The Russia-Ukraine conflict has not changed since the Battle of Severodonetsk. During this period, Russia's attacks in Donbass were calculated based on residential areas.
Among them, there may be Russia's intention to freeze the front and reach a ceasefire; there may also be the reality that Ukraine is unable to counterattack and uses Haimas to attack Russia Khirson and Crimea!
When the ceasefire between the two sides cannot be reached, the Russian troop increase is unavoidable. It was under such circumstances that the Russian Third Army entered the Russian-Ukrainian border and assembled in Rostov . What will be its scale, equipment, combat direction and combat effects?
The Russian Third Army's military column
—. The Third Army
The Russian Army's 3rd Army is composed of recruited volunteers . Recruitment, formation, equipment, training, exercises... After several months, this new force formed a combat capability.
According to information from the U.S. and British intelligence agencies, the Russian Third Army has approximately 15,500 people and is equipped with modern weapons including T-90M, T-80BVM tanks, BMP-3 infantry fighting vehicles and other new weapons, as well as various artillery , The rocket launcher is also paired with the older Buk anti-aircraft missile and the Ural "Tornado-U" military armored truck.
Russian Third Army Corps
According to news from Russia, the Corps will be composed of a small tank division and two small motorized infantry divisions. These three division-level combat units are basically equivalent to standard brigades. .
2. The combat direction of the Third Army.
Due to the stalemate between the two sides, the Russian army's input of this full force will definitely break the balance and strengthen the attack power of the Russian army on that side.
combat direction one: Wunan.
According to Ukrainian intelligence department estimates, the most likely place for this unit to appear is on Zaporozhye or Kherson to Nikolaev front lines. The reason is to ensure the referendums in Kherson and Zaporizhia in mid-September!
Kherson, on August 24, the Russian army captured a new stronghold
However, based on the analysis of the battle situation, the Russian army on the front line of Kherson did not lack soldiers. What made the Russian army scratch its head the most was that its logistical supplies were troubled by the Ukrainian Seamass. In particular, the Antonov Bridge and the Dnieper Hydropower Station dam bridge connecting the two sides of the Dnieper River were repeatedly bombed.
It is already difficult to supply nearly 20,000 Russian troops in Hexi. With an additional 20,000 troops, supply will be even more difficult. In this way, as long as the balance on the front line of Kherson has not been broken, and the Russian army also captured the key settlement of Bragdanoye village on August 24, the Russian Third Army should not send its troops towards Nikolayev.
Zaporozhye is engaged in a war of words and an artillery war because of the huge nuclear power plant. The stalemate on the front seems foreseeable.
The Russian defenders outside the Zaporozhye Nuclear Power Plant
The Russian side has 16,500 people, and the combat direction of the three small divisions will not be in Wunan! A referendum requires victory on the battlefield as the basis, otherwise it will not count if you vote!
Combat direction 2. Southeastern front of Ukraine
Relative to Kherson, Nikolayev and Zaporozhye, the combat direction of Russia’s new force should be on the southeastern front of Ukraine: Malinka, Pisky, Avdeye Fuka is the main breakthrough direction! Reason:
1. Assembly point: Rostov.
According to the Ukrainian intelligence service, the Russian 3rd Army is gathering near Rostov and is about to cross the Russian-Ukrainian border from this direction. From the map, Rostov passes through Taganrog and reaches Donetsk in the west
Rostov to Donetsk
is connected to Malinka, Piski in the center, and Adevevka in the east. , slightly north of Bachmut line.
From the map, there is a railway line from Rostov to Donetsk, heavy weapons railway mobile delivery will be very fast.
If Russia wants to increase its troops in Kherson, its assembly point should be in Crimea. There are only road connections between Rostov via Mariupol and Kherson.
2. Front: Already broken through
Surrounding Malinka, Pisky, Adevevka on the edge of Donetsk and Bakhmut slightly north, the Russian army has been under artillery fire since launching the offensive on August 5. With the support of the enemy, they have torn through the opponent's defense line: the Russian army has attacked most of Malinka, the Russian army has conquered Pisky, and the encirclement situation of Adevevka has been completed.
The Russian army captured Pisky
However, according to the former Colonel of the Russian Federal Security Service, who made great contributions to the "return" of Crimea to Russia, the "Donetsk Communist Party" Strelkov, the former "Minister of Defense" of the Republic of China, also said that the brutal war of attrition had consumed a huge amount of DPR infantry combat power and that it was in urgent need of fresh troops to attack and advance the front in depth to achieve an attack on Krasmatorsk and even The "liberation" of in Slavyansk.
The Russian Third Army is here for this!
3. Supply line: The southeastern line of Ukraine is shorter than Nikolayev. It is much shorter from Rostov to Donetsk. It will be much less disturbed by Ukraine, but the opposite is true for the Ukrainian army.
Kherson Antonov Bridge
4. Ukrainian Army: Elites are still in eastern Ukraine
Although the war has passed half a year, some Russian military experts pointed out that most of Ukraine’s elite troops are still in the Donbas war zone.
Because the Ukrainian army in Donbas has no chance to withdraw westward: Since the beginning of the second phase of the operation, the Russian army has always put great pressure on the Ukrainian army in the Donbas theater. The Ukrainian army can only increase its troops and defend the defense line, but has no time to withdraw.
Ruwu's 54th Motorized Infantry Brigade and the 25th Air Force Brigade's two elite Ukrainian troops, one guarding Malinka, Pisky, and the other Avdeevka, have never moved, but now Donetsk is surrounded by Collect 6 brigades of Ukrainian troops!
Uzbek Army Special Forces
Based on the above four reasons, the main attack direction of the Russian Third Corps is most likely to be the southeastern front of Ukraine!
3. Possible combat effects of the Third Army
When the two sides are in a stalemate, the input of new troops from one side may immediately reverse the situation of the two sides. However, given Ukraine's solid defense line, it is not easy to achieve a breakthrough.
1. An annihilation style of play. When the Russian Third Army is invested at a certain point, such as Avdeyevka, it can form a local 5 to 1 or even greater strength advantage against the Ukrainian
25th Air Assault Brigade, form an encirclement, and carry out an annihilation strike. Break the southern defense line of Udonbas and form a breakthrough.
The 25th Air Brigade of the Avdeyev Kawu garrison
2. If this fails, we can still use artillery fire to push back the Ukrainian army's defense line. It has turned into a war of attrition, and the investment of the Russian Third Army will have limited impact!
4. Epilogue
The Russian Third Army has 16,500 troops, which is still small in number. If the troops are increased by 50,000, or even 100,000, and all are fully staffed, the situation can immediately change!
However, according to expert analysis, the Russian Wagner mercenaries have been recruiting and expanding their ranks, and the Russian army has no worries about strength. The impact of the Russian Third Army's investment may be seen soon!
