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The Russo-Ukrainian war lasted for four months, and the stalemate allowed both sides to free up their hands to carry out propaganda that is beneficial to themselves.
It’s even better when both parties create words while fighting.
Before, the defenders of the Assyrian Steel Plant in Mariupol could no longer hold on. Ukraine senior officials ordered the defenders to lay down their weapons and surrender, conserve their strength, and then rescue the defenders by exchanging prisoners.
At the time, Ukraine called this major tactical failure a "transfer of control." It means that I can leave this place to your management, but I can also take it back at any time.
Russia is not stupid, and is also very good at publicity in this area.
The first phase of Kiev completely failed, but it insists that the strategic goals of this phase have been achieved.
Then it doesn’t matter what you think of Russia’s “strategic goals”.
Now when Russia and Ukraine are fighting in a stalemate in the eastern Wudong area, Snake Island across the sea has undergone dramatic changes: the Russian troops who have worked hard to occupy it for 4 months have withdrawn.
The Russian military announced on June 30 that it had decided to withdraw from Snake Island off the southwestern coast of Ukraine as a "gesture of goodwill" to show that Moscow was not obstructing the United Nations 's efforts to open a humanitarian corridor and allow Ukraine to ship food.
Russia also issued a statement specifically, emphasizing that the reason why the Russian military did this was to use such practical actions to express its stance to other countries in the world and show that Russia has no malicious intentions towards the world and that Russia has no intention of causing a world food crisis. , and has no motive to use the food crisis to create crises in other areas.
This statement is a bit touching, because Russia expresses its infinite goodwill towards the Ukrainian people and its infinite concern for the food security of people around the world.
But Ukraine was not moved, did not buy it and did not think so.
Ukraine said it had driven out Russian troops after nighttime artillery fire and missile attacks.
Yermak, director of the Ukrainian President's Office, said, "There are no longer Russian troops on Snake Island. Our armed forces have completed a great job."
Russia said that I evacuated on my own initiative and expressed a "goodwill."
But Ukraine said, pull it down. You retreated simply because we beat you until you couldn't stand it anymore. You were beaten out.
Snake Island was quickly strategically targeted by Russia as soon as the war started, which shows that the island is very important.
Snake Island is located in the Danube Delta near the Black Sea , about 32 kilometers south of the Ukrainian coast. The island is X-shaped, 662 meters long, 440 meters wide, and has a land area of 0.17 square kilometers. The highest point is 41 meters above sea level.
Russian media once reported that one of the main ways for the West to transport weapons to Ukraine is through land and sea transportation through Romania . For the Russian army, controlling Snake Island can cut off this channel.
Strategically located, Snake Island is the air defense outpost in the Crimea region. Whoever controls Snake Island can control the water surface in southern Ukraine and, to a certain extent, the air situation in southern Ukraine.
Snake Island's economic status is also very important. Controlling this island will prevent Ukraine from exporting food from Odessa, a large southern port. Moreover, the Black Sea area where Snake Island is located is also rich in oil and natural gas resources.
It stands to reason that the Russian army must hold on even if it pays a heavy price, but it cannot.
At the beginning, the Russian army was still very confident.
There is air superiority in the sky, there are heavy tanks cannons on the ground, and there is the Black Sea Fleet deterrence in the sea. How can a small Snake Island not be defended?
The Russian army's attack on Ukraine was prepared to end in an instant. I didn't expect Ozawa to be so brave and tenacious. I didn't expect the Ukrainian army to be so brave and tenacious. I didn't expect US imperialism and NATO to send all kinds of defenses to Ukraine so barbarically. Offensive weapons.
I personally feel that there are signs that the Russian army will withdraw from Snake Island.
The landmark event was the sinking of the flagship "Moscow" of the Black Sea Fleet. Subsequently, several warships were sunk one after another, and the Black Sea Fleet almost lost its combat capability. But at that time, the Russian army captured Snake Island, with the "Moscow" as the main force and the Black Sea Fleet as the main force.
Subsequently, several Russian supply ships and landing ship were sunk under the attack and guidance of Ukrainian drones.
Snake Island is located within the coverage of land artillery fire. The Russian military is currently unable to completely control the sea and cannot control the sea and airspace around Snake Island through the navy. Ukraine has deployed relatively powerful anti-ship missiles inland.
In order to maintain the occupation of Snake Island, the Russian army could only take risks to transport weapons, equipment and personnel again and again, and could only be passively beaten and bloodletted.
Without the support of the navy's sea control and air control, Snake Island would be too useless, and it would be better to retreat in time.
The supply ships and landing ships have become "submarines". Without supplies, how can the island's defenders defend themselves?
Snake Island is flat and lacks cover, making it easy to attack and difficult to defend. If the difficulties of guarding the place outweighed the benefits of controlling the northwest Black Sea, then there would be no point in garrisoning the island.
What else could this be but a "living target"?
In one sentence: It is very difficult for the Russian army to occupy Snake Island and hold it.
As the US imperialism and NATO allies have greatly increased their military equipment assistance to the Ukrainian army, various precision-guided weapons have been moved to the battlefield by the Ukrainian army. Snake Island has become a "living target". It can only defend but cannot take the initiative to attack. Because there is no such condition.
If nothing unexpected happens, if we keep defending like this, sooner or later the Russian army on Snake Island will be gradually wiped out by the Ukrainian army due to supply and other problems.
Instead of just waiting for death, it is better to evacuate early to avoid greater losses.
Insufficient supplies and minimizing casualties, thereby avoiding precise attacks by the Ukrainian army, are the biggest motivations for the Russian army to withdraw.
was forced to spit out the fat in his mouth, which was a helpless move.
However, the Russian military vehicles evacuated, and Ukraine did not immediately land on the island, nor has it established a "forward position".
As far as the Russian army is concerned, Ukraine has no navy anyway, and Ukraine does not have the strength to regain Snake Island and maintain its garrison. The Russian army can wait until necessary and move forward to occupy it again.
Now Russia is evacuating Snake Island on the pretext of alleviating the food crisis. It has obviously taken a moral high ground. It depends on whether the Ukrainian army can go to the island and whether it can defend it. If there is any food problem in the future, the responsibility lies entirely with Ukraine.
Moreover, the president of EU went to Michel and even went to Odessa to resolve this matter. Ukraine must give face to the EU regarding Snake Island.
Snake Island is a bit useless for both Russia and Ukraine.
If the Russian army continues to occupy Snake Island, the Ukrainian army can continue to train with missiles and artillery.
If the Russian army withdraws and the Ukrainian army comes, it is unclear whether it will become a target of the Russian army.
Snake Island went from being a favorite to being disliked by both countries. The war was so unexpected.
Some experts say that controlling Snake Island is equivalent to controlling the northwest coast of the Black Sea and Odessa, the largest port in the Black Sea. The relevant routes are an important part of the world's food supply chain.
So is the world’s food problem caused by the Russian army’s occupation of Snake Island and blockade of waterways, which prevented the export of a large amount of Ukrainian food?
The world food crisis may have this reason, but it is not an important reason.
Russian military experts commented, "We all understand that 5 million tons of grain cannot influence the weather of the 80 million tons world grain market."
It's just an excuse.
The surrender of the Ukrainian army is called "transfer of control", and the Russian army's unwillingness to be a "living target" is called "goodwill withdrawal".
is actually a cover-up. Who dares to tell the world and the people of this country that I really cannot win this battle.
You might have known that Putin stepped down directly and Ozawa became a "historical sinner."
On June 29, Tsinghua University Professor Yan Xuetong said at a forum that no expert can predict the final direction of the Russia-Ukraine war. Because everything the experts predict is wrong.
So how long will the Russia-Ukraine war last?
Yan Xuetong believes that the two sides of the war do not know how long the war will last, and the observers have no idea. Just like those who are fighting don’t know how long the fight will last. If you are watching the fight from the side, how can you know how long the fight will last?
He also left an opening in his speech: For thousands of years in human history, the phenomenon of "the weak defeating the strong" has often occurred. If you know from the beginning that the strong cannot win, the strong will not fight, but no one Can know in advance.
Since we don’t know when the Russia-Ukraine war will end, then this war will turn from a blitzkrieg of to a protracted war of . It depends on who can persist to the end.
