As the G20 leaders' summit approaches, whether Russian Presidents Putin and US Presidents Biden will meet during this period and make compromises on the Russian-Ukrainian war has become a topic of concern to the global media.
Recently, Indonesian Ambassador to Russia Jose Tavarez said in an interview that if Putin decides to attend the G20 summit, then Indonesia will arrange a meeting between him and Biden.
Tavares said that Indonesia has experience in these matters. During the war between Vietnam and Cambodia, Indonesia arranged a meeting between the leaders of both sides. Such meetings do not ensure that the problem is resolved, but a channel for communication between the two sides is conducive to easing the situation.
But it is one thing that Indonesia is willing to arrange, and whether Putin and Biden are willing to meet is another thing.
Judging from the current development situation of the Russian-Ukrainian war, the two sides obviously have no atmosphere of meeting.
On the one hand, Russia is using drones to launch a large-scale crackdown on Ukraine's domestic infrastructure and energy facilities, which has caused the Ukrainian economy to suffer a heavy blow, but it has also scared EU , making the "Russia terrorism" even more serious.
On the other hand, the US mid-term congressional election is approaching, and during the Biden administration, internal affairs and diplomacy can be said to be a mess. Although the Russian-Ukraine war is not popular at the moment, as long as it is still fighting, it proves that Biden is at least maintaining the "dignity" of the United States. Once relations with Russia are eased and even urged Ukraine to cease the war, it is equivalent to accepting the fact that he lost to Russia.
This will be fatal for the Democratic midterm elections. Republican will definitely attack the Biden administration and be involved in a meaningless war. Apart from wasting a lot of money to aid Ukraine, it did not get any benefits, and it also made the United States lose people in front of the whole world. Biden is definitely not willing to compromise with Russia at a special time node such as
.
The territory that Russia has annexed is impossible to give up. Biden cannot and dares to give in because of the congressional election. The fundamental position of the two sides is conflicting. At this time, the meeting cannot solve the problem at all. Instead, it is easy for the other party to see it as a manifestation of being unable to hold on and actively compromise.
Therefore, although the Indonesian government said it would make active arrangements, according to the current situation, the hope of Biden and Putin's meeting is slim.
Not long ago, Biden and Putin both expressed their opinions, believing that there is no opportunity to meet with each other.
Of course, the situation of the Russian-Ukraine war is changing at any time, especially the G20 summit was held after the US Congress election, which provides the possibility for the emergence of variables.
Recently, Russia has continued air strikes on targets in Ukraine, which has damaged Ukraine's morale. The Ukrainian army won the counterattack in , Khlsong, and other places, which also put a lot of pressure on Russia. General Surovijin, who had just taken over as the commander-in-chief of the Russian "Special Operation", said that the situation in some areas may be very tense in the future.
, a state where both sides are under heavy pressure on the battlefield, will inevitably bring a result, that is, high-intensity combat operations may not last long. Whether it is Ukraine's counterattack to make huge progress, including taking Khlsong back, or Russia holding on to the front, using large-scale firepower to resist Ukraine's counterattack, and completely disintegrating the fighting spirit of the Ukrainian army. Both results of
may appear, and the probability of appearing in the next month is still very high. If the fighting spirit of either side collapses, the overall situation of the Russian-Ukrainian war will naturally change.
At that time, whether it is Russian President Putin or US President Biden, they may change their attitude towards peace talks, providing possibilities for meetings between the two sides.
Judging from the situation in the United States, the congressional election is November 8 and the G20 summit is after November 15. In other words, when the G20 Leaders' Summit is officially held, the US Congress election has ended.
At that time, Biden no longer had to consider the Democratic Party's election situation. Whether the Republican Party wins or the Democratic Party wins, the outcome has been decided. The US foreign policy can actually get rid of the influence of internal affairs and focus on American interests.
Now the interests of the United States are that Russia and Ukraine continue to fight, the probability of war expanding is high, and the risk of the United States being forced to be involved has also increased rapidly. Moreover, the Biden administration is under fiscal pressure and there is not much money to continue to aid Ukraine.
From this perspective, the United States may still agree to the meeting between Biden and Putin.
To sum up, from the moment, even if Indonesia actively promotes it, the meeting between Biden and Putin is unlikely to be great. However, due to the ever-changing situation in the Russian-Ukrainian war, by the time the G20 summit was held, it is hard to say whether the two were willing to meet or not.
