Recently, after a fierce battle, the Russian Chechen troops and the Luhansk militia troops reached the city hall of Lisichansk , the last big city in Luhansk . The Ukrainian troops blew up the city hall while escaping. , but luckily they didn’t give the Russian army a chance to plant their flag on the city hall. But in any case, as the administrative center was controlled by Russia, the Ukrainian army defending Lischichansk was either scattered in pieces, or was divided into several small pieces in the city and became lambs to be slaughtered. At the same time, this also means that after 129 days of fighting, the entire territory of Luhansk has been captured.
Regarding the capture of the city of Lisichansk by the Russian army, we can only say that we did not expect it. After all, when the Ukrainian army counterattacked in Severodonetsk in early June, the confidence of the Ukrainian army was unprecedentedly expanded. I helped the military master analyze it and said that the terrain in Lischichansk is relatively high. From Lischichansk to attack Severonetsk, it was condescending and the decision was made at one go. Later, the Ukrainian army sent troops from Lischichansk to Northern Donetsk. The Ukrainian counterattack failed, but the Ukrainian army was still very confident. It believed that Lisichansk could defend Lisichansk for a long time due to its terrain. The slogans shouted by the Ukrainian army at that time were not enough to even change Lisichansk to Mariupol . Directly ask Lisichansk to become Stalingrad .
As a result, Lisichansk was completely lost after the Russian army broke through the Ukrainian army's defense line in Zelet on June 15. It lasted for half a month, let alone Stalingrad. You must know that Mali Ubol still defended the city for more than 40 days, and Severodonetsk fought with the Russian army in a decent manner for about 20 days. When they arrived in Lischichansk, they fought head to tail for more than ten days. The Ukrainian army was so What happened?
We think that, both from the perspective of the defense situation in Lischichansk and the current state of the Ukrainian army, it will be good to be able to defend Lischichansk for more than ten days. Don’t ask for anything else. : Let’s talk first. The defense situation of Lisichansk. The defense of Lisichansk was very unstable from the beginning. Especially after the Russian army captured Popasnaya, the area of Lisichansk has actually become an east-facing The protrusion, to the north is the north bank of the Severodonetsk River controlled by the Russian army, to the south is Popasnaya controlled by the Russian army, and Severodonetsk and Lischichansk are just at the bottom of the pocket. In this case, as long as the Russian army penetrates the bag body and cuts off the Ukrainian army along the half of the bag, no matter how many people there are in Severodonetsk and Lisichansk, the Ukrainian army will basically become It ends up as dumpling stuffing. In early June, the Ukrainian army launched a counterattack in Severodonetsk, which was highly praised. In fact, from a general perspective, I have never seen such a stupid army. Not only did they not retreat, they also took the initiative to penetrate deeper into the encirclement. Drilled.
Of course, it is not without arrangements for the Ukrainian army to prevent Lischichansk from being surrounded. Artillery was deployed on the north bank of the Severodonetsk River to prevent the Russian army from crossing the river. After the Russian army broke through Popasnaya, the Ukrainian army The only thing they relied on on the southern front was the Zelet area, which was densely covered with forts and trenches. The Ukrainian army tried to use this to block the Russian army's advance. Unexpectedly, the Russian army is particularly devoid of military ethics. They don't use infantry and tanks to chew you slowly. Instead, they set up cannons and blast them. I will blow up all the fortifications and trenches you have. At the same time, the Russian army will not entangle with you, and will directly outflank you on both sides, taking your retreat in the Zeller agent area. This battle started on June 15. After five days of fighting, the goal was basically achieved. Two Russian armies captured two key villages north of Zelet and surrounded the entire Zelet task group. . The Ukrainian army inside spent five days and paid a huge price to finally get some people out.
After being lost in the Zelet area, the Russian troops took the retreat from Lischichansk. In fact, they were already unstoppable. At this time, the Ukrainian army hurriedly issued an order to withdraw from Severodonetsk. Task.The original intention was to concentrate the troops in Lisichansk before making further plans, but I did not expect that the withdrawal of the troops would not be able to stop at all: the Russian army was rushing too fast, and the two main roads running west from Lisichansk were very fast. They were all under the control of the Russian army's firepower, so retreating turned into fleeing, fleeing turned into fleeing, and organized fighting turned into stragglers. Lischichansk, which was said to be turning into Stalingrad, was completed in a confused manner. .
Judging from the status of the Ukrainian army, the current Ukrainian army has basically lost the ability to confront the Russian army on a large scale. It is very simple. The current veterans of the Ukrainian army, especially when the war first broke out, served in the army. Too many old contract soldiers were captured, injured, and killed: According to the Russian army and the militias of the two states, there are now more than 15,000 Ukrainian soldiers captured in the hands of the Russian army and the militia. According to estimates by the Russian army and the militias of the two states, the number of dead Ukrainian troops may be as high as 50,000. Based on the ratio of killed to wounded of one to three, the total losses of the Ukrainian troops are estimated to be close to 200,000. You must know that the total number of Ukrainian troops before the war was only more than 200,000, of which the battle group in the Donbass direction was only about 100,000. It is estimated that the infantry and tank troops fighting on the front line were only 60,000 to 70,000, and the current loss is 200,000. Ten thousand troops basically means that the Ukrainian army fighting on the front line has changed several times.
The most typical example is the unlucky 79th Air Assault Brigade. This brigade was beaten by the Luhansk militia from the beginning of the war. They were beaten violently on the ground, and they were pulled back to Slavyansk to add some mobilization troops. When they were pulled to Hongliman, they were beaten violently by the Russian army again. When they moved to Svyatogorsk, they were beaten violently by the Russian army again. In just a short time There were three different types of soldiers in three or four months. Now look at the fact that Ukraine has been pulling young men for at least six rounds. After that, everyone was sent to the army. The Russian army even captured 58-year-old and 56-year-old men in Lisichansk. This can be seen that Ukraine How can the army confront the Russian army? It is a blessing to be able to escape.
From the many details above, we can see that after the Ukrainian army lost Lisichansk, it was not only a major strategic and operational failure, but also reflected that the overall quality and combat effectiveness of the Ukrainian army had been greatly improved. The crotch reached an unacceptable level. Next, the Ukrainian army will of course try every means to reorganize its defense line. There is news that the Ukrainian army has re-established a defense line in Seversk, Suledar and Atmsk in an attempt to counter the incoming attack. The Russian army in Slavyansk blocked it; and the real defensive core of the Ukrainian army was the defensive arc in Slavyansk and Kramatorsk, extending south to Constantinlovka on the Don River. . However, based on the current desperate morale of the Ukrainian army, and the fact that most of the core soldiers are dead and relying solely on garbage mobilization troops to fill the line, it is estimated that the subsequent Russian attack will be much smoother than the previous stage. With the continuous offensive of the Russian army, it is estimated that there will be more and more similar collapses of the Ukrainian army. By that time, the end of Ukraine will come.
