According to Taiwanese media reports, the nominees of the blue, green and white parties for the Taoyuan mayoral election at the end of the year have been determined, forming a "three-legged governor". According to the latest media polls, Hsinchu Mayor Lin Zhijian recruited by the Democratic Progressive Party leads with 29% support, former "Executive President" Zhang Shanzheng recruited by the Kuomintang ranks second with a slight gap of 27%, People's Party The "legislator" Lai Xiangling nominated by is 5%. In this regard, Yu Beichen, retired major general of the Taiwan Army and former deputy chairman of the Taoyuan City Party Headquarters of the Kuomintang, said yesterday (29th), "There will definitely be a big difference between the Taoyuan polls and the final voting results." He even bluntly stated that this election campaign "The key in the end is the median voter."
According to the latest poll released by Taiwan's "United Daily News" yesterday, Lin Zhijian leads with 29%, Zhang Shanzheng is second with 27%, and Lai Xiangling is 5%. The gap between Lin Zhijian and Zhang Shanzheng is within the margin of error. The two show five or five waves. situation, 38% of voters still have not decided who to support. As for the popularity of winning the election, Lin Zhijian leads Zhang Shanzheng with 21% and Lai Xiangling with 29% and 1% respectively.
Cross analysis shows that Lin Zhijian has 29% support among female voters, which is better than Zhang Shanzheng's 23%. Among voters under 40 years old, Lin Zhijian also has an advantage, with 30% support, significantly ahead of Zhang Shanzheng's 11%. Voters over the age of 60 have the upper hand, with 31% support leading Lam Chi Kin by 7%; the two are neck and neck among voters aged 40 to 59, with support around 33%.
Yu Beichen pointed out in a radio program yesterday that in the first mayoral election after Taoyuan was upgraded to a "directly governed municipality", Wu Zhiyang was 10 to 15 percentage points ahead of Zheng Wencan in the polls. At that time, no one thought Zheng Wencan would win, but why? change? He said frankly that because Taoyuan is going to change, Taoyuan has attracted many "new Taoyuan residents" from Shuangbei and Hsinchu, and it is developing very fast. Therefore, he said bluntly, "Taoyuan's polls will definitely be very different from the final voting results." .
Yu Beichen mentioned that Taoyuan is divided into "Taoyuan" and "Taoyuan". The northern area is the more popular Green Camp, while the southern area is the traditional large ticket warehouse of Blue Camp. There are two reasons why there are many "new residents of Taoyuan", namely "housing prices" and "construction and welfare". However, after these new residents came to Taoyuan, they did not have blue or green in mind. Therefore, in recent years, local elections have A very subtle change has occurred, that is, "there is no longer a distinction between blue and green in caring for the citizens", but rather "the results of local governance". Therefore, after the voters of the blue camp and the green camp return, it will be a confrontation between the north and the south. Yu Beichen emphasized that the final victory The key lies in the "median voter".
Some media asked Ke Wenzhe "Is there a military order asking Lai Xiangling to achieve the target results?" Otherwise, it may repeat the embarrassment of the 2020 Kaohsiung City mayor by-election, where the People's Party only won 4.06% of the vote. Ke Wenzhe only responded briefly: "You have to work hard! You have to work hard!" (Editor: Fang Yanyan)
