Official information from the Russian Ministry of Defense and Ukrainian on June 25 showed that the Russian army has now fully controlled the Severonetsk region. At this point, the fierce competition and offensive and defensive battles between Russia and Ukraine in the Donbass region have basically ended. What kind of action plan will the Russian army have next?
Military action plans depend not only on military objectives, but also on changes in the strength of both sides, and more on the environment and situation. As the situation changes, goals must be adjusted accordingly.
Russia took special military action. The initial goals proposed were mainly to respond to NATO's eastward expansion , maintain national security, denazify and militarize Ukraine, maintain neutrality, and protect the security of the Russian nation in Ukraine. At present, after more than four months of fighting, Ukraine's own military facilities have been completely destroyed, and there are not many Azov Battalion extremists left. They have "liberated" the Donbass region and basically controlled Kherson , NATO has made it clear that it does not accept Ukraine. It should be said that the goals of the special military operation have been basically achieved.
For Russia, there are three aspects worth considering in the current situation.
1. Lithuania banned land traffic from Russia, cutting off land communication between Russia and its enclave Kaliningrad , which made Russia very angry.
In this regard, some people speculate that it was inspired by the United States. The Ukrainian chess piece is of little use. In order to continue to weaken Russia, it started a war in Lithuania. Careful analysis shows that this move should not be the intention of the United States, nor the EU , but Lithuania's own wishes. It wants to provoke Russia to take action, thereby pulling NATO into the water, strengthening NATO's military presence in Lithuania, and maintaining Lithuania's security. .
2. “Ukraine fatigue” has become a common phenomenon in Western countries. Although "Ukraine fatigue" is what Johnson said, it is currently a more common attitude of the United States and Western countries and people towards Ukraine.
At present, the United States and Western countries are still fulfilling their commitments to provide Ukraine with advanced weapons. However, after the heads of state of Germany, France, Italy and other countries visited Ukraine, they refused to continue supporting Ukrainian weapons. This will be a trend in the West's treatment of Ukraine.
3. Ukraine wants to win on the battlefield and wants continued support from the United States and Western countries. However, as the United States, which leads the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the attitudes of Biden , Blinken , the public, and the media have been changing recently.
html On June 24, during his visit to Germany, US Secretary of State Blinken expressed support for any diplomatic solution to resolve the Russia-Ukraine conflict.In view of the above situation, what action will the Russian army take next?
1. Attack Lithuania? The temperature is not yet available. However, if the EU and Lithuania do not lift the ban on land travel, Russia will never tolerate a weak country blocking its neck.
2. Renovation? The conflict between Russia and Ukraine has been going on for more than four months, and the troops have limited strength and insufficient rest. Although, in the later period, Russia adjusted its offensive and defensive rhythm, over time, the troops still needed to be renovated.
3. Heading to southern Ukraine? Regions such as Kherson, Zaporozhye, Mykolaiv, Odessa in southern Ukraine are not only very wealthy, but also industrial bases, and they are surrounded by the Black Sea. If Russia captures and controls these areas, it can not only establish a buffer zone with NATO, but also ensure the safety of Russian people in these areas. It can also develop its economy, military industry, and control the Black Sea. Therefore, Russia is most likely to divide its forces westward, consolidate Kherson's defense, and capture and control the Zaporozhye, Nikolayev, and Odessa Den regions in southern Ukraine.
