Have the world safer since the end of World War II and the establishment of the new international order?
Over the past 70 years, the frequency and intensity of wars between countries have indeed declined.
In the 1950s, the world had more than 6 wars per year on average. By 2000, this number was less than 1. At the same time, the world did not break out again with the intensity of wars as fierce as the two world wars.
However, violence has not decreased, and is even increasing.
As former US Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman Dempsey said in a speech in 2012, the world is facing "the danger that has never been before ".
Returning to the current Russian-Ukrainian conflict, the "unprecedented danger" faced by the world is obviously the risk of nuclear war .
In recent months, under the publicity of Western media, senior Russian government officials including Putin , Medvedev , and Lavrov have repeatedly mentioned the possibility of using nuclear weapons to safeguard national sovereignty and territorial integrity.
In particular, Putin publicly stated at the "entry" ceremony of four Ukraine's "incoming Russia" on September 30 that the newly joined territory was protected by Russian nuclear weapons, the shadow of nuclear war increased again.
On October 7, Biden said in a speech at a fundraising event of the Democratic Party that the risk of nuclear "apocalypse" is at the highest level since Cuban missile crisis in 1962.
Biden said that since the Cuban missile crisis, the United States has not faced the prospect of apocalypse, and this is the first time.
Biden stressed that he knows Putin quite well, and The Russian leader’s remarks about nuclear weapons are by no means a joke —Russia’s nuclear threat is a real existence, especially in the context of the Russian army’s unsuccessful offensive.
Biden also warned that even the use of low-equivalent nuclear weapons could lead to a rapid out of control and ultimately global destruction.
This is the most severe and serious warning Biden has issued to the risk of nuclear war since the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict.
And the reason why I call it "an unprecedented danger" is that is because the Cuban missile crisis lasted only 13 days, but the Russian-Ukrainian conflict has lasted for more than 7 months, and there is still a trend of continuing .
It is worth noting that on the day Biden made the above remarks, Merkel also spoke out again on the situation in Russia and Ukraine.
On the same day, Merkel said at a commemorative event that the Russian-Ukrainian conflict was a "turning point". She once again called on the international community to take Russia's statement seriously, rather than treating it as a bluff from the beginning.
Merkel criticized Russia for "invasion" of Ukraine and believed that Russia was destroying the international community, including the former Soviet Union and Russia. However, she also emphasized that if you want to properly handle the Russian-Ukrainian rush, you must focus on the present and the future at the same time.
Merkel believes that only with the participation of Russia can Europe achieve lasting peace. She also told the audience that if cannot do this, " Cold War " will never really end.
This is the second time Merkel has spoken out about the situation in Russia and Ukraine in recent days.
Last Tuesday, September 27, she called for the West to regard Russia as a serious dialogue partner, and Putin's speech should never be ignored and must be taken seriously.
Since leaving office at the end of last year, Merkel has lived a life of simplicity and has almost stopped asking about political affairs. Even in the months after the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, she rarely expressed her views on the situation.
No one can relax in a leisurely retirement life, but he came to persuade the West to take Russia seriously and made a statement.
Merkel spoke out twice about the Russian-Ukrainian conflict within half a month because she noticed the danger. She grew up in East Germany and speaks Russian fluently. She is very familiar with the country of Russia and the leader of Putin.
Merkel is a European leader and her warnings about the risks of nuclear war are based mainly on European interests.Biden is the U.S. president and his warnings on the risks of nuclear war are based mainly on the U.S. national security.
But no matter who it is, they adhere to the principle and bottom line of " nuclear war cannot be won or ".
If the two world wars 's destruction of the world is 30% and 50% (this is just a hypothetical data for comparison), , once a nuclear war breaks out on a large scale, the destruction of the world will be as high as 80% or even 100% .
Looking back at the current world, the risk of nuclear war increases, the climate crisis and the intensification of energy crisis ... Is this really a new international order the world wants to see and establish?
at least this is something most people don't want to see.
