Australia maintains a very close relationship with the United States, especially after Morrison became the Prime Minister of Australia. The relationship between the United States and Australia has become even closer. It seems that pleasing the United States has become Australia's strategic purpose. Not only in September last year, the so-called AUKUS alliance was formed with the United Kingdom and the United States, but also frequently sent anti-submarine aircraft to break into the South China Sea , which has become a normal behavior. It is obviously a provocative behavior and is not popular. Especially when taking hostile actions, it is normal to be intercepted. In May of this year, a P8 anti-submarine aircraft broke into the South China Sea and was intercepted by J-16 and subjected to dry bombing. The hospitality did not allow the Australian military planes to run rampant. According to Australia's mentality, this is Australia's loss. Australia was furious, and the Australian Department of Defense issued a statement complaining that the J-16's actions were very "unprofessional" and may pose a relatively large threat to the flight safety of Australian military aircraft.
The J-16 can continue to do this in the future
Now that the Australian government has changed, the new Australian Defense Minister Marles still maintains a pro-American style, saying: "We have the courage to express our national interests. We have been doing this and will continue to do so. "Do." This is a quite provocative statement, indicating that Australia actively works for the United States and is completely sincere in serving the United States. It is trying to confront China and frame it: China poses a threat to Australia and the "rules-based global order." a direct threat.
Australian experts published a special article to discuss the corresponding issues
This tough statement will not bring any benefits to Australia, nor is it the mentality of all Australians. It can only be said to be the perception of some people, and others also have their own ideas. In fact, the interception of the J-16 left a deep impression on the Australian side and gave them a lot of insights. Therefore, after being taught a lesson by the J-16, some new voices came out in Australia. One of them: Hugh White, Australian National Emeritus Professor of Strategic Studies at the University's Center for Strategic and Defense Studies. He has long been engaged in defense and intelligence analysis. He served as Deputy Minister of Strategy and Intelligence of the Australian Department of Defense and served as the first director of the Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI). He can definitely be called: an Australian military expert. He published a special article. In the article "Australia in the Line of Fire of the U.S.-China Maritime Competition," he asked Australian military aircraft to stay away from the Chinese coast and no longer continue to conduct close reconnaissance in the South China Sea.
Hugh White
This Australian defense expert bluntly stated in a related article: Don’t go to the South China Sea to provoke China. He believes that Australia is now on the line of fire of the US-China maritime competition, a pawn in the role, from an Australian perspective. If flying in the South China Sea triggers a fierce confrontation, it will only cause big trouble for itself. If an accident occurs and the plane crashes or is shot down, then it will face a very difficult choice. Either give up the operation, or take more drastic action and send fighter planes to escort.
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The former is not only embarrassing, but also an event with major strategic consequences. The latter will be a "difficult, expensive and dangerous" decision. Not only does it require the investment of a lot of resources to send fighter jets and escorts, it is also more likely to lead to war or even escalate to a full-scale war. This is a consequence that Australia cannot bear.
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If the conflict occurs, it will pose a direct challenge to the United States. Not supporting Australia will weaken the image of the United States and damage the credibility of its allies, which is quite embarrassing; supporting it is tantamount to choosing a world war . The President of the United States will have to think twice before he acts. Perhaps the consequence is to wait and see. The United States has refused to support its teammates more than once. It has done many things to cheat its friends. It is not a surprise to cheat Australia again. Australia will face trouble on its own and will be in a desperate situation. .
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The current situation proves that Australia's domestic attitude towards China has changed. Faced with a complicated situation, Australians are also thinking, what are the benefits of continuing? Australia's maritime patrol operations in the South China Sea have no direct significance to its own security. They are just to please the United States. Their importance is far less than that, and they have to risk war. Perhaps the best way is to avoid being caught between China and the United States, and to ask the Australian military not to provoke the United States. That is not Australia's purpose. Perhaps Australia should learn to adapt to changes and choose the exit option at the right time. It is not difficult to understand why Australia cannot bet on the United States to win the future, but will the current Australian government be willing?
If Australia is unwilling to change its policies in a timely manner, it will have to bear the consequences on its own, which may be an outcome that it cannot regret.
