First, I will clearly tell all readers that this article is a purely analytical article and does not involve positions or discussions on justice. I hope everyone can understand from a higher perspective: the essence of the game behind the conflict between Russia and Ukraine.
In the past few days, Russia has suddenly strengthened communication with the Americans, such as: the US and Russian Defense Ministers have made two phone calls within a few days, Russia seems to have also made phone calls with the British, etc.
Many people should have a huge question: what have the two sides talked about, what will the impact on the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, and what is the purpose of the call? Why are there so many calls these days?
I saw some people still discussing: who called who first, and then came up with which side might admit defeat, etc. In fact, this kind of discussion has almost no practical significance. Since both parties can talk, this shows a fact - both parties want to communicate, talk, and express their respective needs.
Currently, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine mainly involves four parties, Russia, Ukraine, Europe and the United States. The main strategic gamers are actually only three parties, and Ukraine should be excluded.
After all, everyone knows a fact: without strong support from the Americans, Ukraine will not have the ability or strength to fight back against Russia.
In other words, as long as the Americans decide not to support Ukraine now, then the Russians can regain their battlefield advantages now, immediately, and immediately, and even move forward rapidly.
So what is the current situation on the battlefield? In fact, it is still in a state of impasse overall, which means that no one can defeat anyone completely.
Ukrainian Currently, it mainly relies on the Americans to support the counterattack behind the scenes; the Russians have shown a downward trend and at the same time they want to negotiate. However, such a situation does not mean that Russia cannot continue to fight and will definitely fail.
Now Ukrainians think that their goal has not been achieved, so they are unwilling to talk or do not want to talk. The Americans don’t want to compromise quickly for their own purposes now. After all, from the perspective of the development of the war situation: the Ukrainians are still actively counterattacking.
However, the current conflict between Russia and Ukraine has a tendency to escalate, such as: the United States sends troops to Romania , NATO and Russia's nuclear exercises, and accusations of " dirty bomb ", etc.
This conflict has been fought until now, how should we define it? It's actually very simple. It's just a local conflict, and neither side has any intention of destroying each other.
Russia has actually completely given up its plan to destroy Ukraine; similarly, Ukraine cannot attack Russia's mainland. The Americans will not currently provide Ukraine with weapons used to fight Russian mainland.
So the rest is to talk about a core issue: what is the result of this conflict or what is the point of the interests of both parties?
From this point of view, whether it is the American nuclear exercise or the Russian nuclear deterrence, it is actually increasing the bargaining chips. At present, I don’t think either side can take a nuclear attack. Once the nuclear strike against occurs, the conflict will immediately escalate to a point that neither side can bear.
I have a high probability of thinking: The Russians will not express their intention to use the nuclear weapon in Ukraine. This should also be the result of the talks between the United States and Russia.
So if this conflict continues without restrictions, will it really be beneficial to the United States and Russia? In fact, it is not very beneficial to both sides. What the Americans want is: weaken Russia's war ability and make Russia no longer intimidate its own world hegemony.
In fact, from this conflict to the present, Americans have already known a fact in their hearts: Russia will not be able to shake its position as the world hegemon in the next few decades.
After all, Russia's comprehensive strength and military capabilities have been completely exposed. It is really not good and basically unable to challenge the Americans' dominance.
Under such a current situation, is it still necessary for Americans to force Russia to a dead end? I don't think it's necessary at all. If Russia is really forced into a dead end, there is still danger of nuclear war against . This is a result that Americans are never willing to see, and it is inconsistent with their strategic purpose of participating in the Russian-Ukrainian conflict.
Everyone thinks about one thing in reverse: If Russia really releases nuclear weapons in Ukraine, the Americans will be in a dilemma. If you don't fight back, you will inevitably lose the trust of European allies and the image of overlords you have established for many years will also collapse.
However, if you counterattack, you may fall into a big battle. In terms of the current technological, military and economic strength of the Americans, they basically completely crush Russia, so there is no need to engage in a nuclear war.
I have said a long time ago that Americans use the strategy of "boiling frogs in warm water" to deal with Russia, which is to slowly make Russia lose its threat to itself.
But if Russia completely defeated, collapsed, or even disintegrated in this conflict. Who is the most beneficial to this? It is nothing more than the most beneficial to Ukraine, Eastern Europe and European countries.
Is a situation that Americans are willing to see without external threats? Obviously not, this is very important. , since , and so why are most European countries willing to follow the Americans?
In fact, the reason is very simple: Europe was threatened by the Soviet Union before, and later by Russia.
1966 Charles de Gaulle visited the Soviet Union
Many people will refute me here and then talk about the issue of values. Although this is true, it is not absolute. For example: the French withdrew from NATO, actively contacted the Soviet Union and established diplomatic relations with us.
Everyone must remember one thing: What was the attitude of Americans when Merkel and Russia built the Nord Stream pipeline? That is firmly opposed and sanctioned.
Americans are very afraid of one thing happening, that is: Europe and Russia eased the contradictions, and Russia in turn completely integrated into Europe. When Russia's national strength was extremely weak, it also wanted to join NATO, but it was firmly rejected by the Americans.
From this we can draw a small conclusion: Can Russia continue to threaten Europe, and whether there are any external threats in European countries. This basically determines whether Europe is willing to go completely with Americans or whether it is willing to be Americans completely.
To put it bluntly: If Russia really declines completely and has no threat to Europe, it is not in line with the Americans' purpose of controlling Europe.
Why did Europe establish EU , why did France withdraw from NATO, why did France and Germany disagree with the United States attack Iraq , etc. In fact, it is: deep in the hearts of big and powerful countries, there is a strong desire to escape from the control of the United States.
However, after the end of World War II, Europe first had the powerful enemy of the Soviet Union and later the threat of Russia, so Europe still firmly held the Americans' thighs.
In fact, Russia also saw this in this Russian-Ukrainian conflict, so overall, it did not make too much extreme behavior towards France, Germany and other countries, such as: expressing willingness to restore gas supply, expressing willingness to negotiate, etc.
However, France, Germany and other countries did not appreciate it and were still strongly aided Ukraine. Their purpose was to completely defeat Russia and completely lose external threats in Europe, especially those in Eastern Europe.
As for Ukraine at this stage, in the eyes of Europe and Americans, how long it takes and what level it takes is actually the Americans have the final say.
As long as the Americans slow down or find various reasons to reduce aid, Ukraine will immediately lose the ability to continue the offensive. After the analysis of
or above, let’s take a look: Why are the United States and Russia now communicating, or even negotiating in secret?
The Russian side actually has nothing to analyze. Now they really don’t want to continue to fight, but they just can’t find a reasonable offer.
What is now confused is: Is it the territories that Russia has now occupied to negotiate? Or should Russia withdraw to pre-war state for ceasefire negotiations? To put it bluntly: Russia is still talking about the price of the armistice.
Let’s focus on analyzing a core question: Why are Americans willing to negotiate with Russia now and why do they also show an attitude of wanting to compromise? In fact, there are two core reasons:
First, as previously analyzed, what Americans want is that Russia no longer has the ability to challenge its own world hegemony - it will never have this ability.
But what Americans want is not Russia being completely defeated. Once such a situation occurs, the EU will inevitably gradually break away from American control or no longer willingly become an American younger brother. This point is easy to understand. As mentioned earlier, when there is no external threat, Europe will no longer need American security protection. The purpose of the establishment of the EU was to make Europe a European European, otherwise what would be the meaning of establishing the EU?
The second reason is the most critical and core reason - Americans still have big things to do and big chess to play
I would like to ask you a question: Which country is most likely to challenge the dominance of the United States in the future, and which country is likely to become the biggest and most urgent threat to the United States?
Please don’t tell me it is Iran and Russia. Russia's performance this time has actually reassured the Americans - they have no strength or ability to challenge the Americans' dominance.
Now the United States has basically reached a consensus-we are their biggest and most urgent challenges and threats in the future. If you know this reality, you will be able to figure out a lot of things.
In reality, we are much more difficult to deal with than Russia. At least we still have supply chain factors and economic strength. In addition, it seems that the military strength should also be above Russia.
This time, we are basically aware of our attitude towards the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, and we are generally in a "neutral" state. Of course, the purpose of our doing this is very simple. We don’t want to overstimulate Europe. After all, the trade between and in is there.
Although the Russians express their understanding of us on the surface, they have a mentality or thought behind their backs, I think everyone should be able to guess. We don’t know whether the call between the United States and Russia will talk about this issue, and it is possible that Americans will also mention it.
So how do Americans want to suppress us or completely stop us from challenging him? There is only one best and fastest way: to bring European countries together to fight or suppress us. This will have the fastest and most obvious effect, and we can give us a critical hit in terms of economy.
But the current fact is: European countries are not willing to be tied up by Americans to deal with us. This can be seen clearly in the recent performance of the Germans.
After all, we have no essential conflict of interest with Europe, and the two sides have close exchanges in supply chains and economic and trade. There is no need for Europe to be led by Americans to achieve the strategic goals of the United States for Americans.
Once Russia completely loses its threat to Europe after this conflict, Europeans will be even more reluctant to be tied up with the Americans to suppress our "chariot". In the future, the EU may become more independent and more distance from Americans.
or above is the reason and purpose of Americans starting to contact Russia recently. Of course, this only represents my personal opinion. To put it bluntly: the United States and Russia do not want to fight endlessly like this, nor do they want to escalate the conflict infinitely.
Russia doesn’t want to fight anymore because of: the problem of strength and internal pressure. The Americans also want to have a ceasefire because they keep Russia to threaten Europe, and the Americans have big things to do - we are their ultimate goal.
But I want to say that both sides are still exploring, and both sides will not show off so early or talk about their last bottom line so early. However, both sides have already had such demands and demands. This is something worth paying attention to, after all, it has a great relationship with us.
