NO.59 Türkiye never really had an easy time with Russia.
Author: Huaiheyu
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Title quote: Erdogan, who originally vowed to prevent Sweden and Finland from joining NATO , finally gave the nod to the two countries to join the alliance. Many people accuse Türkiye of betrayal, but has Türkiye ever had an easy time with Russia?
Turkish President Erdogan
According to the Turkish President’s Office, Sweden and Finland have agreed to lift arms export restrictions to Turkey. Friends who are familiar with Huaiheyu should know that Huaiheyu has previously written about Turkey’s thoughts on preventing Sweden and Finland from joining NATO. Erdogan, who has always liked to walk a tightrope, will not give up any opportunity to gain benefits. Turkey, which had previously had bad relations with the United States and Europe, is bound to take this opportunity to give the West a hard blow.
The Turkish army attacked the PKK armed forces
In addition to the lifting of the arms embargo, the two Nordic countries also chose to give in on the issue of the PKK . Sweden and Finland have previously been critical of Turkey's crackdown on Kurdish militants and have therefore launched an arms embargo against Turkey.
Turkish "political prisoner" Gulen living in the United States.
In addition to the issue of the PKK, the two Nordic countries have also agreed not to provide support to the Turkish "political prisoner" Gulen who has fled to the United States.
Gülen initiated the Gülen movement that swept the Islamic world, also called Gulen movement . The Gülen movement is extremely influential, with participants in schools, newspapers, companies and even within the Turkish government. In July 2016, the Turkish army launched a military coup in order to maintain secularization, but was suppressed by Erdogan. Erdogan's government believes that Gulen, who lives in the United States, was involved in the coup, so it has been demanding Gulen's extradition, but the United States has refused. Since then, the issue of Gulen's extradition has become a thorn in the side between Turkey and the United States and even Western countries, and has been unresolved for a long time.
Erdogan became another beneficiary of the Russia-Ukraine war.
NATO also played a big role in the process of Sweden and Finland persuading Turkey to nod. Previously, the Secretary-General of NATO once said: "Support Turkey's demands" to put pressure on the two Nordic countries. Sure enough, Sweden and Finland accepted almost all of Turkey's demands in a short period of time.
No matter how tortuous the process is, after persuading Turkey, the only thorn in NATO, the path for Sweden and Finland to join NATO has basically been smooth.
The Russia-Ukraine war pushed the two Nordic countries to join NATO. Once the two countries join the alliance, Russia's strategic space in the north will be completely blocked.
Huaiheyu has said before that Sweden and Finland are different from Ukraine. The two Nordic countries are highly similar to Western Europe major countries and the United States in terms of their political systems, domestic culture, religious beliefs, economic development levels, and closeness. Just look at how many times the Swedish and Finnish troops have participated in NATO military exercises. However, no matter how close they are, Russia still has room for diplomacy as long as it is not a NATO country. Nowadays, this space has become smaller and smaller. From the map, the Baltic Sea may become NATO's inland sea in the future.
British F-35 fighter jets are deployed in Estonia.
Currently, NATO countries including the United States, the United Kingdom, Germany, France, Belgium have sent air force and army troops to Lithuania , Estonia and other places. Once NATO troops are permanently stationed in Sweden and Finland, it means that NATO military power will flood the Baltic Sea from all aspects, and any Russian fighter planes and troops taking off or dispatched from this direction will not be able to escape NATO's surveillance. To put it more bluntly, the deployment of the Russian army had already been clearly figured out by NATO before the war started.
The original purpose of sending troops to Ukraine was to curb NATO's further eastward expansion, but in turn it promoted NATO's further eastward expansion and further compressed Russia's strategic space. This is also something that the Kremlin did not expect. From the perspective of hindsight, Russia made two wrong moves.
The Russian army attacked Kiev Airport and ultimately failed.
First, the Kremlin has obviously tasted too much sweetness from the two wars in 2008 and 2014, and seriously underestimated the possible response of Western countries. Perhaps the Kremlin's top officials thought that Western countries would have the same inconsistent stances as the previous two times. Unexpectedly, Ukraine was different from Georgia , and it was also very different from the situation in 2014. The previous two times things happened suddenly, but this time the two sides have been at odds for so long. I am afraid that deep down in their hearts, Western countries have already prepared for the worst. However, Russia's top leaders are still using the same thinking to speculate on the West's reaction, which is really incredible.
Russia’s top management is basically the same as it was in 2014 or even 2008. Perhaps this is one of the reasons why they cannot see new changes.
Second, when Russia did not meet expectations in the first battle (captured Kiev ), it was indeed an unsatisfactory choice to continue fighting. Maybe the Kremlin still had illusions at that time. But soon the Ukrainian army shattered this illusion with its firm will to fight. Originally, Ukraine and Russia were already in contact and negotiating, but Russia ended the peace talks with excessive demands. I don't know if it was due to lack of dignity or other reasons. But the final result was that the Russo-Ukrainian war had a spillover effect within a few months, and the spread of panic pushed Sweden and Finland to join NATO.
It is the best choice for Russia to end the war as soon as possible.
Russia's inability to end the war may not be explained by face. The most likely reason is that this war involves too many factors, which are beyond the control of the Kremlin. To put it more vividly, although you lit the fire, you cannot control the intensity of the fire.
Turkey is considered by many to be a neutral party in the Russo-Ukrainian war.
Because Russia is isolated by Western countries, it has very few supporters in the international community. Therefore, some neutral countries are identified as supporters of Russia by Russia's supporters, including Türkiye. It may also be because the relationship between the United States and Turkey has not been very good in recent years and Turkey has been quarreling with and the EU from time to time. Therefore, some people take it for granted that Turkey is biased towards Russia.
Turkey's economic center Istanbul
A few days ago, Turkey reiterated that it would not impose sanctions on Russia, but that's all. Because Turkey agreed to Sweden and Finland joining NATO just one day later, the so-called reaffirmation that it would not impose sanctions on Russia was more for Moscow to appease it and had no practical significance.
The Turkish army launched a coup in 2016
Many people also cited the Turkish coup on July 15, 2016 as an example, believing that if Moscow had not informed Erdogan, the Turkish army might have succeeded in the coup. It should be said that it makes sense, but Russia only informed Erdogan for its own interests. At that time, the civil war in Syria had been going on for five years. As Russia's last fulcrum in the Middle East, Syria could not give up. Russia's deep intervention must be to deal with the Middle East forces including Turkey.
The Turkish Air Force shot down a Russian Su-25 attack aircraft
Just before this coup, the Russian army Su-25 attack aircraft that was performing combat missions in Syria was shot down by the Turkish army. The relationship between the two countries was once very tense. However, since the coup, the relationship between Russia and Turkey has improved significantly, and there has never been a similar "accidental attack" incident. Turkey, whose relations with the United States have deteriorated, also began to use Russia's power to balance the pressure, so in those years Turkey was often on the wall.
There is no real improvement in the relationship between the two countries, let alone alliance relations.
Not only has the relationship between the two countries not improved in a real sense, there is actually still very fierce competition. Türkiye is deeply involved in the Asia-Afghan conflict in the Caucasus region, which is Russia's traditional sphere of influence.In the end, Azerbaijan supported by Turkey crushed Armenia and won. Although Russia ultimately sent troops to Nagorno-Karabakh to separate the armies of the two countries, Turkey had already laid a nail in the Caucasus .
The Turkish-led organization of Turkic-speaking countries includes many Central Asian countries, and Central Asia is also Russia's traditional sphere of influence.
Deep down in Turkey’s heart, Turkey very much hopes that Russia will be defeated. Otherwise, Russia will not have enough power to confront Turkey in the Middle East, Caucasus and Central Asia. Secondly, if Russia does not fall, it can continue to attract the firepower of the United States and Europe, which is most beneficial to Turkey, the troublemaker in the Middle East.
Russia’s future focus can only be in the European direction.
Once Sweden and Finland join NATO, Russian power will be deeply attracted to Europe. Turkey will be more unscrupulous in digesting the legacy of the post-Soviet era in the Middle East and Caucasus. To a certain extent, Sweden and Finland joining NATO will not hurt Turkey.
Erdogan is constantly controversial, but he is definitely a shrewd politician.
By stumbling upon the way for Sweden and Finland to join NATO, why not do it to gain more benefits for themselves? As for how the declining Russia feels, Erdogan will not consider it.
Conclusion: Turkey has lost a large territory to Russia in history. In the case of conflicting geopolitical interests between the two sides, a continuously weakened Russia is not a bad thing for Turkey. But Turkey must also consider how much use value Turkey will have once Russia completely declines and the United States and Europe no longer worry about the Russian army breaking into the hinterland of Europe from the Black Sea direction.
(pictures from the Internet)
