[Text/Observer Network Columnist Cao Yeman]
For Europe, this year is really unfavorable - after the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, millions of Ukrainian refugees fled to Europe; the inflation rate in all European countries set a record; at the same time, the energy crisis is becoming more and more intense...
Recently, there have been incidents of deliberate destruction of the "Northern Stream" natural gas pipeline and the explosion of the Crimea Bridge. All of this is a prelude to disaster for Europe.
If you ask an ordinary European politician or media: "Who destroyed the 'North Stream' pipeline?" They will answer: "Russia!" But is this really true? European politicians who blame everything on Russia have a hard time finding a reason to justify themselves:
Some say that this is Russia sending a signal to the world that they have a powerful enough weapon and that the world needs to take Russia seriously and show respect;
Some say that Russia is showing that it is Russia, not Europe, now it has the initiative to decide to cut off energy relations.
Russia said that neither the European countries that purchased natural gas from Russia or Russia that sold natural gas to Europe have any interest in destroying those infrastructures. They raised another possible culprit - the United States.
No one knows exactly who did the explosion anyway. Russia accuses the United States, the United States accuses Russia, but Europe has to bear the consequences.
Will Europe continue to be fooled by the United States?
If there is no natural gas in Europe, the vast majority of European industries will not be able to operate and enterprises will have to move to other places. The United States may take over these industries transferred from Europe and cheaply buy bottom scarred European companies. Most importantly, the market demand for U.S. LNG is increasing, with most of which (about three-quarters of all U.S. production) now being sold to Europe.
Some reports even claim that American companies are buying cheap Russian gas through special channels, then converting it into liquefied natural gas and selling it to Europe at a high price.
The current situation in Europe and the close relationship between Europe and the United States means that if Europe is in trouble, it will seek help from the United States, which actually clearly supports the point put forward by Russia: the United States blows up the "North Stream" because they can now get more money from Europe.
But in recent months, as friendships in Europe and the United States have become closer, almost no one (at least no one in the official circle) dares to blame the United States. And among ordinary Europeans, opinions are very different, with most people blaming Russia, while others refuse to believe that Russia will be stupid enough to destroy its own channels.
In communication with my family, my father thought that it might be the Americans that caused the explosion. He said that now EU should realize that Americans only care about their own interests, and the United States will not hesitate to support a war on European land - whether it is for geopolitical considerations or just to make money.
Some people might think that the explosion of these two pipelines prevented the flow of Russian natural gas, but that is not true. "North Stream" has not delivered natural gas to Europe for several weeks. Nord Stream 1 was closed in early September as Russia announced sanctions imposed by Europe prevented them from providing necessary maintenance for the pipeline. "Beixi" No. 2 has not even been officially put into use.
aircraft aerial photography " Nord Stream - 2" gas leak, pictured from the Danish defense website
Still, the consequences of the incident were still disastrous. In the future, Europe's hopes for improving relations with Russia are almost shattered. For European politicians, these explosions reveal the true vulnerability of relying entirely on Russian gas supplies. Although the culprit behind this incident is still unknown, the vast majority of European politicians do not suspect that Russia caused the incident.
In Europe, this is the narrative of almost all media. This narrative will also affect the future direction of European politics. This will bring European countries even more united against Russia in the coming months, and I believe they don't even have much room to look back.
At present, the statement that Western media is promoting is: "The tomorrow will be better without Russia and Europe and the United States!" In fact, only those who don't have to worry about money still believe this.
At the beginning of the war, most Europeans and even Eastern Europeans supported this position because they were worried that Russia would use Ukraine as a springboard to invade Europe. But the longer the war lasts, the easier it is for Europeans to change their minds, and more and more people are dissatisfied with continuing the conflict.
Europeans have realized that if they want to continue living a normal life, they actually need Russian and Russian resources, and they also realize that their own government is only being used by the United States, and the United States is most interested in keeping the war going. They also found that Americans who were opposed to Russia on the surface, but in fact they still had room for Russia and did not have to bear so many consequences, and could even make money because of the war.
In Europe, people of different social classes have huge differences on these issues. People with blue-collar backgrounds are most affected by inflation and rising energy prices, and they prefer peace between Europe and Russia. I think this could have a huge impact on the upcoming European elections. The poor will have a stronger motivation than ever to participate in the election so that they can get rid of governments that choose to work with the United States rather than focus on protecting their citizens.
Therefore, even if the current United States and Europe are united, it is only because the current European government is pro-American. If these governments are replaced, it is still uncertain whether the boat of "friendship" in Europe and the United States will capsize.
Europe is saving itself like this...
Although no natural gas has been transported through the "North Stream" for a long time, the damage of the "North Stream" will drive the prices of natural gas in Europe to further rise. Natural gas prices in Europe have been falling since August, but new problems in the Nord Stream are causing gas prices to surge suddenly as uncertainty over future gas delivery.
European governments are trying to protect European citizens and small businesses by limiting rising energy prices or providing financial assistance to poor families, but this help cannot last forever.
There are not many options for European companies to deal with the current crisis. Many companies, especially smaller companies, have been destroyed by lockdowns caused by the previous COVID-19 pandemic, so they collapsed after inflation arrived.
Companies that are still struggling are constantly seeking help from the government. They said that without the help of the government, they had no choice but to significantly raise prices or close businesses.
Recently, I read an article in the Slovak newspaper about how some companies find workarounds to deal with inflation. Instead of raising prices, these companies chose to narrow down their products. This means that you will buy your favorite chocolate and pay for it at the previous price, but the chocolate will be smaller than before, and you can buy cereals at the original price, but there will be less cereal in the box.
From the national perspective, the governments of European countries are also trying to find ways to save themselves. I think the Spanish government provides a good example. Spain, for example, is implementing new tax policies for energy and power companies to charge them for energy prices when they rise. The goal of this move is to collect excess profits from these companies and then use the money to redistribute it in order to take care of the interests of all citizens.
They have many other policies, such as: setting a gas price ceiling called the "Iberian exception"; reducing the VAT of electricity (from 21% to 5%); subsidizing gasoline prices for consumers (subsidizing 20 cents per liter of diesel or gasoline by the end of the year); setting a rental ceiling (up to 2% increase); paying a one-time 200 euro subsidy for all individuals, families and households whose annual income is less than 14,000 euros; increasing the basic income of the poorest people by 15%; and subsidizing auxiliary housing costs for certain groups. Spain also plans to raise the minimum wage standard (currently 1,000 euros).
On the other hand, countries like Czech Republic have done little to date to help their citizens. The Czech government only gives 200 euros per child as a subsidy, but this only applies to families with annual incomes below 1,600 euros. This caused a lot of anger among the citizens of Czech . Opposition parties are taking advantage of the incompetence and inaction of the Czech government today to help their campaign.
On September 3, tens of thousands of Czech people who were tortured by soaring energy prices took to the streets of the capital.
Due to increasing public pressure, the Czech government has now decided to introduce the so-called energy-saving tax starting from October 1. This is to provide a fixed amount of support to families so that they can pay for their energy costs. A total of 1.3 billion euros have been formulated for this budget. But so far, people are still uncertain who is eligible for the funding.
In short, Europe will go through a difficult period, which will affect the poor more clearly. Rich people obviously have to spend more money on energy and various necessities of life, but eventually they will survive the difficult period. However, poor people who do not have enough money will suffer, and the consequences will soon emerge in political life.
Recently, increasingly popular among European poor are radical right-wing parties that promise people to break away from the politically correct EU and promise to protect the national interests by creating a strong government that cares for the interests of the people. The tone of this big government is obviously the opposite of today's European governments, which are mostly liberal, allowing people to do what they want to do.
The recession in Europe could lead to the rise of the neo-Nazis. Even if there is no new Hitler in Europe, the upcoming European recession will push many radical right-wing parties to power - those that are extremely radical, racist and oppose any form of European integration . If the EU and European governments cannot quickly find a way to relieve the grievances of the poor, this could ultimately lead to the destruction of the entire EU.
Even if the poor do not occupy the mainstream of society, they also have the right to vote. If the radical right gets more support, we may see more European countries following the UK and leaving the EU. In addition, due to the previous migration wave , many European countries have large non-European populations. With the rise of the far-right in , racial tensions, racist attacks, and even huge risks of terrorism may follow.
"Is life in Europe so terrible now as advertised?"
Faced with the current situation, many Europeans are pessimistic. They even feel that Europe cannot deal with it through the commonly used monetary policy (that is, printing more money), because energy cannot be printed like paper money.
On the Internet, some people asked: Is life in Europe so terrible as it is advertised? Some people think that Europeans' lives have not changed much and are not so scattered. Is this the real situation?
My answer is: the Ukrainian crisis has undoubtedly changed the lives of Europeans, but so far, it has not completely subverted European lives. Europe is the most developed region in the world after all, so they still have a lot of money and many choices to protect their country. But this does not apply to ordinary Europeans.
Although Europe has not been destroyed or affected by war in a physical sense, the European people are really not in a good state of mind now, and they are deeply affected by war. If you travel to Europe as a tourist and just observe it briefly, it may be difficult to recognize this change, but every time I talk to my family, I can feel it.
I think this is also related to the COVID-19 pandemic. The experience at that time very much affected the overall mood of Europeans. When Europeans began to get used to coexisting with the new coronavirus and regained their freedom, a war broke out in Ukraine. This has brought a big blow to people's psychology, and emotions of despair and fear are common among Europeans who do not know what is waiting for them in the future.
Everyone has a lot of negative thoughts.My family tried to stop me from going to China 4 years ago and they said "China is not safe" but now they joked that they regret not going with me because China now seems to be the safest place to live in the world.
But they have their own lives in Europe and no matter what happens around them, they have to keep moving forward. My family also didn’t make any long-term plans because no one knew what to expect, so it could be futile to make plans. They continue to live a normal life, go to work, go out with friends, go on a trip…and pray that there will be no more disaster in Europe.
In the news, they can see predictions about the war being over soon, and the reasons given by experts are: Russia is doing very badly and they are losing to the Ukrainian army!
But these predictions have been on the news since the war began, and it has been months since. But Russia did not give up. Instead, it even redoubled its efforts to strengthen its attack on Ukraine.
I think these predictions are primarily intended to support Europeans morally and to motivate them to be willing to accept the energy crisis and inflation because "if they do, the war will end soon"! I think most people still believe this or motivate themselves to believe it, but more and more people are also beginning to realize that Europeans need to learn to live peacefully with Russia to save themselves.
In a brief statement in February and a public speech in June, Merkel condemned Russia while still calling on Western countries to maintain dialogue with Russia. Picture from German media ZDF
Conclusion
The energy supply full of uncertainty will not only make the houses of European people cold in winter, but also likely to cause the collapse of European industries. At present, Russia's dominance in Europe may have ended, and Europe's excessive pursuit of clean energy in the past even means that Europe has more dependence on the United States.
On the other hand, Russia is seeking new markets in Asia-Pacific. This will be beneficial to China. China has now purchased Russian gas at 50% of the price, and China and Russia are discussing building more gas pipelines.
I think China should be smarter than Europe, always maintain autonomy in energy selection, and maintain diversified supply channels for natural gas and other energy sources. Because in terms of energy security, relying solely on one country to obtain most of its energy supply can have devastating consequences. On this issue, what's happening in Europe today is a lesson.
This article is an exclusive article by Observer.com. The content of the article is purely the author's personal opinion and does not represent the platform's opinion. It may not be reproduced without authorization, otherwise legal responsibility will be pursued. Follow Observer.com WeChat guanchacn to read interesting articles every day.
