UK UnHerd website article on October 18, original title: The United States attempted to sanction China but failed
The United States has recently begun to strictly restrict the export of advanced semiconductors to China. At first glance, it seems strange that the United States imposes such export bans. First of all, China is the second largest semiconductor export market in the United States, accounting for nearly 15% of its total exports. Moreover, the ban also looks contrary to its self-identity as a country that promotes and benefits from global business activities.
When explaining this policy to the world, the United States did not let the Secretary of Commerce speak, but instead let US President's Assistant for National Security Affairs Sullivan over. And economic considerations don't seem to be Sullivan's primary agenda. In fact, his remarks remind people of the Cold War era.
"China's confidence at home and abroad is driving a non-free vision of competing with the West across the economic, political, security and technology fields," Sullivan said. "It is the only competitor that has the intention to reshape the international order and has the growing ability to do so."
The United States is afraid of China. There is no other way to interpret Sullivan's statement. The United States is not just afraid of China, it also tear down the script to resist what it believes is the "China threat." Unlike Russia, China has never "invaded" other countries, but the Biden administration is imposing sanctions on China. It is a capricious act, and there is no doubt that other countries around the world are paying close attention and figuring out what will trigger the United States to sanction them.
This ban is both punitive and likely to be counterproductive. It not only prohibits the export of US-made semiconductors to China, but also licensing requirements for foreign-made chips that use US tools and software in the design and manufacturing process. The stimulus this has been obvious for other countries: If a country's chips want to gain a broad market without restrictions, it must shift from American tools and software to using other alternatives.
legislation also imposes restrictions on cooperation between U.S. citizens and Chinese chip manufacturers. This means that Americans' motivation for entering the semiconductor industry will be weakened. The legislation will also have a negative impact on U.S. chip research and development. American economist David Goldman estimates that the ban will cause five times the damage to capital investment in the semiconductor industry than the moderate subsidies the industry receives.
The behavior of the United States is becoming more and more like a sudden discovery of this new multipolar world and is responding in panic. Instead of evaluating this new world and trying to find a place in it, it seems to attempt to make it disappear with radical but ultimately futile legislative interventions.
"Our goal is not to force our partners to be consistent with our position on every issue," Sullivan said. "We are not going to divide the world into a rigid camp." In fact, the United States seems to be trying to have both. But it greatly overestimated its ability to achieve any of these goals.
A few days after the legislation was released, the German Chancellor announced that "decoupling" from China was the "wrong answer" and locked in the trip to Beijing in November this year. This is a wise move, and the United States should follow suit.
(author Philip Pilkington, translated by Wang Huicong)
