On June 30, local time, when NATO was discussing dealing with Russia in Madrid, the Russian Ministry of Defense suddenly announced that Russian troops had withdrawn from the strategic Snake Island in the Black Sea that day. Although Kiev claimed that the Russian army evacuated Snake Island under the attack of the Ukrainian army, and the commander-in-chief of the Ukrainian army even exaggeratedly called the Russian army's active withdrawal as "liberation", the truth of the matter seems to have been revealed. News of the subsequent release surfaced.
After the Russian Ministry of Defense announced that Russian troops had withdrawn from Snake Island, officials from the Zaporozhye Oblast in Ukraine released the news that Ukraine's first grain cargo ship had left the port of Berdyansk ( Mariupo) controlled by the Russian army. 7,000 tons of grain will be shipped to friendly countries at the port on the southeastern coast of Seoul on the Sea of Azov. -related security will be provided by ships at the Novorossiysk naval base of the Russian Black Sea Fleet.
Ukrainian grain ships are exported through Russian-controlled ports and are provided with security by the Russian military. It can be deduced from this news that Russia and Ukraine have reached an agreement on grain exports, and the withdrawal of troops from Shedao should also be the result of multi-party coordination.
After the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, Ukraine, as an important food exporter, has a big problem in how to transport food out of Ukraine because its main ports are blocked. According to data from Kyiv, Ukraine has exported only 4 million tons of grain since December 24. Before that, Ukraine's ports exported an average of 5-6 million tons of grain every month.
Many parties have been arguing about this for a long time, Biden even said that "Russia is the culprit of the food crisis and inflation". Putin responded more than once, Russia will not block Ukrainian grain exports, and no one will stop the Ukrainian army from demining ports and releasing grain-carrying ships. Russia will ensure the safety of the grain transportation process.
The Ukrainian grain shipped out of the Berdyansk port and the Russian military escort confirmed that Putin has fulfilled his promise.
In fact, since 6, Russia and Ukraine have started negotiations on grain exports under the mediation of Turkey , United Nations and other parties. On June 28, United Nations Secretary-General Guterres stated that the negotiations had reached a "critical moment."
Just two days later, the Russian army withdrew from Snake Island. The two events are inevitably related. When the Russian Ministry of Defense announced the incident, it used one word - "out of goodwill."
As mentioned earlier, Snake Island is a strategic location on the Black Sea. The island is only 140 kilometers away from Odessa.. Odessa is currently the only sea outlet under Kiev's control. If Ukraine wants to export food through its own territory, it can only go here. Of course, the premise is that the Ukrainian army has to clean up the mines by itself. Controlling Snake Island means controlling Ukraine's only maritime export. At the same time, it is also the best springboard for attacking Odessa. In order to restart the Black Sea grain export channel, abandoning Snake Island can be said to be a huge concession for Moscow.
Now that the background is clear, we can boldly guess how Russia and Ukraine bargained when coordinating grain exports. The two sides must have reached some tacit understanding to ensure that food exports from the Black Sea are safe. Ukraine used the excuse that Russian troops guarding Snake Island would affect the security of Ukrainian food exports and made the withdrawal of Russian troops from Snake Island one of the conditions for negotiation. Odessa is full of mines, and Ukrainian grain can only be exported from ports on the northern coast of the Sea of Azov in the early days.
I have to say that in this process, Russia has indeed retained the responsibility and dignity that a big country should have. Ukraine's subsequent so-called "liberation" of Snake Island fell short.
On one side, Russia and Ukraine are negotiating conditions, and on the other side, the United Nations is urging Russia and Ukraine to export food as soon as possible. The United Nations has issued warnings many times that the world will face the most serious food crisis in 50 years. data shows that Russia and Ukraine are the core grain exporters in the world. The exports of wheat and barley from the two countries account for 30% of the total global trade, corn exports account for 20%, and sunflower oil exports account for even more. 80% of total global exports. Ukraine is also known as the "breadbasket of Europe".
In fact, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine affects not only Ukraine's grain exports. Due to European and American sanctions, Russia's bulk commodity exports, including grains, are also greatly affected.
On the same day that Ukraine's first grain transport ship sailed out of the port of Berdyansk, the Egyptian government announced that they had signed an 815,000-ton wheat purchase agreement with Russia, France, Romania and Bulgaria . Among the four countries, three are countries along the Black Sea. This can prove that Russia and Ukraine have reached a consensus on ensuring the Black Sea grain export channel.
The withdrawal of Russian troops from the Black Sea also has military significance. The next battlefield in the Russia-Ukraine conflict will be mainly concentrated on Ukrainian soil. Even if it wants to attack Odessa, the Russian army will attack from land. just doesn’t know if this is the tactical change Putin mentioned. As for Kiev licking its face and saying that the Russian army was forced to evacuate under the attack of the Ukrainian army, it can be treated as a joke.
Russia-Ukraine grain exports may alleviate the global food crisis to a certain extent. But it must be pointed out that the Russia-Ukraine conflict is only one of the many factors affecting this global food crisis. The epidemic, supply chain, energy, and comprehensive Western sanctions against Russia have jointly created this crisis. It is not an exaggeration to describe it as a "natural and man-made disaster." As for how many percent are “natural disasters” and what percent are “man-made disasters”, I’m afraid it will never be clear.
