Since Brexit , there have been many conflicts within the EU. According to the Spanish newspaper "El Mundo", agreeing to Ukraine becoming an EU candidate country can be regarded as a symbol of "boosting morale", but it is not easy for Ukraine to successfully complete the "road to EU accession".
On June 23, local time, the two-day EU Summer Summit opened in Brussels, Belgium.
President of the European Council Michelle : We have decided to grant EU candidate country status to Ukraine and Moldova.
It only took 115 days from when Ukraine signed its application for EU membership on February 28 to when it obtained candidate country status.
The speed of "European entry" has caused controversy
According to Reuters , Ukraine has benefited from the "fast entry" process, which is equivalent to entering the "fast lane." This is in contrast to the "Western Balkan countries", which are also in eastern Europe and are queuing up.
German Chancellor Scholz: For nearly 20 years, the countries of the Western Balkans have been waiting for the opportunity to become members of the European Union.
The civil war in the Balkans that lasted from the end of the 20th century to the beginning of this century left the most tragic scene in European history. About 20 years ago, the EU tried its best to win over the Western Balkan countries for geopolitical purposes. In February 2016, the Western Balkan country Bosnia and Herzegovina submitted its application for EU membership. Dragan Covic, then Chairman of the Presidency of Bosnia and Herzegovina, It is full of expectation that Bosnia and Herzegovina is expected to obtain candidate country status in early 2017. But to date, the EU has not fulfilled its original commitments.
Chairman of the Presidency of Bosnia and Herzegovina Zaferovic: If there is a country today that should obtain EU candidate country status for geopolitical and geostrategic reasons, it is Bosnia and Herzegovina.
Albania,Serbia,North Macedonia, and Montenegro have become EU candidate countries many years ago, but the negotiations have stalled.
Now, regarding the situation of "jumping in line to enter Europe", Albanian Prime Minister Edi Rama (Edi Rama) can't help complaining that this may be just some kind of "fantasy".
Albanian Prime Minister Edi Rama: 17 years have passed and (North Macedonia) is still waiting to start accession negotiations as an EU candidate country. It even changed the name of the country to do so, but that didn't bring about any change. Just imagine, if you want to change the name of your country in order to join the European Union, would it be acceptable to change it to France or Italy? Albania also waited 8 years. In order to join the European Union,
"Republic of Macedonia" was renamed " Republic of North Macedonia " in February 2019.
At this summit, although Serbia and other countries strongly supported North Macedonia and Albania in starting EU accession negotiations, there was still no progress in the meeting.
Prime Minister of North Macedonia Kovacevski: Let me get straight to the point and say that what is happening now is a very serious problem and has seriously damaged the credibility of the EU.
Serbian President Vucic (Aleksandar Vucic) said directly that the "road to the EU" is unfair to the Balkan countries.
After all, they got the "number plate" in the queue early, but did not get the support of EU member states.
Dutch Prime Minister Rutte: I am worried that this may cause Ukraine to rush for quick results. The (EU) system is also important here, it is not an emotional system but a political system.
The process of joining the EU is very complicated. Simply put, it can be divided into four steps: submitting an application; obtaining candidate country status; starting accession negotiations; and obtaining approval. Since Croatia joined the EU in July 2013, the EU has not admitted new members in the past nine years. On the contrary, the UK's Brexit in 2020 will cause the EU to lose one member.
What price will Europeans pay for Ukraine joining the EU?
President of the European Commission Von der Leyen : Before entering the next stage (accession negotiations), all countries must do their homework.
According to procedure, Ukraine still needs to complete a series of reform tasks set by the European Commission before starting negotiations to enter the European Union.
Germany's "Le Monde" pointed out that government integrity, judicial reform and the so-called "degree of freedom" will all be difficult points in starting EU accession negotiations.
The British Broadcasting Corporation published a set of data comparisons between Ukraine and EU countries. The most eye-catching thing is: if calculated by land area, Ukraine will become the "largest" EU country after joining the EU. The population exceeds 40 million, equivalent to half of Germany's population. But Ukraine is also one of the poorest countries in Europe, with GDP per capita being only US$3,724, one-ninth of the EU average.
In order to absorb East Germany after its reunification, Germany spent more than 2 trillion euros and imposed a "solidarity tax" of 5% to 7% on the people for more than 30 years. This tax was not significantly reduced until the COVID-19 outbreak.
What price are Europeans willing to pay next?
After absorbing the sovereignty of member states, how the EU gives corresponding rights and conducts effective governance, which is the so-called "democratic deficit" issue, is also a matter of endless debate among scholars.
html On June 24, Natalia Forsyuk, director of the Ukrainian government’s European Integration Coordination Office, said that Ukraine’s EU accession negotiations are expected to start in early 2023, and Ukraine is expected to officially join the EU in 2029. However, ordinary Ukrainians are also confused about what "standards" Ukraine must meet to join the EU.What changes will Ukraine’s accession to the EU bring?
People in Kyiv, Ukraine: This (becoming a candidate country) will not solve our problems. The EU is defending its own interests, so the situation in Ukraine will not change.
On June 17, French President Macron said frankly in an interview:
"Under normal circumstances, Ukraine cannot become an EU candidate country. We give it this status because there is a war there."
- French President Macron
In this regard, Russian State Duma Chairman Vyacheslav Volodin bluntly said that compared with the objective EU rules and standards, the subjective will of European politicians to try to weaken Russia has prevailed.
The meaning of Ukraine joining the EU or joining NATO is different
Previously, Russian President Putin had stated that he would not object to Ukraine joining the EU.
Russian President Putin: The EU is not a military organization, unlike NATO, which is a political and military group. Our position is consistent and clear. We are not against (Ukraine joining the EU). Whether to join an economic union is the sovereign decision of any country, and whether to accept new countries as its members is also decided by the economic union.
This is seen as treating the European Union, which was born out of the " European Economic Community ", differently from the "NATO" which was born out of the Cold War .
html On June 22, German Chancellor Scholz said that a "Ukrainian version of the Marshall Plan" will be discussed at the Group of Seven (G7) summit to be held on the 26th. After World War II, the United States relied on the economic " Marshall Plan ", the political "National Security Council Document No. 68" and the military NATO to build the "Western Bloc" against the Soviet Union during the Cold War.
In response, Russian President Vladimir Putin warned that given that Ukraine’s economy relies heavily on subsidies, if Ukraine insists on joining the EU, Ukraine’s domestic market will not be protected and may “become a semi-colonial of Western countries.”
Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov: We are very aware that the EU has evolved an aggressive ideological background in the past few years, first and foremost a Russophobic background.
Leaders of Germany, France and Italy visited Kiev Military aid to Ukraine caused controversy
It is worth noting that just before the EU summit, leaders of four EU countries, France, Germany, Italy and Romania, visited in advance. to Kiev. Among them, the leaders of France, Germany and Italy took an overnight train from Poland together, which attracted attention.
Compared with the "train trio" who deliberately showed that their "family background is not well-off", Ukraine is more concerned about whether the West can provide "large amounts" of weapons.
Previously, some Ukrainian politicians expressed dissatisfaction due to their caution in providing weapons to Ukraine.
Ukrainian MP Ivana: For example, Germany has always provided small arms.
Ukrainian Deputy Defense Minister Anna Maliar complained that the West was too "petty" and that Kiev had only obtained 10% of the weapons it needed.
A few days before the leaders of the EU countries left, Podolyak, the chief adviser to the Ukrainian President's Office, released a "wish list" of weapons and equipment on social media, including 1,000 155mm howitzers and 300 multiple rocket launchers. Weapons systems, 500 tanks, 2,000 armored vehicles and 1,000 drones.
French President Macron: I have decided to deliver six Caesar cannons in the next few weeks.
△The "Caesar" truck gun weighs only 18 tons. It is a large-caliber self-propelled artillery with 52 times the caliber and 155 mm. Because of its universal ammunition, it can "hit and run" and is regarded as the most "practical" NATO aid. One of the most effective offensive weapons.
But on June 20, French political commentator Ternau revealed on Twitter that the Russian army had captured two "Caesar cannons" intact and transported them back to China for imitation.
The Ural Locomotive and Rolling Stock Plant, a subsidiary of Rostec, sarcastically expressed its gratitude to the "French President for the gift" on social media.
Although the French military has denied that the advanced weapons aided by Ukraine have "fallen into enemy hands", Ukraine has frequently expressed dissatisfaction with the "inadequacy" of Western aid.
Ukrainian President Zelenskiy once "named out" Germany for its delay in delivering the promised heavy weapons .
"Asahi Shimbun" noticed that as the front line grows, more and more Western countries are reluctant to continue "blood transfusion" to Ukraine.
Italian Senator Abate: What do the Italian people want, Prime Minister? Demand that Italy stop providing Ukraine with murderous weapons because we don’t know whose hands they will fall into.
Sanctions against Russia have also backfired on the economies of European countries, and people in many European countries have become "tired of Ukraine". A poll released by " Los Angeles Times " shows that in both France and Germany, more than 40% of the people hope that the Russia-Ukraine conflict will end as soon as possible. Italians are more dovish, with the "peace camp" accounting for 52%.
The leaders of France, Germany and Italy have become more rigorous in their stance.
Previously, on May 21, German Defense Minister Lambrecht said that Ukraine promised to use the weapons it received only for defense purposes. But in fact, as the range of weapons aiding Ukraine becomes farther and farther, attacks on non-military targets also occur from time to time.
Local residents in the Donetsk region: The balcony was destroyed and the bedroom doors and windows were blown out.
Russia Permanent Representative to the United Nations Nebenzia: The trajectory of the rockets shows that the launch point is located in the area controlled by Kiev. These weapons happen to be weapons used by Western countries to assist Ukraine.
Therefore, French President Macron, German Chancellor Scholz and Italian Prime Minister Draghi still expressed caution during this trip.
German Chancellor Scholz: It is very necessary to maintain communication with Putin. I will continue to do so, and the French President will do the same.
French President Macron: Our desire is to achieve peace on our continent.
As the rotating EU presidency in the first half of 2022, France has been mediating between the two sides since the Russia-Ukraine conflict. According to Macron's own estimate, he has spoken to Putin for more than 100 hours in the past six months.
British media: Photos of interactions between leaders of France and Ukraine are "very embarrassing"
However, at the press conference, a set of photos of interactions between leaders of France and Ukraine were evaluated as "very embarrassing" by the British " Daily Mail " and other media.
France 24 TV station said that the two men shook hands like they were wrestling.
In this regard, Vice Chairman of the Russian Federation Security Council Medvedev bluntly said that this was a visit with "zero results".
html On June 21, Russian Presidential Press Secretary Peskov said that Ukraine did not try to resume negotiations with Russia after the leaders of EU countries left. Russian Presidential Press Secretary Peskov: We hope that the leaders of these three countries and Romania’s President will not only focus on supporting Ukraine by aiding weapons.
Hidden external pressure behind Ukraine’s “rapid entry into the European Union”
Olenchenko, an expert at the European Research Center of the Russian Academy of Sciences, noticed that this time Ukraine started the “rapid entry into the European Union” process, and there was also external pressure from the United States behind it.
Now, with the conflict between Russia and Ukraine still raging, the United States and Britain outside the EU have launched a new round of military assistance to Ukraine in a high-profile manner. The situation in Europe becomes more complicated.
html On June 17, just after the leaders of the EU countries left, British Prime Minister Johnson secretly visited Kiev.He did not choose to come with his European "partners", which reflects Britain's completely different attitude on the Ukrainian issue.
Russia's " Pravda " believes that Macron, Scholz and others visited Kiev to persuade Zelensky to resume negotiations with Russia, while Johnson's desperate rush to Kiev was to continue the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. Gonghuo".
British Prime Minister Johnson: We will continue to provide the military equipment you need as always.
According to the Ukrainian President's Office, the two sides discussed the issue of aiding Ukraine with heavy weapons and air defense systems .
Johnson also promised that the UK will provide military training to the Ukrainian army and train 10,000 Ukrainian soldiers every four months. The training subjects include combat skills, basic medical skills, network security and explosive disposal technology.
British Defense Secretary Wallace: We have strengthened training for the Ukrainian armed forces in the UK and other partner countries.
Since the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the UK has vigorously assisted Ukraine with various weapons and equipment, including thousands of "NLAW" anti-tank missiles, M270 multiple launch rocket systems, "Starlight" air defense missile systems (Starstreak), and "Brimstone" missiles ( brimstone), 155mm self-propelled artillery, armored vehicles, etc.
In the view of some scholars, although the leaders of EU countries have also promised to continue assistance, this is seen more as a gesture forced by the "political correctness" imposed by the United States.
Expert at the Middle East Strategic Research Center Orhan: ( The Ukraine crisis ) has brought difficulties to European countries. They hope that the crisis will end as soon as possible. From the perspective of the United States, the continuation of the conflict seems to create more opportunities and is more in line with its own interests.
"Kicking Russia out of the ranks of major powers" and "the United States wants to see a weakened Russia" are the outspoken views of senior officials such as US Defense Secretary Austin.
Marcos, professor of political economy at the State University of Sao Paulo in Brazil: I don’t think this war will end before November 2022 (the US mid-term elections). Why do I say this? Biden ’s US government is facing a series of structural problems, mainly inflation . As long as there is war, it at least serves as an excuse to blame all governance failures on external conflicts.
As the international politics scholar Mearsheimer said in "The Tragedy of Great Power Politics":
The United Kingdom, which has already left the European Union, has also found a role in "playing the role of the United States' 'container' on the European continent in the Russia-Ukraine crisis. "Opportunity.
Italy's Corriere della Sera quoted sources as saying that Johnson intends to invite Ukraine to establish a "mini European Union". Members may include Poland, Estonia , Latvia , Lithuania , and may also include others who want to join. The EU has always failed to achieve its desired and Turkish .
Once this "marginal alliance" comes true, it will challenge the existing EU system.
The UK, France and Germany have taken active actions on the Russia-Ukraine issue, but "red lights" are frequently on at home.
However, the UK, which is "more active than Germany, France and Italy, and harder than the United States" on the Russia-Ukraine issue, has frequently "red lights" on the country. .
British people: You have to work 50 to 60 hours to be able to pay your bills and rent. This is unacceptable in the 21st century.
According to the British media INEWS, 40 years ago, Mrs. Thatcher faced with high inflation and rising domestic dissatisfaction, she used her victory in the Falklands War to be re-elected successfully. But now Johnson is facing many difficulties in using the Ukraine crisis to "extricate himself".
France is also facing difficult times.
French President Macron: I also cannot ignore these huge cracks and deep divisions that run through France and are reflected in the new parliament.
html On June 19, the second round of voting in the French National Assembly election ended. Macron’s center-left alliance failed to obtain an absolute majority of more than 289 seats. This means that Macron’s path to power in the next five years is likely to be affected. restrictions.The leader of the far-left party "Indomitable France", Mélenchon, has risen strongly, and the far-right "National Rally" led by Le Pen has won a historic victory, becoming the third largest force in the parliament. Macron is also faced with the "right and left" Pincer attack".
Le Pen, leader of France's "National Rally": Let Macron become a minority president.
Starting from June 21, Macron has begun to meet with multiple opposition party leaders at the Elysee Palace. According to France International Radio, Macron must seek cooperation with the opposition parties before he can hope to face the first serious challenge in his new term.
In Munich, Germany, eight police cars were set on fire on June 22, casting a shadow over the G7 summit that opened on the 26th.
According to data released by the German Federal Statistics Office, Germany's inflation rate in May this year was 7.9%, which has hit a record high since German reunification for three consecutive months. The reason is the "energy crisis."
Faced with reduced supply of Russian natural gas , the German government has to urge companies and households to reduce natural gas consumption to a minimum level.
German Deputy Chancellor and Economic Minister Habeck: From now on, natural gas is a scarce commodity in Germany.
Belgian Prime Minister De Croo: If today Germany is already considering the problem of natural gas shortages in winter, the impact on Germany and all other European countries will be huge.
The United States continues to provide arms assistance to Ukraine
Compared with the Russia-Ukraine crisis that Europeans cannot avoid, on June 25, U.S. President Biden left for Europe to attend the G7 Summit and the NATO Summit. He said that during this trip, "there was no Too likely” to visit Ukraine.
However, on June 15, the Biden administration provided another US$1 billion worth of military assistance to Ukraine, many of which were heavy weapons.
U.S. Defense Secretary Austin: Including ammunition for multiple launch rocket systems, 18 M777 howitzers with tactical vehicles, and 36,000 rounds of 155 mm caliber artillery shells.
Among this batch of military aid, the most attention-grabbing one is the two sets of shore-based "Harpoon" anti-ship missile systems (Harpoon) that the United States will provide to Ukraine for the first time. The "Wall Street Journal" reported that this is the type of equipment that Ukraine has always wanted and will enhance its deterrence against Russia's Black Sea Fleet.
Today's Russia TV station expressed concern:
On the black market, some weapons provided by the West to Ukraine are being sold at a "discount."
Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov: Take a closer look at the weapons shipped to Ukraine. The same Stinger missiles and Javelin missiles are already sold on the black market and have appeared in Albania and Kosovo .
Iraqi security expert Akila al-Taya expressed concern: "These weapons may not only be smuggled to extremists inside and outside Ukraine, but may even fall into the hands of terrorists including the "Islamic State" in the hands of terrorist organizations.
html On June 19, the Russian Ministry of Defense issued a statement that the Russian Navy used "Caliber" missiles to destroy 10 M777 howitzers and 20 Western armored vehicles located in a transformer factory in Nikolaev City. According to the Russian Satellite News Network, Russia has previously issued a note to Western countries, including the United States, stating that any goods containing weapons provided to Ukraine will become legal targets for the Russian armed forces.
Ukraine’s “entry into the EU” is pending Finland Will Sweden’s “entry into the EU” be successful?
Corresponding to "entering the European Union" is "entering the treaty".
Next week, the NATO summit will be held in Madrid, Spain.
Whether NATO can successfully launch the "accession process" of Finland and Sweden is also full of unknowns due to Turkey's firm opposition.
It is worth noting that Turkey became a "candidate country to join the European Union" as early as 1999. This also confirms from the side that neither the "road to join the alliance" nor the "road to join the treaty" is easy to follow.
