[Text/Richard Jawad Hedalion Translated by Observer Network by Guanqun]
As the European crisis continues to escalate, Russian President Vladimir Putin approved the issuance of the first national military mobilization order after World War II . Putin hopes to reverse Russia's decline in the Ukrainian battlefield by recruiting hundreds of thousands of reserve soldiers.
He also expressed support for holding referendums in the Russian occupation of Lugansk, Donetsk, Khlsson and Zaporoze provinces to pave the way for their incorporation into the Russian Federation. "Our historical tradition is to...stop...those who threaten to dismember and enslave our country," he said.
He argued that he made this decision to win a life-and-death struggle against the "whole West". Over the past few months, the "whole west" has provided a lot of weapons and financial assistance to Kiev . As the energy crisis intensifies, Russia's latest moves may deepen the degree of intervention within Europe on the issue of NATO 's intervention in the Russian-Ukrainian conflict.
Although there are a large number of hawkish figures against China in major European governments, for many European countries, they are increasingly unable to fight against China and Russia on both sides. China's subtle stance on the Ukrainian conflict, its growing influence on Russia and its deep dependence on China and the West's economy will continue to affect EU-China relations.
China-Europe Express
Over the past six months, the West has shown amazing unity, imposed comprehensive sanctions on Russia and provided Ukraine with the most advanced weapons. However, cracks have begun to appear.
French President Emmanuel Macron , who has always positioned itself as the actual leader of Europe, recently emphasized the importance of "European unification" and warned " war dealers in several countries east of us."
Compared with the caution of major EU members such as France and Germany, Baltic and Eastern European members tend to take a more hawkish stance, including a complete ban on issuing visas to Russian citizens.
They have also been the most active participants in improving Ukraine's defense capabilities. For example, Estonia and Poland are both NATO members. Poland is the EU country that provides the most military aid to Ukraine. The country is currently purchasing weapons in large quantities, partly to supplement its country's bottom-up arsenal; while Estonia has donated one-third of its defense budget, more than other NATO members donated.
Sanctions on Russian energy have brought serious economic consequences, and NATO Eastern European members have shown a willingness to bear the price out of deep-rooted fear of the Russian threat.
The political situation of major European countries is completely different. As the cost of living continues to rise, which has triggered large-scale protests, Italy elected the first far-right government after the war. In public, Georgia Meloni, who is about to become Italy's next prime minister, supports severe sanctions against Russia and vows to revisit Italy-China economic and trade ties.
But it is well known that her allies Salvini (Northern Union) and Berlusconi ( Italian Power Party ) are more sympathetic to Russia. As the European energy crisis gradually intensifies, the price of natural gas has risen 10 times in recent months, and the region's right-wing leaders will almost certainly fight the sanctions of Russia more vigorously.
Putin recently escalated the scale of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict and weaponized Russia's energy exports, which will deepen differences within Europe. Crucially, this will make it increasingly difficult for Europe to fight against China and Russia, for at least three reasons.
First of all, China has a delicate position on the Ukrainian crisis. Although China has agreed with Moscow's anti-NATO rhetoric and increased imports of Russian energy, Beijing also advocates a peaceful resolution of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict.
After Putin issued a military mobilization order, China immediately called on "the relevant parties to achieve a ceasefire and stop the war through dialogue and negotiation, and find a way to take into account the reasonable security concerns of all parties as soon as possible."
During the Uzbekistan " Shanghai Cooperation Organization Summit ", Putin rarely admitted that Beijing had "questions and concerns" about the direction of the Ukrainian war.
This leads to the second reason: Europe recognizes that China's influence on Russia is becoming increasingly greater. In a recent interview with the Post, Ukrainian President Zelensky welcomed direct dialogue with Chinese leaders, emphasizing that China has become the key to determining whether the Russian economy can sustain.
Zelensky said, "I believe that if Russia loses the Chinese market, then Russia will feel that its economy has been completely isolated." He also pointed out that China has the ability to push Putin towards peace.
Zelensky called on China to mediate the conflict between Russia and Ukraine
Earlier this year, EU foreign policy head Joseph Borel also admitted that the country that is most capable of mediating the conflict "must be China."
The third important reason is that the economy of Europe and China is extremely interdependent. This degree of interdependence may deepen as the West attempts to reduce its dependence on Russia's energy and mitigate climate change.
In recent years, China has become a leader in R&D of a new generation of technologies and plays an indispensable role in industries such as electric vehicles , which is crucial to the West's transformation of transportation modes.
Cobalt element is the basic element that makes up the lithium-ion battery of electric vehicles. About 85% of the cobalt element used in batteries in the world is provided by Chinese refineries. Just a Chinese company (Contemporary Ampere Technology) produces one-third of the world's electric vehicle batteries.
Western leaders like Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutt insist that building strong economic ties with China is crucial to maintaining long-term strategic engagement relations between China and Europe and maintaining European economic stability.
China is expected to become a mediator of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict and an important economic partner. The growing conflict between Europe and Russia may further strengthen China's potential position in many ways. Although Europe's hostility towards the Eastern powers is growing, Europe also admits that now all roads lead to Beijing.
( Observer.com is translated by Guanqun from Hong Kong's South China Morning Post)
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