After the outbreak of the Russo-Ukrainian war, Ukraine and the West have been trying every means to drive a wedge between Russia and its allies.
On June 25, Russian President Putin met with Belarusian President Lukashenko in St. Petersburg . The next day, six Tu-22M3 strategic bombers belonging to the Russian Aerospace Force took off from the territory of Belarus and launched 12 cruise missiles towards Kiev, Sumy and other places.
At the same time, the Ukrainian intelligence service claimed that rockets were launched from Belarus and hit targets in Ukraine. Although these rockets and missiles were most likely launched by the Russian army on their own initiative, and Ukraine has no evidence that Belarus was directly involved in the Russia-Ukraine war, Ukraine still issued a warning to Belarus.
In the video speech, Zelensky also emphasized to the Belarusian people: "You have been involved in the war. The Kremlin has decided everything for you, but you are not slaves and cannon fodder, and you do not have to die."
It has been more than four months since the Russia-Ukraine war broke out, and Belarus has always stood firmly by Russia's side. The Russian army that raided Gosmetol Airport on the day the war broke out set out by helicopter from Belarus. Belarus provided several military bases for the Russian army, which effectively guaranteed the Russian offensive on the northern route. It can be said that without the support of Belarus, it will be difficult for Russia to make up its mind to launch special military operations against Ukraine.
The tone of Zelensky’s video speech was not small. Although he was worried that Belarus would also actively participate in this war and bring greater pressure to Ukraine, he still insisted on stating in a “warning” tone that Belarus should not be involved in the war. into this war. But he obviously ignored one point. Since he emphasized that "Belarus is not Russia's slave and cannon fodder," the Zelensky government itself is a "puppet" controlled by the West.
Ukraine has maintained good diplomatic relations with Russia for more than half of the 27 years since its independence. The cooperation between the two countries is quite deep and their relationship is close. Although Zelensky's previous Poroshenko itself had an "anti-Russian" connotation, after the Crimean Peninsula incident, Poroshenko himself did not directly provoke confrontation with Russia. On the contrary, Zelensky initiated the liquidation of pro-Russian politicians in the country as soon as he came to power, directly leading Ukraine to stand on the opposite side of Russia. Now that
has stood on the opposite side of Russia, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine is bound to intensify. This has been verified in this year's Russia-Ukraine war. Due to the recent unfavorable war situation, Zelensky obviously realized that Ukraine was struggling to support itself with NATO meager military assistance. Failure would only be a matter of time. So the next step should be to drive a wedge between Russia and Belarus and let Russia Completely losing allies who clearly took sides.
Zelensky once again showed off his superb acting skills, using the banner of "human rights" to incite the anti-war sentiments of the Belarusian people, "accusing" the "binding" between Russia and Belarusian high-level officials, in order to express his displeasure to Belarus. President Lukashenko puts pressure on him. Zelensky’s calculation may be as follows: when the Belarusian people “realize” that they are being bound by Russia, anti-war sentiment will ferment and become more serious; taking into account the political influence and support rate, Lukashenko It will no longer provide formal support to Russia.
But from another perspective, it is the aggressiveness of Belarus's neighboring countries Poland and Lithuania that makes Belarus and Russia more determined to stand in the same camp.NATO has announced that it will strengthen its military deployment in Poland and Lithuania. Not only will it increase its military presence in Poland, it will also repeatedly use fighter jets that can carry nuclear weapons to carry out "combat readiness cruises" to threaten Belarus.
Lukashenko naturally understands, so he asked Putin for help and asked for a reciprocal response to NATO's nuclear-armed military aircraft flying near the Belarusian border. Putin also agreed to this request. According to Reuters reported that Putin told Belarusian President Lukashenko on June 26 that the Russian military will deploy Iskander tactical ballistic missiles to Belarus in the next few months. At the same time, Putin also promised Lukashenko to provide the Belarusian Air Force with the opportunity to upgrade the Su-25 attack aircraft .
Lithuania and Poland have been hostile to Russia since the outbreak of the Russo-Ukrainian war. Poland has also allocated half of its main battle tanks and a large number of infantry fighting vehicles in its active forces for military assistance to Ukraine. Recently, Lithuania suddenly closed the railway transportation lines in the Russian enclave of Kaliningrad. Lukashenko said that Lithuania's behavior was tantamount to a "declaration of war." Belarus' public support for Russia led the West to regard Belarus as Russia's "accomplice in aggression" and began to exert economic and military pressure on Belarus.
Only when NATO was so aggressive did Belarus, a relatively weak country, ask for help from Russia. Russia also very loyally provided nuclear weapons deployment to Belarus. When the Su-25 attack aircraft in Belarus have the ability to deliver nuclear weapons, and the "Iskander" ballistic missile can also deliver the nuclear warhead into the territory of NATO member states, NATO will no longer dare to act rashly.
But then again, no matter how loud Zelensky’s tone is, it will not help at all in inciting anti-war sentiment in Belarus. The threats and sanctions imposed by the West on Belarus in recent years have already made the relationship between Belarus and the West "fire and water."
After the Russia-Ukraine war broke out, Belarus took advantage of the "NATO threat" and borrowed the Russian army's nuclear protection to further strengthen Belarus's national defense security. With Lukashenko determined to cling to Russia's thigh, no matter how Zelensky uses his acting skills to intimidate and induce, it will be difficult to alienate the direct relationship between Belarus and Russia. On the contrary, Zelensky should think carefully now: once Ukraine has lost the value of being exploited. Will the West spare no effort to support itself?
