written/Little Tiger Knife Nine Life Knife
After the referendum in 2014, will Scotland launch an independence referendum again?
The UK Supreme Court is holding a hearing on the possibility of a new referendum on Scotland's independence. The Brexit lawsuit is still continuing, the deadlock between Northern Ireland and Northern Ireland and "breaking away from the UK" has not been resolved, and Scotland is about to start "independence" again, and the shadow of division has always hovered over the British Isle.
The cost of living crisis caused by inflation, and the recent concerns about whether the recession has arrived due to the three-time British stock and bond exchange rate has caused the arrival of the recession. These more serious questions are still coming. The prospects for the UK seem to be in a fog.
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Today and tomorrow, the British Supreme Court held a hearing on the possibility of a new referendum on Scottish independence.
And yesterday, the current Chief Minister of Scotland's local government and leader of the Scottish National Party Nikola Sturgeon announced at the annual party meeting: If the British Supreme Court allows it, Scotland will hold its second independence referendum on October 19 next year.
Dorothy Bain, the top Scottish legal official who participated in the hearing, told the British Supreme Court that the issue of Scotland's independence was a "living and important issue."
But when will the result be produced? The judges involved believe it may take "months" for the court to issue a ruling.
Regarding the Scottish referendum, most of the titles of foreign media yesterday were "Scotland decided to hold an independence referendum next year without the consent of the London authorities." What's going on?
It turns out that in June this year, Sturgeon claimed that he would hold the second referendum on Scotland's independence on October 19, 2023. But the British government insists that only UK parliament can give the green light to any new independence referendum. The Constitution stipulates that only London has the final say in this matter, and Edinburgh has no authority.
Scotland wants to be independent, but it doesn't leave the table of the British Prime Minister , so it can only go to the table of the British Supreme Court.
Sturgeon believes that the lack of autonomy is the root of Scotland's dilemma. The "suspense and difficulties brought by the London government have put hundreds of thousands of people into poverty" and become part of the "failed" British economy and face greater risks than independence.
She also believes that Scotland will use oil income and borrowing capabilities to build a fund that can invest up to £20 billion in the first decade of autonomy.
Facing the hearing, Sturgeon was very firm at the time. She said sarcastically: "If the British government respects Scottish democracy, this hearing will not be necessary, but the British Parliament does not have such respect."
Sturgeon also made harsh words. If the Supreme Court rejects the referendum, the "last means" will be used: In the 2024 British national election, the Scottish National Party will only regard whether Scotland should be independent as its campaign platform, making the election a "de facto referendum."
Most media outside the UK are on the sidelines of this, and the UK also has different opinions on whether to hold an independence referendum.
Sturgeon's critics accused her of being "obsessed with" constitutional issues, and that the focus of the leader should be to boost the economy and help the people cope with the energy crisis, rather than empty talk.
, and supporters firmly believe that Scotland's oil fields in North Sea , world-famous whiskey , textiles, and various banking and financial services, Scotland's independence is the best choice.
This time it was a second referendum because Scotland held a referendum on the issue of leaving the UK in 2014. At that time, 55% of Scottish voters favored staying and 44% favored leaving the UK.
Now, Scotland demands a new referendum, mainly because Brexit .Scotland said that the decision to leave the EU violated the wishes of the Scottish people who wanted to stay in EU , so they had to leave the UK.
In the 2016 Brexit referendum, 62% of Scottish voters opposed Brexit, and only 38% agreed.
In fact, the sound of Scottish independence has never disappeared.
Those who support Scottish independence believe that Scotland should decide its own future and should not be tied to the entire United Kingdom. They believe that Scotland's "Brexit" is a best example.
However, in the 2017 British general election, the Scottish National Party led by Sturgeon lost 21 seats, and Sturgeon could only suspend the plan for the independence referendum.
By 2019, she re-demanded an independence referendum and expressed her hope to achieve it within two years, but the epidemic has postponed this timeline.
Last year, the event seeking to hold an independence referendum began again. Parliamentary elections were held in Scotland last May. Before the election began, the Scottish National Party and the Green Party said that if the majority of votes were won in parliamentary elections, an independence referendum plan would be launched.
election results were released, the Scottish National Party and the Green Party won the most votes and occupied the majority of seats in the Scottish local council.
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British Prime Minister Tras once said during the campaign that she firmly opposed Scotland's second referendum after taking office.
But now it seems that no matter what Trass' attitude is, the option for the second referendum has been put on the table.
No matter what the result is this time, it will be regarded as another impact and challenge to the new British Prime Minister Trass.
According to the latest poll by the polling agency YouGov in October, the current support rate of the ruling Conservative Party in the UK is only 22%, while the support rate of the opposition Labor Party has exceeded half, reaching 52%. In addition, 53% of respondents believe that Tras should resign as prime minister.
It has only been a month since Tras took office.
A month ago, when Tras took office, he ambitiously formed a cabinet and proposed a "mini" budget, including a series of tax cuts;
A month later, the "mini" budget went bankrupt, and there was a disagreement between Tras and his cabinet ministers. The back-cemetery of the British Parliament Conservative MPs began to submit distrust of the Prime Minister to the Office of the Chairman of the 1922 Committee, and even media exposed that some government officials of lower levels would resign within a few weeks.
From The division and betrayal within the Conservative Party , the reform was defeated at the beginning, and the popularity plummeted...Tras' dream of becoming the "Iron Lady" seems to be dim.
Tras wants to be the "Iron Lady" again, but today's Britain is no longer the United Kingdom during the Thatcher period.
At present, not only is Scotland going to vote for a referendum to "get out of the UK", but Northern Ireland is also calling for "unification" into Ireland to .
After the UK's Brexit, it has been difficult for the two sides to reach an agreement on the issue of the "Northern Ireland Protocol". The "Northern Ireland Protocol" is part of the UK's "Brexit" agreement. According to the UK's "Brexit" agreement, the Northern Ireland region remains within the European single market and the EU customs union, but this arrangement has led to the establishment of checkpoints between the Northern Ireland region and the British Isle of Great Britain, which has exacerbated the conflict between the pro-British factions and the independent factions in the Northern Ireland region.
On May 7 this year, the Northern Ireland regional election was released. The nationalist party that advocates "de-Britishness" won the most seats and became the largest party in the parliament for the first time.
Sinn Fein won 27 of the 90 seats in Northern Ireland, while the Democratic Unified Party, which originally dominated the Northern Ireland Parliament, won only 24 seats.
This means that Sinn Fein, which was originally a disadvantaged party in Northern Ireland, will be eligible to serve as the Chief Minister of Northern Ireland. This is the first time that this position has been held by an Irish nationalist since the founding of Northern Ireland. In response, the Vice Chairman of Sinn Fein said with great excitement: "This has opened a new era."
At that time, the " Guardian " commented, "Northern Ireland has fallen into a political crisis. The victory of Sinn Fein may put Northern Ireland's "de-British" referendum on the agenda."
On the one hand, Sinn Fein has always advocated Northern Ireland to leave the UK.
Sinn Fein had a great influence on Ireland, and it was their proposition of force that prompted Ireland to break away from Britain's independence. It was under the influence of Sinn Fein that Northern Ireland had always wanted to break away from Britain because Sinn Fein was more willing to achieve Ireland's unification.
On the other hand, Sinn Féin had previously organized Northern Ireland's separation from the UK.
On March 14, 2017, the Sinn Fein Party of Northern Ireland organized a referendum on independence, but as the second largest party in Northern Ireland, they found it difficult to overcome this juncture of the British government, because only after the British government approves the referendum on independence in Northern Ireland can the "de-British" process be officially started.
Next, Sinn Fein has become the leader of Northern Ireland, and they are bound to further advance the "de-British" process in Northern Ireland.
Faced with various domestic pressures, Tras once again demonstrated his political qualities of "very easy to turn around" on Northern Ireland issue .
On October 6, Tras attended the first summit of the "European Political Community". A EU official said in a speech to leaders of other European countries, Tras said the UK will maintain long-term relations with the European continent.
According to the Irish Deputy Prime Minister, there is a possibility of an agreement between the UK and the EU on Northern Ireland in the next few weeks. The Irish foreign minister met with the British Foreign Secretary . The two sides also said they would work closely on the Brexit, the Northern Ireland Agreement and the Russian-Ukrainian conflict.
Tras had previously made a tough statement during the campaign that he would continue to adhere to the British government's tough stance on the Northern Ireland issue, but now, Tras' attitude has taken another 180-degree sharp turn.
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Is it really possible for Scotland to hold another referendum next year?
is unlikely.
In the 2014 referendum, whether in favor or against, both camps said that the Scottish independence referendum was "the only one chance in this life" and encouraged voters to come out and vote.
Former British Prime Minister Johnson Previously stated that the Scottish independence referendum should be a referendum of "only once in a lifetime".
He gave an example, saying that in 1975, the British referendum decided to stay in the European Community (the predecessor of the EU), and in 2016, the British referendum decided to leave the EU. The two referendums were more than 40 years apart, which is the ideal interval.
Do Scottish voters support "de-English"?
According to recent poll results, 41% of Scots support independence from the UK, while 59% object. This also means that even if the referendum is held, it is still possible that it will be the same as the last time.
But it is certain that the Scottish National Party led by Sturgeon will not give up easily.
Scottish independence is the most important card for the National Party to attract voters, and organizing a referendum during its tenure has become a political goal of Sturgeon. After all, the 2014 Scottish referendum was organized by the previous party leader Salmond.
Therefore, Scotland's independence will continue to be a headache on the desktop of 10 Downing Street for the expected future.
Not only that, the number one challenge facing Britain is economic stagnation and the cost of living crisis, and the most violent inflation fire in decades is burning in London.
The heavy bills and the shadow of division hovered over the Great Britain Island, which was extremely disproportionate to Tras's verbally proclaiming that he would lead Britain to "return to the world".
In the speech of the Conservative Party’s annual meeting on October 5, Tras kept calling for changes and not to maintain the status quo. He mentioned economic growth 29 times without definite measures.
But the problem is that the UK is now in a fog. Faced with the reality that the economic prospects are dark and difficult to see, it is probably not that easy for the British Prime Minister to reshape himself and lead the UK to "return to the world".
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