In this international review, Uncle Mu will analyze the possibility of Belarus being dragged into the war.
When Belarusian President Lukashenko met with Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov on June 30, he suggested that Russia be ready to use nuclear weapons .
This has become the focus of international media attention.
The Russia-Ukraine war has been going on for more than 150 days. As an ally of Russia, Belarus has not taken any military actions, but it has allowed Russia to use nuclear weapons ? What is the logic?
This has made many international analysts very interested, and they are all speculating on what Lukashenko is thinking.
Just a few days ago, Uncle Mu noticed two pieces of news involving Belarus, which are worth talking about. As for whether it means that the Russian army is ready to take action? That is a matter of benevolence and wisdom.
Let’s talk about the first thing first -
Also at the end of June, Ukrainian revealed a news. The Ukrainian Northern Military Command issued a statement on Facebook. It is said that at around 5 a.m. that day, the Russian army launched 20 rockets from Belarusian territory and air, targeting the village of Desna in the northern region of Chernihiv. This small village, with a pre-war population of approximately 7,500 people, is located 70 kilometers north of Kiev .
The Ukrainian intelligence service also stated that after taking off from the Russian Air Force base, six Russian bombers launched 12 cruise missiles from the town of Petricho in southern Belarus, hitting targets in northern Kiev and Sumy.
In the view of Ukrainian intelligence authorities, this action by the Russian army is "directly related to the Kremlin 's efforts to draw Belarus into the Ukrainian war as a common belligerent."
Let’s talk about the second thing -
Just a few days before meeting Lavrov, Lukashenko came to Russia to meet Putin. When the two met in St. Petersburg , Lukashenko was worried about the West. Beyond words.
He emphasized two points to Putin: First, he supported the struggle between Russia and Lithuania over the enclave Kaliningrad . Lukashenko accused Lithuania of declaring war on Russia; secondly, he was worried that the Russian fighter jets he purchased would not be able to protect the country, so he hoped that Putin could modify the fighter jets so that they could project nuclear weapons to defend Belarusian territory.
Putin is of course very satisfied with Lukashenko's attitude. He not only continues to emphasize the need to safeguard Russia's interests with the West in the crisis in the Kaliningrad enclave, but also supports the transformation of Russian fighter planes so that they can carry nuclear weapons.
He even claimed that he would deploy Russia's Iskander missile to Belarus, and the deployment would be completed in July. This missile can also carry the nuclear warhead . What do these two things about
mean?
Uncle Mu believes that Belarus can indeed consider helping Russia, but it needs a good reason.
Russia seems to be a little impatient for Lukashenko's delay in taking action. For example, the first thing Ukraine revealed was a sign. The second thing also shows that Russia has given Belarus a reassurance.
The biggest reason why Lukashenko does not want to end easily is that the direct relationship between this matter and his country is indescribable.
Regardless of whether Russia obtains Donbass , it will not bring direct benefits to Belarus. Even if Russia becomes stronger after the war, the pressure on Belarus may be greater.
But the logic why Lukashenko considers helping Russia is also very simple, that is, once Russia is defeated, especially by Ukraine, not only will Russia's internal situation be at risk, but it will also affect his rule in Belarus.
Therefore, he needs to find an opportunity, that is, a balance point before he can take action.
In other words, if the pressure on Russia from the West and Ukraine is too great, and Russia's risks increase significantly, Belarus can serve as a helper to reduce Russia's harm, and can even serve as a mediating force to ensure that Belarus's interests are not affected by the Russia-Ukraine war. Too much impact.
At present, Russia does not seem to have encountered this risk, and Lukashenko may wait.
Therefore, if Belarus wanted to express support for Russia even if Belarus did not end, Lukashenko said some cruel words, such as Russia should prepare nuclear weapons.
Of course the Russians understand what he means. Just smile and respond. Who dares to use it for real?
The two sides are just trying to warm each other up.
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