The United Nations recently released a prediction about future population, which has attracted widespread attention. India's population will surpass China in mid-April 2023, becoming the world's most populous country.
Not only will the total population exceed that of China, but the birth rate has always been very high. At present, India's population birth rate is as high as 2.2. India has about 25 million newborns every year, while we had less than 10 million last year. In the medium to long term, China's total population may drop to less than half of India's in 2100.
India is also better than China in terms of population structure. We have begun to enter an aging society. According to India's explosive population rate, India will become a country dominated by young people. At present, the average age in my country is 38.8 years old and that in India is 29 years old.
China started reform and opening up in the late 1970s, which coincided with a wave of demographic dividend. So now that India's population exceeds that of China, can it also get a huge demographic dividend?
The answer is yes because India will become a market as big as China. But it is still a bit difficult to comprehensively surpass China.
At present, India is the fastest growing country in G20. By 2030, India's economic size may be equivalent to Japan, second only to the United States and China.
In fact, the reason why China has developed so fast is due to certain accidental factors. Historically, India is actually more qualified than China to become the world's factory of and .
Because India was once a British colony, the relevant laws and systems are exactly the same as those in the West, and English is also very popular in India. India and Western countries are natural allies and have demographic advantages. So why has China embarked on a path of rapid industrialization, while India has lagged far behind China?
In fact, the so-called demographic dividend does not mean just a large number of people, but requires a sufficient number of easy-to-manage labor force. In addition, China has a strong central government, which has incomparable advantages in infrastructure construction and manufacturing.
After many domestic companies developed and expanded, they also took a look at the huge market of India and began to invest in India. However, they often never returned because India has very strict management of foreign investment management, labor security, etc., which is completely different from China.
In fact, China does not need to worry too much about losing the country with the largest population. China has more than 80 million well-trained manufacturing workers, compared with more than 12 million in India and only about 5 million in Vietnam.
Whether it is India or Vietnam, it is not easy to replace China's status as the world's factory. It may even be impossible to replace it at all. However, the huge market based on its own population can attract a lot of investment.
At present, it seems that China has completed preliminary industrialization and is second to none among developing countries. Industrialization does not happen overnight. It requires the right time, place and people. At present, India does not have such conditions.
China’s labor force is still huge. In order to give full play to our own advantages, we launched the Belt and Road Initiative. Essentially, it is to consolidate China’s status as the world’s factory. Currently, only China can do this.
If India is delayed in completing industrialization and social transformation and upgrading, then its development is likely to be locked up, and it will be trapped in a trap like Latin America . Its population of more than one billion will be a burden rather than an advantage.
looks at the fact that "India has the largest population in the world" calmly. India may attract some labor-intensive industries, and some labor-intensive enterprises, including China, may actively move to ASEAN , India, and Africa.
But for more domestic industries, they must upgrade as soon as possible and choose "mid-to-high-end industries" with certain technical content. They must follow the path of becoming a technological power. Otherwise, if they only compete in low-end industries, then India will pose a great threat to us.After all, India's population structure is relatively young, and its economic growth rate is likely to remain high in the next 10 years.
The demographic dividend that relied solely on the number of working-age people in the past is slowly disappearing. Only by strengthening basic education, basic research, and mastering high technology can China's rise be truly realized.
