In recent times, American politicians and media have continued to hype the Taiwan Strait issue, and even continued to exaggerate that the People's Liberation Army is about to launch a unified national action. This routine is obviously the same as the pattern before the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict. The United States clearly wants to inflame the Taiwan Strait issue and thereby worsen the international image of mainland China. In the media atmosphere in the United States and the West, it is obvious that the People's Liberation Army is going to launch a unified national action. For example, they claim that Beijing has sent various types of military aircraft more intensively into the Taiwan Air Defense Identification Zone, and some military aircraft and ships have also circled Taiwan Island and crossed the so-called "central line of the strait."
Obviously, this so-called hype does not mention the collusion between the United States and Taiwan, let alone the actions of the United States and Taiwan to provoke the mainland's bottom line. Isn't this the prelude to the Ukraine model? However, Army General Mark Milley, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, seems to have poured cold water on American politicians and the media. His views directly slap these politicians and media in the face. Gen. Mark Milley, asked in an interview with BBC BBC if he thought China would launch an effort to unify Taiwan, said a Chinese attack on Taiwan was not imminent but that the United States was watching the situation "very closely." He also said that it was clear that China was developing the ability to attack Taiwan at some point, but the decision to attack Taiwan would be a political choice.
This is from the BBC report on Sunday (July 3), General Milley said: "In terms of capabilities, I think China is clearly developing a capability. Whether they will attack, it is a political choice, it is a Policy choice. That will be based on how China evaluates the costs, risks and benefits at that time. "General Milley continued: "There are no imminent signs or warnings, but I reiterate that we are watching the situation very, very closely." Mark Milley said. ’s view is not that China is about to launch a unified national action as described by some radical American politicians and military personnel. Instead, it believes that China will not take imminent military measures for the time being.
In fact, General Mi Li, as one of the top leaders of the US military, obviously has a reasonable assessment of the overall military situation between China and the United States. If the remarks of radical figures in the U.S. military are followed, the United States is very likely to actually provoke a cross-strait conflict. But once such a result occurs, in General Milley's view, the People's Liberation Army is fully capable of controlling the entire surrounding situation, including possible future interference by the US military. After all, the People's Liberation Army has made great progress in its naval and air forces in recent years, and has formed a geographical advantage over local areas. In other words, the People's Liberation Army has the ability to deny the US military area.
At the same time, General Milley also saw the problems of the United States itself, that is, the logistics supplies of the United States' labor expedition could not be guaranteed at all. Moreover, the United States has not made sufficient preparations in the Western Pacific region. The US military will simply not be able to form a superiority effect on the People's Liberation Army in the short term, which will put the United States into great passivity. Moreover, China is also capable of completely eradicating the military forces deployed by the US military around the Western Pacific, which will make it more difficult for the US military to win in the Western Pacific. Once the U.S. military makes operational mistakes or is eager to provoke cross-strait conflicts, the United States may indeed face both tactical and strategic failures.
Sun Tzu's Art of War says: "Only by knowing yourself and the enemy can you fight a hundred battles without danger." But the problem is that the United States neither "knows itself" nor "knows the enemy", so how can it defeat China? The United States has not even done its minimum logistics and preparations. How can it deal with a military conflict far away on the west coast of the Pacific? The United States prepared for the Gulf War for six months and used a large amount of sea and air transportation forces, but the United States only targeted a moderately powerful opponent. If the United States were to face an opponent that was almost as powerful as itself, I am afraid that the United States would not have strategic material preparations for more than two or three years, and it would not be sure of victory.
For General Mark Milley, who studies strategy, he should be a high-level military general who understands the United States relatively well, otherwise he would not have said these relatively pertinent words. However, General Milley still used a threatening tone to highlight the strong control ability of the United States. After all, the United States cannot lose its face and still clamor for the United States to maintain relations with Taiwan. However, this is different from what US President Biden said during his visit to Japan in May this year. Biden said that China's sending military planes to Taiwan to harass was "playing with threats" and vowed that if China attempts to attack Taiwan, the United States will Taiwan will be defended by force.
Although Biden himself and the White House have clarified that the US policy towards Taiwan has not changed, China has accused the United States of violating its commitments on the Taiwan issue and interfering in China's internal affairs. In fact, it now seems that the United States still wants to cause trouble around China. It is best to plunge China into a war, so as to interrupt China's economic development. But the problem is that the United States does not want to be drawn into it. After all, the domestic problems in the United States are extremely serious, and the United States does not want to increase its risk of war. However, when it comes to the Taiwan Strait issue, the United States cannot guarantee Taiwan's acceptance and continuous support like Ukraine. This makes the United States' instigation on the Taiwan Strait issue become repetitive.
But to sum up, the United States is simply not ready to provoke a war in the Taiwan Strait and a showdown with China. In the eyes of American politicians and some radical military personnel, they feel that the U.S. operating model in Ukraine is successful, so they are eager to To be replicated in the Taiwan Strait area. However, during the operation process, it seems that the script in the Taiwan Strait region is not as smooth as that in Ukraine. This leads to a question: Is the United States advancing or retreating? Similarly, troubled by institutional factors, General Mark Milley, the top U.S. military official, obviously does not want to continue to push the Taiwan Strait issue. After all, once the fuse is lit, the United States is unprepared. Only then might he be the ultimate loser, and Admiral Milley should be most worried about this. (The pictures in this article come from the Internet)
