According to news circulating on the Internet, Ukrainian troops used the US-made "Haimas" precision-guided rocket launcher to attack the Russian mainland Belgorod region on July 3, causing many local casualties and damage to dozens of buildings. . Later, local officials in Russia confirmed that they were attacked in the early morning of July 3, and local people also heard multiple explosions. A month ago, when Ukraine sought support from the United States for the "Haimas" rocket launcher , the Ukrainian government publicly stated that it would not use it to attack the Russian mainland. Therefore, the above news has also attracted great attention internationally. But the matter turned around again in the evening. According to further information from the Russian government reported by domestic media, the attack was caused by a "Dot-U" ballistic missile launched by Ukraine. As a result, the focus of outside attention has once again turned to this classic Soviet weapon that has been frequently used since special military operations.
Relevant news reported by domestic media
On February 25, 2022, the day after the start of Russia’s special military operation, the Ukrainian army’s missile force launched two “Dot-U” missiles, which accurately hit the rice missile in Rostov Oblast, Russia. At Lerovo Air Base, a Russian Su-30SM fighter jet was destroyed and multiple fighters were damaged. On the 26th, the Ukrainian army fired at least four "Dot-U" missiles at the oil storage warehouse in the Donetsk area, but all were intercepted by Russian anti-missile forces. The wreckage fell in the wilderness without causing collateral damage. On the 27th, the Ukrainian army changed its combat direction and fired at least two "Dot-U" missiles towards the Luhansk area, hitting the local oil storage tank . Tens of thousands of tons of oil were lost in the raging fire. On the 28th, the Ukrainian army, having tasted the sweetness, launched two more "Dot-U" missiles towards the Donetsk area, which were successfully intercepted by the increasingly vigilant Russian army using the S-300V anti-missile system.
The Russian Su-30SM that was destroyed by the "Dot-U" on February 25.
From the initial stage of the formal exchange of fire between the two sides, it can be seen from the battle report of the "Dot-U" that the Ukrainian army initially used the "Dot-U". The target of U"'s attack is very clear, which is the military bases and military logistics centers of the Russian army or the East Ukrainian armed forces. However, as the probability of interception of the Ukrainian army's "Dot-U" is getting higher and higher, the number of storages is decreasing day by day. Its targets have also gradually changed. On March 4, two "Dot-U" missiles attacked the headquarters of the "Azov Battalion" and caused more than 20 casualties, which caused an uproar in public opinion at the time. In hindsight, the Ukrainian army used the "Dot-U" to attack the "Azov Battalion" because the latter had a serious conflict with the regular Ukrainian armed forces. There was even a situation where Lieutenant General Yuri Sodor, the commander of the Ukrainian Army's Eastern Tactical Group, was seriously injured at the "Azov Camp" headquarters, and the Ukrainian army finally couldn't help but teach a lesson.
The wreckage of the "Dot-U" successfully intercepted by the Russian army
htmlAt about 11 am on March 14, a "Dot-U" was attacked by the Russian S-300V anti-missile missile while attacking the central square of Donetsk. The system intercepted successfully. However, the "Dot-U" exploded incompletely when it was intercepted, and the remaining cluster bomb fell directly into the city, killing 23 local civilians and injuring 35 others, most of whom were women and children. This attack also officially kicked off the Ukrainian army's use of "Dot-U" to attack civilian targets. On March 23, the Ukrainian army fired multiple "Dot-U" missiles at the Port of Berdyansk controlled by the Russian army. At least one of them broke through the Russian army's interception and hit the Russian Navy's "Sara" which was unloading ammunition at the time. "Tov" tank landing ship, which exploded and sank shortly afterwards.
A street affected by the "Dot-U" cluster bomb
The most controversial scene occurred on April 8, when a ballistic missile hit the Kramatorsk train station in Ukraine, killing 50 people , more than 100 people were injured. After the incident, Russia and Ukraine argued for many days about the launcher of the missile , but in the end there was no definite result. Judging from various signs, the initiator of this tragedy should be the Ukrainian missile force, because the missile debris at the scene was obviously left after the explosion of the "Dot-U", and although the Russian army also equipped a certain number of "Dot-U" in the early years ", but has long since retired.Ukraine's 19th Missile Brigade is actually the armed force with the largest number of "Dot-U" equipment and the most experience in using it in the world.
Ukrainian 19th Missile Brigade
In 1975, the "Dot" short-range ballistic missile began to enter service with the Soviet army. The design goal was to replace the previous generation of "Moon" missiles with limited performance. Eventually, the Soviet Ministry of Defense assigned the new missile system the designation 9K79. The 9Ya234 missile it uses has a total weight of 2 tons, a maximum warhead weight of 480 kilograms, and a circular probability error of 150 meters. In 1986, the Soviet Army developed the famous improved "Dot-U" based on the "Polka Dot", with a range increased to 120 kilometers and a circular probability error of 95 meters. Since the "polka dot" series has fewer export restrictions, it has been equipped in many countries in Eastern Europe and the Middle East since the early 1980s. After the disintegration of the Soviet Union, Russia and Ukraine each received a certain number of "dots" from the former Soviet troops stationed in their respective regions.
The unexploded "Dot-U" warhead after being intercepted
In 1996, the Russian army announced that in view of the fact that the performance of the "Dot" series had fallen behind, it had officially started the decommissioning process. However, due to the next-generation " Iskander-" scheduled to take over The development of "M" did not go smoothly, so "Dot-U" was forced to continue serving. In the Second Chechen War in 1999, the Russian army used multiple "Dot-U" missiles to attack fixed military strongholds of the Chechen armed forces, with remarkable results. During the 2008 Russo-Georgian War, at least 15 sets of "Dot-U" were deployed to the Russian front line, but there was no confirmed launch record.
"Iskander-M" was equipped later than expected
After the Russian army intervened in the Syrian war in 2015, a considerable number of "Dot-U" were transferred to the Syrian government forces, which in April and June 2016 , launched multiple "Dot-U" missiles to attack opposition armed strongholds. In March 2018, the Syrian government forces launched at least one Dot-U missile into the Hatay Province of Turkey, but it did not cause any casualties. This move was interpreted as a deterrent action at the time. In July of the same year, the Syrian government forces fired at least two Dot-U missiles at Israel, all of which were intercepted by the latter, again without causing any casualties. In January 2019, the Russian Ministry of Defense announced that the replacement of short-range ballistic missiles was in the final stage. Finally, the "Dot-U" ended its 29-year service in the Russian Armed Forces in 2020, and all of them were retired from active service. .
"Dot-U" launch moment
In contrast, in the early days of the disintegration of the Soviet Union, the Ukrainian army also planned to retire the "Dot" directly. For unknown reasons, the "Dot" series eventually continued to remain in the military The Ukrainian army has received less maintenance support, so its training and actual combat levels are seriously insufficient. Just when the Ukrainian army's "Polka Dot" was gradually decommissioned and ineffective, the Crimea incident broke out in 2014, and the Ukrainian army subsequently began the process of rearmament. The "Polka Dot" also became famous because of its considerable actual combat capabilities. Be taken seriously. Starting in 2015, the Ukrainian army invested a lot of resources in repairing the existing "polka dot" series, and obtained a certain number of retired models from Eastern European countries. In July 2021, the famous Ukrainian Southern Design Bureau completed the "Polka Dot" maintenance work on Ukrainian military equipment and upgraded all of them to the "Polka Dot-U" technical standard.
The "Polka Dot-U" missile group equipped by the Ukrainian army
Since the Ukrainian army keeps the 19th Missile Brigade equipped with the "Polka Dot" highly confidential, and the production quantity of the entire "Polka Dot" series is extremely large, the outside world can only roughly It is estimated that the number of "Dot-U" launch systems equipped by the Ukrainian army is roughly 80 to 100 (including spare models), and the number of missiles is between 250 and 500. The current exchange of fire between Russia and Ukraine has exceeded 130 days, and the frequency of the Ukrainian army launching "Dot-U" is roughly 10 to 15 per week, which means that at least 180 missiles have been launched. Given that Ukraine does not have the ability to produce "Polka Dot-U", and the "Polka Dot-U" copied by third-party countries cannot be sold to Ukraine, therefore, as the war continues, the Ukrainian army launches "Polka Dot-U" The frequency will inevitably decrease.
The number of existing "dot-U" in the Ukrainian army is limited
For the Russian army, the reduction in the number of "dot-U" in the Ukrainian army is good news, but the "dot-U" will still appear even if it is successfully intercepted. Collateral damage is a difficult problem to solve. In the early morning of July 3, the Russian anti-missile force successfully intercepted three incoming "Dot-U" missiles, but it was only the unexploded part of the warhead of one "Dot-U". It caused 5 deaths, 4 injuries, and damage to more than 60 buildings to varying degrees. This is absolutely the same as the tragic scene that happened in the central square of Donetsk nearly four months ago. So, as an old weapon developed more than 40 years ago, why can the "Polka Dot-U" still pose such a big threat to the Russian army?
The wreckage of the Ukrainian army’s “Dot-U” that was recently intercepted
First and most importantly, the “Dot-U” is a ballistic missile after all. Its most distinctive flight characteristics are its high speed and trajectory. Typical parabola shape. As long as the Russian anti-missile force cannot intercept the "Dot-U" in the early ascending stage of its launch, it can only intercept it at the end of its flight. At this time, the "Dot-U" has flown very far, often only a short distance from the target. For example, when three "Dot-U" missiles were intercepted on July 3, they had already flown over the Russian mainland. Even if the missile is destroyed at this time, the remaining unexploded warhead can still cause damage after falling to the ground. In addition, in order to ensure the lethality of the "Dot-U", the Ukrainian army often carries cluster bombs targeting light armor and large-scale targets, so it causes huge damage to civilian targets.
The Russian S-300V is the backbone of the interception of the "Dot-U"
Secondly, although the combat effectiveness of the Ukrainian army's ordinary troops has gradually declined with the consumption of the war, the impact on its missile troops has been relatively small. On June 24, the Ukrainian army released a video of its missile force launching three "Dot-U" missiles in the south. You can see that the three launch vehicles are deployed at the forest border to reduce the probability of being discovered, and there are "stingers" around them. "Field anti-aircraft missiles and "Buk" medium-range anti-aircraft missiles cover. Moreover, the three "Dot-U" missiles were quickly launched in less than 10 seconds, and the launch vehicle was also moved without any stop, indicating that the Ukrainian missile force has gained combat experience after being tempered by the fire of war. promote.
Finally, in more than three months of fighting, the Russian army also accumulated a lot of successful experience in intercepting "Dot-U". The Russian Ministry of Defense stated on June 28 that its anti-missile forces successfully intercepted 7 "Dot-U" missiles launched from three directions during that day's battle, setting a record for intercepting "Dot-U" missiles in a single day. "The highest record. However, as a powerful weapon, ballistic missiles are naturally very destructive. The Houthi armed forces in Yemen launched a "Dot-U" missile that hit the Safire base in Saudi Arabia in September 2015, causing casualties of nearly 100 coalition officers and soldiers. In December of the same year, another "Dot-U" launched by Yemen's Houthi armed forces caused more than 150 casualties among coalition officers and soldiers. The most shocking scene occurred on January 31, 2016, when a Dot-U missile hit a Saudi military base and exploded, causing at least 200 casualties among officers and soldiers. It can be seen that even a small number or even some combatants entering an inhabited area can cause large-scale damage.
Ukrainian army’s “Polka Dot-U” launch site
For the Russian army, if it wants to fundamentally solve the threat of “Polka Dot-U”, it is expected to adopt three methods. First, advance the front westward in an all-round way. As a short-range ballistic missile, the "Dot-U" has a range of only 120 kilometers. Even after improvements and improvements by the Ukrainian army, the increase in range is very limited. Therefore, as long as the front can fully advance about 150 kilometers westward, so that the width of the area controlled by the Russian army exceeds the maximum range of the "Dot-U", the Russian mainland will no longer be threatened by the "Dot-U". However, it is more difficult to achieve this in the north, especially in the direction of Kharkov where the Ukrainian army is heavily stationed. There seems to be no sign of the Russian army operating in this area recently.
The short range is the biggest shortcoming of the "Dot-U"
Second, expand the scale of the S-500 anti-missile system.At present, the main force of the Russian anti-missile force is the S-300V4, which is improved on the basis of the S-300V equipment left behind by the Soviet Union. Today, its interception effectiveness is relatively limited. In contrast, the new generation S-500 anti-missile system, which the Russian military has spent nearly 20 years developing, has a higher interception height, a longer range, and a faster speed. It is an ideal equipment for countering the "Dot-U". However, unlike the S-400 air defense system introduced by many countries, the S-500 is not only technically complex, but also subject to financial difficulties on the Russian side. The final stage of improvement has been slow, and it has only initially entered service. Not only is its scale limited, but its actual performance is also limited. It has not been perfected and cannot take on the important task of anti-missile for the time being.
The Russian S-500 has been put into service but the quantity is insufficient.
Thirdly, we are waiting for the Ukrainian army’s “Dot-U” to be used up. This is the stupidest but also the most effective method. After all, the "Dot-U" equipped by the Ukrainian army will lose one shot every time it is used. Although the Russian S-300V series intercepts "Dot-U" occasionally "fish slips through the net", in general, the probability of success in intercepting Iraq " Scud " is higher than that of the US military "Patriot" series. much higher. In addition, after the Russian army recently entered the city of Lischichansk, the Ukrainian army fired a "Dot-U" at the local city hall building. However, the Russian army did not send troops to the attacked building at that time, so there were no casualties. Similar Such an attack also wastes the few "Dot-U" in vain.
S-300V is still the main equipment for intercepting "Dot-U"
At this stage of the war, both Russia and Ukraine have invested massive resources in the battlefield, and the final outcome will depend on the two countries, two nations, and even The whole world is of vital importance. Under this circumstance, the "Dot-U" ballistic missile equipped by the Ukrainian army, as a strategic equipment, is Ukraine's remaining actual combat force. Once the war is in an unfavorable situation, the "Dot-U" will be thrown out In order to maintain the country's confidence in the Ukrainian army, it seems to be an inevitable choice out of desperation. Of course, this also means that as the situation develops, more and more missiles will fly to Russia in the near future, which will also be a severe test for the Russian anti-missile forces.
