Today, let’s talk about the new focus on the battlefield of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, Lischichansk. This city is across the river from Severodonetsk. After Severodonetsk was completely occupied by the Russian army two days ago, Lischichansk became the last city controlled by t

2024/04/2409:57:33 military 1121

Today we talk about the new focus on the battlefield of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, Lischichansk. This city is across the river from Severodonetsk. After Severodonetsk was completely occupied by the Russian army two days ago, Lischichansk became the last city controlled by the Ukrainian army in the Lugansk region.

Currently, there are approximately 10,000 to 12,000 Ukrainian troops in Lischichansk, including mercenaries, nationalist battalions and other irregular troops. In early June, Zelenskiy also went to Lischichansk for inspection. At that time, the Ukrainian army's operational intention was that Lischichansk would provide various support to Severodonetsk on the north bank of the river, delaying the consumption of Russian troops. But the battlefield situation now has undergone major changes from 20 days ago.

First, Severodonetsk on the north bank has been lost. After the Russian army consolidates this area, it will soon be able to deploy long-range artillery fire to cover and suppress various positions in the entire depth of Lisichansk, and can carry out frontal attacks.

Secondly, the Russian troops on the east and west sides south of Lisichansk are attacking each other and are close to encirclement. The latest news is that the Russian army captured several important villages in the south of Lischichansk yesterday, and the Ukrainian army's only logistics supply line has been blocked by the Russian army's close firepower.

The third change is that the morale of the Ukrainian troops on the front line is currently low. Some of the defenders in Severodonetsk withdrew, but they had completely lost their combat effectiveness and their morale was low. Elsewhere, in the "Gorskoye Encirclement", about 2,000 Ukrainian troops were completely surrounded and ran out of ammunition and food. Groups of Ukrainian soldiers frequently surrendered.

There are only two choices before the Ukrainian commander.

Either continue to defend, or retreat immediately. There is not much time left for the Ukrainian commander to make decisions. With the current attack posture of the Russian army, it will take less than a few days to completely close the southward channel of Lisichansk. If the Ukrainian army wants to leave at that time, it will have to carry out a breakout. Let's talk about

first. The most it can end is becoming the second Mariupol . The number of defenders is also more than 10,000, but under the indiscriminate bombardment of the Russian army, there is still a lack of strong fortresses like the Azov Steel Plant. They may not be able to hold on for long, and in the end they will have to be like the defenders of the steel plant. Just surrender your gun like that.

If we retreat, although we will be intercepted by long-range firepower and hit by aviation firepower of the Russian army, and we will definitely not be able to take away the heavy equipment, we will be able to evacuate most of the effective forces at least. Then go to the rear to rest and reorganize, and then strengthen core positions such as and Slavyansk . But the disadvantages of retreat are also there. Slavyansk, the last core position of the Ukrainian army in the Donbass area, is completely exposed to attacks from all directions by the Russian army. Moreover, the Ukrainian army retreated without a fight, which severely damaged internal morale and made it difficult for the international community to explain itself.

In fact, the current dilemma of the Ukrainian army is inevitable. Before the war, the most powerful organized troops of the Ukrainian army concentrated in the Donbas region numbered more than 100,000 people. After the war, it is estimated that less than half of the troops in the entire Donbas region are left, and there is not much equipment and ammunition left. Given the strength and equipment level of the Ukrainian army, the probability of winning a direct confrontation with the Russian army is extremely slim. The Russian army's steady and steady tactics did not give the Ukrainian army a chance to win by surprise.

Even if the United States and the West promise continuous military support, water from afar cannot quench the thirst for nearness.

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