When South Korean President Yoon Seok-yue attended the NATO summit, his chief economic secretary Choi Sang-mok made an eye-catching statement. He said: "The era of (South Korea) achieving export economic prosperity through China is over."
This sentence was said by Choi Sang-moo in Madrid, Spain, but the European media did not pay too much attention to it. Instead, after it spread to Asia, it aroused widespread public discussion.
Especially in South Korea, both the political and business circles have expressed concerns about Choi Sang-moo's "decoupling from China" remarks. However, according to a set of data released by Korean media after interviews, China has become South Korea's largest trading partner for many consecutive years. South Korea's trade with China accounts for about 25% of its total foreign trade .
Moreover, South Korea has been in a trade surplus position all year round in the process of doing business with China. In short, South Korea not only has a large scale of trade with China, but also obtains huge benefits from it.
Take the tourism industry as an example. Half of South Korea’s annual tourism industry GDP is created by Chinese tourists.
If the person who said "decoupling from the Chinese economy" was South Korean President Yoon Seok-yue himself, it would actually be nothing, because he may not necessarily understand economic issues very well, and it is more likely that he made such a statement out of a political perspective and to cater to Looking at Americans is in line with Yin Xiyue's unequivocal "pro-American stance."
But the person who said this is the chief economic secretary of the South Korean Presidential Office . It is impossible for him to understand economics, let alone how dependent South Korea is on China-South Korea trade.
On this basis, Choi Sang-mu’s statement is worth pondering. What is going on in South Korea?
First of all, we must admit that Choi Sang-mok said, "The era of South Korea's export prosperity through China is over." This sentence is true to a certain extent, but it is only part of the truth.
Because it is not just South Korea's export boom that has ended, but the era of high growth of the entire South Korean economy. Today South Korea does not rely on exports to China to achieve prosperity, but it relies on exports to China to prevent rapid decline.
The core problem here is not China, but South Korea's own economic problems.
To put it bluntly, South Korea has lost its competitive advantage over Japan, China, and even Southeast Asia, India and other countries in the core manufacturing industry.
itself does not have a huge market or abundant resources, so it inevitably falls into the trap of economic decline.
This problem had already emerged during the Asian financial crisis in 1998. However, South Korea was lucky at that time and was catching up with China's rapid economic development. Therefore, South Korea relied on exports to China and maintained its status for nearly 15 years. of prosperity.
But this prosperity is based on China's late start and the technological generation gap between the two sides. When China's manufacturing industry gradually develops and South Korea is unable to compete with Chinese companies in terms of cost, innovation capabilities, technology and capital, it will naturally be slowly squeezed out of the market.
What's even worse is that since China is the "world's factory" and occupies an important position in the global industrial chain, when Korean manufacturing cannot take advantage of the Chinese market, it means that it has been abandoned by the global market. .
This is the core reason why South Korea's economic growth has slowed down and unemployment has risen in recent years. To put it more vividly, since the Moon Jae-in era, every South Korean president has faced the same dilemma as Japan, how to re-find his or her position in the global market.
Before there is a breakthrough in technology, the current era is not very friendly to other countries except China and the United States. Because both high-end technology and capital are in the hands of the United States, and no one in the world can compete with it.
The mid- and downstream manufacturing and markets are in the hands of China. At least in the next 10 years, no small and medium-sized countries can compete with China.
Western economists say that this is the era of the strong, which actually makes sense. Japan, including and the European Union , are also facing the problems that South Korea is facing now, but South Korea is caught between China and the United States. My body is small, so the feeling is naturally more intense.
The question is, faced with this situation, can "decoupling" from China help South Korea get out of the predicament? This is obviously unrealistic. Choi Sang-mu said that South Korea should strengthen trade with Europe to replace the contribution of China-South Korea trade to the South Korean economy.
The problem is that the problems that is plaguing South Korea's economy are their own problems. can't find a way to change this. If it can't compete with China in the Asian market, can it be used in the European market?
"If you are poor, you will change, and if you change, you will be successful." But you can't change blindly. Like South Korea and Japan, the most fundamental problem of is that the economy is too deeply controlled by the United States. The major chaebols seem to be extremely powerful, but most of the profits earned every year are taken away by Wall Street capital. The remaining wealth that can truly be retained in South Korea is very limited.
The core factor for a country to ensure its competitiveness is to be willing to spend money to invest in its own technology. In fact, from a social perspective, South Korea's investment in technology research and development accounts for a very high proportion of GDP.
However, these investments were also made by the main chaebols controlled by American capital. Of course, the fruits produced were still picked up by several major chaebols.
To put it bluntly, South Korea is like a senior manager in the United States. He makes a lot of money every year, but doesn't leave much for himself.
When the American company was booming, South Korea, as a senior manager, naturally had great energy. But now that the US economy is in trouble, no matter how hard South Korea struggles, what effect will it have?
Therefore, if Yin Xiyue really wants to save South Korea, instead of engaging in the "decoupling from China" theory, it is better to study how to break through the chaebol monopoly and support some local companies that can really make the decision.
