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Former U.S. Secretary of State Kissinger said that if the Russia-Ukraine conflict ends with the Russian army controlling Donbass , then Russia will be the de facto victor. "In this case, NATO will play the role of The role will not be as decisive as previously thought."
In an interview with the "Spectator" reporter, Kissinger made a "bold" prediction about the outcome of the Russia-Ukraine conflict. There is a high probability that this conflict will unfold in three versions. One of the endings.
In the first version, Russia will eventually control most of the Donbass and major industrial and agricultural cities, as well as some land near the Black Sea . Ukraine will face the tragedy of disintegration. Judging from the current development of the situation in Russia and Ukraine, the probability of this happening is increasing.
First, the Russian army has always had an absolute advantage on the Donbas battlefield, and the Ukrainian army was divided into different encirclements and struggled to maintain it. Under the attack of the Russian long-range artillery, the Ukrainian army had no power to fight back. Although Western countries have promised to provide long-range artillery systems to Ukraine, they have already been delivered to Ukraine. But the problem is that these heavy weapons systems are difficult to send to the front lines in Donbass. A more serious problem is that the Ukrainian army is seriously short of soldiers and supplies on the front line. For this reason, there was even a farce in which Ukrainian soldiers exchanged high-precision weapons for canned goods. Near the town of Shastye in Luhansk Region, Ukraine, two Ukrainian soldiers had a "secret meeting" with the Russian army late at night, exchanging weapons worth nearly $300,000 with the Russian soldiers for 10 boxes of canned food. .
Secondly, the Russian army has changed its tactics and strives to shorten the war period. Russian President Putin has announced that the goals of Russia's special military operations in Ukraine will not change, but there may be changes at the tactical level. The current change is that the Russian army has taken the initiative to withdraw its troops from the controlled Snake Island . It is more likely that it is to concentrate its forces to capture the Donbas region in a short period of time. Under the siege and interception of Western countries, a long-term war of attrition will only become more detrimental to Russia. Therefore, Moscow has gradually lost patience and may adopt more radical methods, such as taking the initiative to attack the Ukrainian defenders in Donbas, in an effort to solve the Donbas issue in the short term.
Third, Western countries do not dare to challenge Russia head-on and are timid. The essence of Western countries' participation in the Russia-Ukraine conflict is to seize their own interests. To put it bluntly, they are settling scores and treating this conflict as a business. Therefore, they did not dare to go head-on with Russia. The direct result was that the weak Ukrainian army was suppressed by the Russian army, and there was no possibility of turning defeat into victory.
In this context, it will only be a matter of time before Russia wins the war. Therefore, Kissinger would make similar judgments.
The second version is that Western countries use Crimea to put pressure on Russia and ask Putin to make concessions. Judging from the current situation, Western countries do not seem to have any intention of doing so. Instead, they have chosen to continue to support Ukraine and require Kiev to confront Moscow on the Ukrainian battlefield. If they focus on Crimea, they will inevitably trigger a stronger counterattack from Russia. Western countries have been working hard to control the conflict within Ukraine. They are not interested in Crimea, which has actually separated from Ukraine, and have no opportunity to take advantage of it. Therefore, the possibility is not high.
Regarding the third version, that is for Russia and Ukraine to return to the status quo before February 24. This is of course extremely beneficial to Ukraine, but Russia is working in vain. Therefore, the prerequisite for this outcome can only be that the Ukrainian army achieves a decisive victory on the battlefield. But judging from the current situation, this possibility is almost non-existent, so the third version is also impossible to happen.
All in all, as to how the Russia-Ukraine conflict will end, the most critical issue is still on the battlefield. If we can't win on the battlefield, it's useless to say anything.
