Regarding the impact and role of the Russian-Ukrainian war, people discuss more from the perspective of global strategy, focus more on Europe, globalization, and focus on free trade and energy crisis . But in fact, the most affected by this war is undoubtedly the parties involved in the war, namely Ukraine and Russia. Considering that Ukraine can only rely on the West to survive in the future, it is no longer meaningful to further discuss the future and future of this country. But what is important is Russia. What will Russia have in this war? Will it be revived or will it sink again?
From Russia's subjective wishes, of course, it is to gain a more favorable position through this war, obtain better development conditions and greater development space. Some people summarize based on this that the Russians' thinking logic and value orientation are really the same as those of us Chinese. If China is in the current position of Russia, it must be to keep a low profile, concentrate on developing the economy, tolerate humiliation, tolerate burdens, not cause trouble or make trouble, to do domestic construction, and to resolutely pursue the strategy of peaceful development. But Russia did the opposite. With the increasing internal and external pressure and coercion, it did not retreat or give in. On the contrary, it still fought against tit and took the initiative, which seemed to be the way for armed rise and war revival.
The problem is, can the road of revival of armed rise and war be made?
Frankly speaking, there is indeed a high degree of uncertainty in Russia's strategic prospects. Now, some people are already talking about the promise of Putin . Legend has it that Putin had such a promise to Russia back then. Give me twenty years to give you a powerful Russia. Someone asked this, what is going on in Russia now? In the eyes of these people, Russia is now suffering from war, and its future is unpredictable, and the situation is quite bad. There are many people in the world today waiting eagerly to see Putin's big jokes and Russian big jokes.
President Putin and Russia under his leadership are indeed facing unprecedented tremendous pressure and the situation is not optimistic. From the perspective of a third party, Russia has three ways of going forward and possibility in the future:
First, achieving limited victory in the Ukrainian War
In the context of Western groups' strong support for Ukraine, the possibility of Russia achieving a comprehensive victory in the Russian-Ukrainian war is no longer there. Now President Putin can only strive for local limited victory, such as a local armistice, reaching a ceasefire agreement, or both sides agree to shelve the eastern Ukrainian region, Russia withdraws its troops, and Ukraine does not enter, and the United Nations dispatches peacekeeping forces or international observers, etc. This situation should be regarded as Russia's limited victory.
Russia, which won limited victory, gains and losses. What it earns is that Russia's strategic deterrence capabilities have thus taken a new level and become more authentic and credible. Russia's strategic rights and interests in the sphere of influence will be effectively guaranteed, and the development space and development conditions will be improved, which will win a certain amount of time, space and opportunities.
But even so, Russia still has to face the strong strategic pressure from the West, and the confrontation and competition with the West will continue fiercely. Russia will not find any other way out and solutions when facing the West.
Secondly, the limited failure of the Ukrainian war
Here we must first explain that the Western group and Ukrainian Zelensky have spoken out that we must completely defeat Russia, disarm its nuclear weapons, let Russia accept the defeat, and let Putin be tried.
In this regard, the author can only say that this is just their wonderful strategic dream, and in fact there is no possibility of realization. In the Russian-Ukraine War, Russia could not be defeated completely and comprehensively. The strength, Putin's wisdom and social foundation could enable it to maintain this bottom line.
But the possibility of Russia suffering from local and limited failure cannot be ruled out.The so-called local and limited failures will include the situation: partially or completely abandoning the Ukrainian Donbas region, and Crimea is also in a crisis situation; humiliating peace talks and accepting political and economic conditions imposed by Western groups; EU and NATO accepting Ukraine, NATO further expands to the Transcaucasus region, recognizes NATO's power to act freely in Eastern Europe, and so on.
If you suffer such failure, the internal and external environment of Russia will become even worse. There may be serious social unrest in the country and serious economic crisis. The interaction between the two will make Russia suffer from crises and the political situation full of variables. President Putin's current regime will be regarded as a failed regime to a considerable extent, so it will be difficult to sustain; in terms of geopolitical security, multiple and large-scale strategic landslides may occur in areas around Russia, including the Transcaucasus , Central Asia, the Far East and other places. The security situation of the Russian country will become more severe. Under such circumstances, Russia's future is more uncertain and its future will become more dangerous and terrifying, which is chilling to consider to a considerable extent.
Third, it has been in the current quasi-war state for a long time
According to the official interpretation of Russia, the ongoing Russian-Ukraine war is not a war launched by Russia, but just a "special military operation". Of course, "special military operation" is easier than war and cannot constitute a war. Perhaps because of this, Russia did not conduct obvious mobilization at home at the beginning of the operation. Later, it was a last resort, and only said it was a "partial mobilization". Of course, now everyone understands that even if Russia uses all its strength, it will be difficult to win a complete victory. If we continue to maintain the current tactic of adding fuel to both sides gradually and step by step on the battlefield, the war may be fought back and forth in this war.
Under this situation, Russia will always be in a quasi-war state, and will continue to cure old injuries and be newly inflicted. Today, it was bombed here and destroyed there, and the cycle was repeated and endless. If a big country falls into this state, it is undoubtedly a disaster, but different ethnic groups have different personalities and their attitudes towards disasters are also very different. They are known as a "combat nation". Russia's ability to bear and endure and endure is indeed extraordinary.
But how long can Russia last after such continuous torture? The variables are also difficult to grasp.
The above three possibilities are all more obvious and realistic possibilities, that is, they are all there, but which one is more likely? This should be a very important strategic prediction. The author believes that most countries around the world will pay great attention to it, and few important countries can avoid lingering in this regard.
In my opinion, to achieve the first possibility, namely, to achieve limited victory, it is likely to be difficult to achieve in Russia's current state. Now, without comprehensive and profound strategic mobilization, Russia will find it difficult to obtain an overwhelming advantage on the battlefield, and without overwhelming advantage on the battlefield, it will be difficult to achieve a limited victory. But if Putin mobilizes comprehensively in Russia, it means a new national war will be launched, and the risks in it are difficult to grasp, so this determination is also difficult, and Putin is still hesitating.
The second and possibility exist dangerously, but the key and key lies in victory or defeat on the battlefield. The key depends on the morale of the people of Russia. If the morale of the people of Russia collapses, failure on the battlefield will be inevitable; if Russia can maintain national unity and maintain people's morale, it is not easy to defeat this nation. At present, Russia's people's morale is sufficient, so relatively speaking, Russia's chances of limited failure are the smallest of the three possibilities.
The third type is more likely. This state is not without precedent. The state between Israel and Pakistan and the current state of Syria are roughly like this. Judging from the current state of Russia and Ukraine and its actual war, these two countries may also fall into this territory tragically.
Russia's success or failure has a huge impact on the global strategic situation and has a stronger impact on China's security environment. Therefore, China is by no means a spectator of the Ukrainian war. The strategic evolution and development of this war are destined to be deeply involved (for this issue, please refer to the author's article "The Russian-Ukrainian War is not unrelated to China"). To this end, China must make preparations in many aspects and multiple ways, and not only make corresponding preparations for Russia's victory, but also make corresponding plans for Russia's failure.
Note: The author of this article is Zhang Zhikun, a core member of the "Qin'an Strategic Think Tank", and is an original work on this platform. In the new year, I wish everyone join hands, overcome the epidemic, curb hegemony, and move towards a better future together.
