Direct News: US President's Assistant to National Security Affairs Sullivan secretly visited Kiev, the capital of Ukraine, and expressed his firm support for Ukraine. He also announced an additional security assistance program worth US$400 million. What impact will this have on the subsequent Russian-Ukrainian conflict?
Special Commentator Shi Hong: Sullivan is an important aide and think tank for the Biden administration to formulate foreign policies. He visited Ukraine in secret, undoubtedly to further understand the current actual situation in Ukraine, and then adjust the US policy of aiding Ukraine based on this. Because the United States is about to hold a midterm election, the situation of the Democratic Party is worrying. If the Republicans take control of Congress after the midterm election, it will be difficult for the Biden administration to provide aid to Ukraine as easily as before.
Furthermore, US media reported that 90% of the weapons and equipment used by the United States to aid Ukraine were missing, which made the Biden administration look very bad and even more unfavorable to the Democratic Party’s election situation. Therefore, another purpose of Sullivan's visit to Kiev is to require Ukraine to carefully manage the weapons and equipment provided by the United States and not to expel them. Sullivan announced that he would provide Ukraine with another $400 million in aid. This is the practice of senior US officials visiting Ukraine since the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict. He gave Ukraine a gift to show the United States' support attitude, allowing Ukraine to continue to serve the interests of the United States and weaken Russia.
Therefore, Sullivan's secret visit to Ukraine was to make the upcoming US midterm elections, which would not have a great impact on the subsequent Russian-Ukrainian conflict. Only after the results of the US midterm elections come out is the time for what changes will the US attitude to aid Ukraine change, and that will have a truly significant impact on the trend of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict in the future.
Direct news: Russia submitted relevant evidence of Britain's participation in the attack on the Sevastopol military port to Bronnath, the British Ambassador to Russia. What do you think about this?
Special commentator Shi Hong: Judging from the Russian statement, the evidence this time is not very strong. Because the evidence mentioned by Russia is that the UK trains Ukrainian special forces personnel to conduct underwater infiltration operations and provides unmanned submarine vehicles to enable the Ukrainian army to conduct underwater attacks, however, the Sevastopol military port was attacked by drones and surface unmanned boats not long ago, and no evidence of unmanned submarines participating in the attack has been found.
In other words, what the Russian side said is more evidence of counter-inferior based on the results of the incident, but it is not the direct evidence of the attack on the Severstopol military port this time. The reason why Britain argued that it did not participate in the attack was mainly because Russia has not provided direct evidence now. The so-called "catching thieves and taking dirty things" is that Russia has no direct evidence, so the UK will never admit it. Judging from the accusations against Britain by Russia in recent months, the degree of confrontation between Russia and Britain is very serious. Britain is at least much deeper than the EU in intervening in the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, and the UK is the protagonist in training the Ukrainian army to conduct maritime special operations and amphibious operations.
If the UK has been disregarding Russia's accusations and warnings and still does its own way in terms of intervention, then the degree of confrontation between Russia and the UK will further increase, which may lead to an uncontrollable situation.
Direct news: Russia has been evacuating civilians from Khlsong to the left bank of the Dnieper River, and the Russian President is now openly in favor of the evacuation operation. Some analysts believe that Russia will abandon Khlsong's right bank area. However, Ukraine believes that Russia's recent actions are creating traps to lure the Ukrainian army into the trap.What is your analysis on this?
Special Commentator Shi Hong: The current situation in Khlsson is still unfavorable to Russia. The main reason is that Khlsson City is located on the right bank of the Dnieper River, which has always faced great difficulties in the reinforcements and logistics supply of the Russian army. Therefore, the Russian side is not very confident in defending Khlsson. But the Russian side is unwilling to give up Khlsson without a fierce battle, because this will severely blow to Russian morale and will also cause great shocks in Russia. The fact that Stremsov, deputy of Khlsson's administrative agency, revealed that he did not want to withdraw but "must make some very difficult decisions" is actually a portrayal of the Russian side's indecision now.
As for what Ukrainian side said that Russia is creating traps, this possibility is not high. The Ukrainian army's forces in Khlsun have a clear advantage over the Russian army and have strong intelligence support from NATO, so it has a basic judgment on the actual situation of the Russian army. The reason why Ukraine says this now is not ruled out that it is to paralyze the Russian side and prevent the Russian side from making up its mind to withdraw the Russian army from Khlsong, so that it can further gather troops and equipment and then launch a large-scale offensive against the Russian army, cut off the Russian reinforcements and supply channels on the Dnieper River, encircle and annihilate the Russian army's biological forces in Khlsong, and then trigger a huge shock within Russia.
Because although the Russian army has been retreating in the past two months, the vitality has not suffered much loss, and the Ukrainian army has never been able to fight a good-looking encirclement and annihilation battle. If the Russian army has no serious damage, then Russia will continue to confront Ukraine.
Author丨Shi Hong, Shenzhen Satellite TV's "Live Broadcast Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan" special commentator
