" Belarusian will the army appear alongside the Russian army in Ukraine's trenches?"
-The US Napa Valley Journal website asked such a question on the 11th and explained that this is because Belarus once again accused Ukraine of "plans to attack Belarus" this week and announced the formation of a "joint force" with the Russian army to deploy it on the border with Ukraine, "this has raised concerns about whether the Belarusian army will join the Russian-Ukrainian conflict."
Belarusian President Lukashenko announced the news that Russia and Belarus formed a "joint force" and it has been two days since the Moscow side has not yet come out to confirm the matter.
According to Reuters , two days ago, this Monday, Lukashenko publicly stated that he had agreed to the request of Russian President Putin to deploy a joint Russian-Belarusian force on the White-Ukraine border in northern Ukraine, and had "started assemblies two days ago" - Reuters said that this time point coincided with the bombing of the Crimea Bridge that occurred last Saturday.
Lukashenko also accused "The strike plan against Belarus' territory in Ukraine is not only in discussion, but also in preparation." "Their (Ukraine) masters encouraged them to launch a war against Belarus and drag us into the war."
He also said: "We have been preparing for this for decades. If necessary, we will respond."
" The picture above shows the tank troops participating in the Belarusian National Day parade.
On Tuesday, Ukrainian President Zelensky said at the G7 video summit that Kiev has no plan to take military action against Belarus. He said it was Moscow "that was trying to drag Belarus directly into this war."
Belarus has a 1,000-kilometer border with northwestern Ukraine, while the Belarusian border is only about 90 kilometers closest to Kiev, the capital of Ukraine. Ukrainian military analyst Zhidanov told Associated Press that if the Belarusian army participates in the battle, their target mission will be cities in western and northwestern Ukraine such as Lviv and Lutsk , which are also the main transportation hubs for Western military supplies.
A schematic diagram of the geographical location of Ukraine, Belarus, Russia and other neighboring countries on the website of the Economist. The blue one in the picture is NATO countries.
However, the latest report of the Associated Press analyzed that the Belarusian army may have little impact on the Ukrainian war.
The Associated Press said Russia has used its long-time dependent ally Belarus as a "clustering place to send troops and missiles to Ukraine." Analysts say that if Belarus’ “small, inexperienced troops” are involved, these troops may help Moscow cut off some critical transportation access, but “may not significantly improve the Russian army’s capabilities on the battlefield.”
Reuters reported this week that Belarusian troops have about 60,000. Earlier this year, Belarus deployed six battalions of tactical teams to the border area, totaling thousands. The Associated Press evaluated that Lukashenko's army had "only 45,000 people", including conscripted soldiers - and mostly lacking experience. Some military experts believe that Minsk can currently deploy only 20,000 professional contract soldiers. The report said that although the Belarusian army held regular exercises, it has not participated in the battle since World War II .
Lawrence Rearden, a professor of political science at the University of New Hampshire in the United States, analyzed in an interview with the US " News Weekly" this week that although Lukashenko will continue to allow Russian troops to assemble on the White-Ukrainian border, "it is unlikely that he will call on his own army to join the war."
Belarusian Defense Minister Khlenin said on the 11th that the mission of deploying Belarus' "joint forces" is "purely defensive" and aims to deal with the situation near the border.
In an air strike launched by the Russian army on Monday on the entire Ukraine, the Ukrainian Air Force Command claimed to have shot down two " Iranian -made drones launched from Belarus" and accused Moscow of "sending drones from Belarus." European Commission warned Minsk on Monday to "stop allowing Moscow to use Belarus as a launch pad to attack Ukraine" and threatened to impose new sanctions on Belarus.
How many military bases do Russia have in Belarus? Wikipedia introduction is two: Baranovich's air base and Vereika's naval communications center. According to information released by the Russian legal portal, Putin just signed a law on September 24 to approve the agreement signed by the Russian and Belarus governments on October 20, 2021 to extend the use period of these two Russian military bases in Belarus for 25 years.
Since the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, Western media have continuously reported that Russia has added "military bases" and "training centers" in Belarus, but none of them have been officially confirmed by Russia and Belarus.
