Taiwan's China Times article on October 7, original title: How to swallow the poison pills of the United States
In the past two years, due to the confrontation between the United States and China, the epidemic, etc., the global semiconductor supply chain, advanced countries regard semiconductors as an important industry in the national security. Japan's Ministry of Economy, Industry and Technology proposed the "semiconductor strategy" last year, the South Korean government also proposed the "K-chip strategy" last year, and EU announced the "Chip Act" in February this year. Even India, which currently relies on imports of almost all semiconductors, is trying to become a global semiconductor center. As for mainland China's efforts to promote the semiconductor industry over the years, it is no problem.
has many factors that affect the future development of the global semiconductor industry, but the US government's all-round confrontation against mainland China is undoubtedly the most critical factor. On the surface, it is to protect the security of the supply chain, revitalize the rise of local semiconductor manufacturing and prevent blockage from the mainland, but various policy measures are nothing more than destroying the stability of the global semiconductor supply chain.
In 2018, the United States and Mexico and Canada signed a trade agreement, which stipulates that if any member state in the agreement reaches a free trade agreement with "non-market economies", other member states can withdraw and establish their own bilateral agreements after 6 months. "Non-market economy country" refers to mainland China. At that time, US Secretary of Commerce Ross called this clause " poison pill clause ". Since then, American poison pills have been hidden in relevant policy measures on the mainland in various ways.
For example, in July this year, the US Congress passed the chip bill, and similar "poison pill clauses" were entrained. For enterprises that receive US subsidies, they are restricted from investing in hostile countries or expanding advanced semiconductor manufacturing within 10 years. Extending bilateral relations to relations with third parties shows that the United States will sacrifice its industries in other countries in order to achieve its goal of encircling the mainland.
According to the goals listed in the US chip fund strategy, the semiconductor industry that the US wants to revive will run through the various generations of product manufacturing from "grandfather-level" to cutting-edge chips, which is simply unrealistic. If you do not start by solving factors that hinder industrial development and establishing an environment that is conducive to industrial competitiveness, and attempt to restore long-lost industries based on a limited budget, it will definitely be futile.
From January to August this year, semiconductor ICs accounted for 38% of Taiwan's exports, and contributed as much as 57% to export growth, which shows the importance of semiconductors to Taiwan's economic growth; and among IC exports, the mainland and Hong Kong accounted for 58%, which also shows that the mainland market occupies a key position in the development of Taiwan's semiconductor industry. The US's policy of high-tech blockade on the mainland has not only had a serious impact on Taiwan's semiconductor exports, but also had a significant impact on mainland Taiwanese businessmen, which is harming Taiwan's interests. In the export of products from Taiwan to the mainland in 2019, 32 Taiwanese companies sold about US$200 billion, mainly the "Fifth Brother Electronics" and are a major user of Taiwan's semiconductor exports. Some of the US sanctions on the mainland will continue to cause problems to the production of these Taiwanese companies.
Faced with major changes in the global semiconductor industry and the US's poisonous measures, where will Taiwan's semiconductor industry go and how downstream industries respond, how can we not come up with a strategic plan? (Author Yin Qiming)▲
