Brazil The most divided and polarized election in recent years has come to an end. "Tropical Trump" Bolsonaro lost to "one of the most respected left-wing politicians in Latin America" by a slight gap of 1.8%.
From president to prison, now he regained his control over Brazil. Lula's return to politics this time will once again sound the clarion call for Latin America's "turn left".
data shows that former left-wing president Lula won 50.9% of the votes, and the current right-wing Bolsonaro won 49.1%. The victory or defeat of the left and right battle has been decided, and Lula will take office on January 1 next year.
. The four major problems are difficult to solve, and pushing Bolsonaro to step down
Bolsonaro's defeat this time is predictable. Since last year, his opposition rate has exceeded 50%. Social contradictions are very sharp. The four major problems prompted Bolsonaro to finally step down:
1. Serious internal internal friction. There are different interest groups in the Brazilian cabinet, which restrict each other and seriously affect the efficiency of the president's governance. Bolsonaro frequently replaced cabinet members during his tenure, causing him to rebel with many political allies. The conflicts within the government are very large, and calls for impeachment of the president are also one after another, and the foundation of the government is very unstable.
2. The economy has not recovered. , like , Trump , Bolsonaro has always opposed vaccine manufacturing and epidemic prevention policies. Ignorance, incompetence and anti-scientific policies have led Brazil to become the most severe country in the world. House of Lords also wrote a thousand-page report to list Bolsonaro's crimes, accusing him of "fraud, murder, and genocide." With the continued spread of the epidemic coupled with external factors of the global economic downturn, Brazil's economy is difficult to recover.
3. Social contradictions are sharp. Bolsonaro's neoliberal economic policy has exacerbated the gap between the rich and the poor and environmental pollution, not only passing on the government's fiscal burden to the poor, but also seriously damaging the international image of the environmentally friendly power. At the same time, Bolsonaro also suppressed the peasant movement, provoked racial and class contradictions, and caused serious differentiation and confrontation in Brazilian society.
4. Diplomatic strategy for decoupling. Bolsonaro is a "fan" of Trump, but not Biden . He does not stand in the United States on the Russian and Ukrainian issues, and also faces European and American countries on the rainforest environment. In addition, Bolsonaro also excluded Latin American left-wing countries, withdrew from organizations such as South American National Alliance , and joined forces with right-wing governments to fight against ideological .
Therefore, compared with Bolsonaro's failure in the past four years, more people hope that Lula can come back. As Brazil's first left-wing president who came from a working class, Lula was once praised by Obama as the most popular politician in the world. She had a great ups and downs throughout her life and had constant controversy. Her approval rating when she stepped down was as high as 87%, which was a legend.
2. Everyone hopes to return, Lula comes out again
During his eight years in office, Lula ended the turmoil during the military government period, united the Brazilian people and achieved rapid economic growth, led 30 million people out of poverty, actively integrated into the international market, and made Brazil shine as a country in BRICS.
Lula did a very good job in diplomatic work. A rough statistics show that during his tenure, he visited more than 80 countries and regions, actively participated in international affairs, and truly turned Brazil into a "big power."
Politically, Lula adopted the reform policy as moderate as possible, and did what she could for the poor without touching vested interest group and narrowed the gap between the rich and the poor. Although this cannot fundamentally solve deep social problems, it eases social contradictions to the greatest extent and avoids turmoil.
After resigning in 2011, Lula originally planned to stay away from politics, but Brazil's direction was "drift" and was gradually declining under Bolsonaro's rule. Therefore, even after being imprisoned in corruption cases, Lula was still determined to come back again and try to get Brazil back on track.
It is worth noting that after the Brazilian Supreme Court rehabilitated Lula, its approval rating quickly rose from 9% when he was imprisoned to more than 50%, which shows that the Brazilian people generally sympathize and miss the old president who cares about people's livelihood.
Of course, Brazil's national conditions today are very different from his administration. It is impossible to copy past success intact. The biggest challenge of is how to correct the legacy of Bolsonaro's influence . Winning the trust of the right-wing groups, eliminating social contradictions, and responding to international challenges are all issues that Lula urgently needs to solve.
. Will the "Brazil version of Capitol Hill riot" be staged?
In the first round of voting, Lula's votes were always ahead of Bolsonaro by about 5 percentage points, but the vote rate of both sides did not exceed 50%, so the second round of voting began. The competition was very fierce, so the focus of people's concern was not who could win the election, but whether the loser could willingly accept the failure of .
This reminds people of the Capitol Hill riots caused by Trump's loss of the general election. Bolsonaro has been criticizing Brazil's electoral system since he was elected in 2018, saying that there is fraud in the election system.
In this election, poll data have always shown that Lula is about 10% ahead of Bolsonaro. Pessimistic expectations have made Bolsonaro increase his criticism of the election system and spread rumors in the international community that hackers manipulate the electronic voting system during the election, but were harshly refuted by the Brazilian Supreme Court.
In response to this, Bolsonaro not only openly spread fraudulent voting remarks, but also criticized officials, called on the army to support him, and asked supporters to "be prepared for battle" , which is exactly the same as what Trump did, both attacking the country's electoral system when polls were lagging behind.
Moreover, Bolsonaro is also a "fan" of Trump. His first stop at the beginning of his term was the United States. He is also a right-wing politician. Bolsonaro follows the same role. If he becomes angry after losing this time, he might also learn from Trump's "scrambling for elections", causing more violence and turmoil.
After Trump lost the election, Bolsonaro thought that he would have such a day, so he purged cabinet members on a large scale and wooed the military and external forces to "supervise" the election process. All kinds of actions indicate that he might "select" like Trump.
On the eve of the election, Brazil's political polarization has been exaggerated. At least one violent incident against politicians occurs every day, and even a vicious case of Bolsonaro's supporters shooting opposition officials. This shows how fierce the political struggle in Brazil is. It is precisely because of the frequent occurrence of violent incidents that it has had a great negative impact on Bolsonaro.
In the last debate, Bolsonaro and Lula reproduced the verbal battle between Trump and Biden. Both sides attacked each other personally, and the scene was very disgraceful. Even Trump joined in person, accusing Lula of being a "extreme left madman."
However, during the debate, Bolsonaro said that whoever gets more votes wins the election. In other words, Bolsonaro has actually realized that he may lose the election, and the power organs and the military are not very good at it. The off-track tricks may not work, so his attitude has changed. said that he would respect the election results .
From now on, Bolsonaro is at most trying to force relevant departments to investigate for a while, and it is highly likely that the result will not change. large-scale riots like Trump should not happen .
. Bolsonaro's fate, referring to Trump, is sooner or later to be liquidated. The inaction of the Bolsonaro government during the epidemic, resulting in the death of hundreds of thousands of people in Brazil, and other issues will make Bolsonaro the target of public criticism.
But no matter what, Bolsonaro has a 49% approval rating after all, and Lula will face nearly half of its opponents and an extremely divided country .
. The "backyard" changes, and the United States cannot escape its decline. Destiny
At present, after Lula's victory, major Latin American countries such as Brazil, Argentina , and Colombia are all left-wing leaders in power. The ideological unity will undoubtedly seriously hinder the long-term implementation of the " Monroeism " policy.
, especially Lula, has always attached importance to the Latin American integration process and diplomatic relations with China, and has also emphasized "de-dollarization" economically. In short, with the addition of Brazil, Latin American countries can go more steadily and farther on the road to getting rid of US control.
From a broader perspective, the rise of the left-wing forces in Latin America will undoubtedly make the United States more isolated in the international community . Bolsonaro once said that if he loses, the United States will be actually isolated.
Since last year, left-wing leaders have won elections in Colombia, Honduras , Chile , Peru , Latin America almost completely "turned left". Of course, the left of Latin America is also divided into radical and moderate. Lula is a relatively moderate and pragmatic. Although there may be some adjustments in domestic and diplomatic affairs, the development direction will not undergo fundamental changes.
For the left-wing regime in Latin America, economic recovery is still the top priority . Not only Brazil, but the entire America is very bad in responding to the epidemic. The economic decline and a large number of unnecessary deaths have caused the economies of regional countries to regress a lot. Whether left or right, solving economic problems is the top priority for consolidating the regime.
In fact, Latin American politics has been swaying left and right. The academic community specifically uses the "pink wave" to describe several repeated jumps in Latin America since the 21st century. Is this resurgence of the left wing to use the "carrot" policy or the "stick" policy? From the current stage, the United States is focusing on the game between big powers, and may not be distracted from taking radical measures to face the change of the backyard. On the contrary, Latin America is an important target to win over .
. Biden sends his blessings quickly, is he trying to win over or has recognized the reality?
Perhaps it was precisely out of the need to win over the left-wing forces in Latin America that less than 24 hours after the Brazilian election was released, US President Biden quickly sent congratulations. French President Macron also congratulated Lula, and claimed that he would strengthen bilateral cooperation.
This shows that although ideological disputes still exist, the wave of globalization has forced both sides to make some concessions. In the United States' view, it is because of the rise of the left-wing forces and the lack of attention of the United States itself that China has expanded its influence in the region. In fact, it is not. The relationship between China and the left-wing regime in Latin America is not based on ideology. It is obviously arrogant and unreasonable for the United States to regard the left as a "democratic regression".
In addition to Latin America, Europe has also experienced the rise of far-right forces. The same is that both Latin America and European countries have changed based on a complete democratic system. The election does not substantially threaten the national foundation. instead, the Capitol Hill incident in the United States has extremely dangerous political separatist characteristics.
Therefore, the United States interferes in other countries on the grounds of democracy is a typical example of "strict discipline and lenient treatment for oneself". The fact is that whether it is the left or right wing in power, it is the result of democratic choice, not a democratic recession. It makes no sense for the United States to impose its own election chaos and democratic failure on other countries. instead shows that the United States itself is the loser of democratic recession and order .
