Augusto Soto, an expert on Chinese issues and the leader of the Spanish "Dialogue with China" project
In the current international situation and epidemic crisis , The key is to understand the two vital countries of the United States and China. But in view of the current reality of the United States, it seems impossible to understand and understand her.
"We are already a polarized country, and our common understanding of the world has been completely fragmented." "New York Times" editor Arthur Gregg Sulzberger (Arthur Gregg Sulzberger) on June 8 Japan made the above conclusion. His reflection reflects that people are pessimistic about this largest superpower in history. Not long ago, a private company in the United States successfully sent a manned spacecraft into space, but this country was unable to prevent the severe damage caused by a microvirus.
As of the second week of June, the United States has confirmed more than 2 million cases of new coronavirus infection and caused 120,000 deaths, and so far there is no turning point.
At the same time, the country’s unemployment rate in May has reached 13.3%. After the murder of George Floyd, an African-American man, the Democratic and Republican parties became polarized, and anti-racism protests and marches in various places have exacerbated this polarization. The scale of this parade was the first time it appeared after Martin Luther King was assassinated in 1968. The occurrence of such widespread public protests during the days when epidemic prevention and isolation were required fully demonstrated the seriousness of the situation. In early June, the National Broadcasting Corporation (NBC) and the "Wall Street Journal" (The Wall Street Journal) released a poll report showing that 80% of American voters believed that the national situation was out of control.
Contradictions, scandals and unreasonable
Mexican diplomats and scholars recently stated that they had not received any help from the rich countries in the north during the current crisis, but they saw China full of medical aid supplies. The planes landed at the Mexican airport. And when we saw the Canadian Prime Minister hesitating for 21 seconds before answering a question about ethnic conflicts in southern neighboring countries, we could feel the confusion of these friendly neighbors of the United States. After all, these three countries have just signed version 2.0 of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), and the background of the signing is that Trump wants to build a wall on the Mexican border.
The concept of human rights has always been a high-sounding trump card in the internal and external affairs of the United States, and now this fig leaf has been completely torn off. Since World War II, the world has been operating in a way of globalization that is beneficial to the United States. This globalization first serves the interests of the United States itself, and then the interests of its allies. However, in the process of alienating Europe and a series of other countries, including China, the United States has not only violated its own principles, but has not yet proposed any alternative cooperation options and concepts.
The continuous fermentation of race issues has caused the divergence between the Democratic and Republican parties to continue to expand, and also caused rifts within the ruling party, bringing unrest to society and even affecting the decision-making of military institutions. The Trump administration has staged inferior and crazy political performances time and time again, showing behaviors that are not commensurate with the presidency and can be recorded in history. According to many American psychologists’ associations, Trump’s actions have shown on many occasions that he drew nourishment from the language of hatred and division, and that he acted as a "mental patient." He seems to have been shrouded in a cloak of incomprehensible personality, acting short-sighted and unreasonable. One of the reflections is that he will win the November presidential election again at all costs.
Facing China’s "Challenges"
In the well-known trade disputes, China has always responded to every decision or unilateral statement made by the United States instead of seeking the initiative in confrontation. . Therefore, to say that the "China-US trade war" or the "China-US new cold war" is not in line with the facts, because China is only making a reasonable response to the provocation of the United States. In the past three years, Trump has also been shaking the EU and NATO groups.Organizational structure to combat European commercial interests. Strangely, there are few voices saying that the United States is fighting a trade war with the European Union or engaging in an open strategic conflict. In fact, he is indeed competing with the European Union. Although it is different from the way he dealt with China, the seriousness of the situation cannot be ignored. Perhaps the "Shucydides Trap" described by the famous professor Graham Allison is the best explanation for all this. Throughout the course of history, there have been many similar situations in which one hegemony felt threatened by another rising power for fear of being replaced by it. What is incredible is that the original hegemon will not only suppress the rising countries, but also contain its traditional allies.
Thousands of years of historical civilization has allowed China to deeply understand the dangers of war and do everything possible to avoid causing it. As a sufficiently mature country with an ancient civilization, China fully understands that it is impossible to rule the world at all, so it has no intention to become a world hegemon. Before Trump took office, American analysts (and some analysts in the West) had believed for decades that as long as the United States got more involved in Chinese affairs, it could assimilate her. But today, does anyone still think that China will act like the United States? The well-known Singaporean scholar and diplomat Kishore Mahbubani recently commented on this topic: "This is a very bad assumption. If a country with a thousand years of cultural history allows a country like the United States to have only It would be very strange that a country with a quarter of its population changed.”
Dangerous years: Trump trap
After the chaos of ethnic protests in front of the world Lampe may lose the next US election. However, it must be remembered that he is capable of taking action, so between now and November, not only the United States, but also regional and world peace may face greater risks. If Trump loses the election, he is likely to choose a Nero-style ending. Any scholar who studies Roman history will understand what it means. At the moment, for Trump, it is necessary to protect the power in his hands at all costs, because once he loses it, he may face a series of legal proceedings. Therefore, as long as he determines that it is necessary, national unity or world peace will be terminated. On this adventurous road, he may choose to continue to expand and deepen his differences with China. In extreme cases, armed interventions may also be taken in Venezuela or Cuba.
This year, reality has surpassed fantasy, and we are in crisis. China has a historic opportunity to further explore the global structure of solidarity and cooperation among nations.
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Compiler: 姚贝
