible aspects of "public opinion orientation".
Of course, this is just a way of public opinion that may cause war.
Another way is: all public opinion in the country has begun to unify the voice, and the information released has been supported and recognized by the people and the country and society. This possible war is legitimate and just.
At present, some countries or regions are still facing a situation of "delayed unification". Faced with the unscrupulous goals and improper measures of foreign forces, the parties need to let the domestic people and the international community know their attitudes and bottom lines, and they need to let the public opinion orientation play a role in the final stage.
The above three points are summary of the author based on the actual situation, past examples and the remarks of experts who have spoken out, and are also typical signs of possible war breaking out.
Of course, this does not mean that war will break out. If these situations really occur in actual situations, we should prepare in advance and try our best to avoid the war really happening.
As a man on earth, we all yearn for peace, but the possibility of war has not been completely eliminated. We do need to make comprehensive plans and do our best to peace.
If it really comes to that time, even if the trade exchanges between the two countries are particularly close, the benefits earned will indeed account for a high proportion of the total value of GDP, and they will not be tied up. The issue of principle cannot allow any concessions.
In this regard, the United States needs to pay special attention to.
At present, the United States still does not stop playing the "Taiwan card", and cross-border intervention is also quite frequent. When the United States is doing these cross-border behaviors, it has not stopped normal trade with us.
In layman's terms, it means: While the United States is making profits in our country, it is also hindering our country's unification, is hindering our country's development and growth, and its behavior is indeed inappropriate.
Borrowing the above sentence, no country will be unable to get along with its interests, but no country will change its bottom line. The issue of principle cannot be compromised at all, and there are no exceptions. also hopes that the United States can stop in time and make the right choice, and not lose greater legitimate profits for "self-interest".
3: Public opinion orientation.
The outbreak of the war has a huge impact on national development, so no country will take the initiative to guide public opinion. This means that if a public opinion orientation suddenly appears that a war may begin, the possibility of a war breaking out will increase on a large scale.
It is not difficult to find from the examples of wars that have broken out in the past that some countries will use public opinion to build momentum in order to make themselves find a suitable reason to start a war, and then create a "righteous excuse" for themselves. This is the beginning of the Iraq War in .
At that time, the United States used various means to launch this war and made full use of "public opinion", claiming that Iraqi has very destructive weapons and equipment, and also built itself into a "just" side. , but even when the war ended, there was no so-called "evidence". shows the terrible aspects of "public opinion orientation".
Of course, this is just a way of public opinion that may cause war.
Another way is: all public opinion in the country has begun to unify the voice, and the information released has been supported and recognized by the people and the country and society. This possible war is legitimate and just.
At present, some countries or regions are still facing a situation of "delayed unification". Faced with the unscrupulous goals and improper measures of foreign forces, the parties need to let the domestic people and the international community know their attitudes and bottom lines, and they need to let the public opinion orientation play a role in the final stage.
The above three points are summary of the author based on the actual situation, past examples and the remarks of experts who have spoken out, and are also typical signs of possible war breaking out.
Of course, this does not mean that war will break out. If these situations really occur in actual situations, we should prepare in advance and try our best to avoid the war really happening.
As a man on earth, we all yearn for peace, but the possibility of war has not been completely eliminated. We do need to make comprehensive plans and do our best to peace.
