1. Bad news
. Recently, the U.S. Trade Representative’s website issued a notice: U.S. Trade Representative Dai Qi (Katherine Tai) will be in Washington on October 4 (that is, next Monday). The "Center for Strategic Studies" think tank delivered a speech and announced the Biden administration's US-China trade relationship strategy. Dai Qi will also answer reporters' questions. The market originally expected that there would be no moths this time, but judging from the information sent by foreign media, it does not seem to be the case.
According to a number of foreign media reports, a source said that President Biden’s senior trade official Dai Qi will announce that China has not complied with the first phase of the trade agreement. The Office of the United States Trade Representative is evaluating possible actions in response to China’s non-compliance, including possible additional tariffs.
If the news is true, then it is an obvious negative for A shares. Since 2018, the United States has been fighting a trade war with China, and all stocks in A shares have fallen sharply, regardless of Which sector is it?
So let’s analyze and see if the United States continues to fight the trade war, what impact will it have on our stocks?
We will select one or two stocks for analysis from the technology semiconductor, liquor, medicine, photovoltaic, non-ferrous metals, banking, communications equipment, aquaculture and other sectors.
1. Chip semiconductors, communication equipment
1.1 Wingtech , from the beginning of 2018 to the beginning of 2019, a decrease of about 51.6%, which took a year
img1 p0
img1 p0 1.2 GigaEase Innovation,From April 2018 to the beginning of 2019, the decrease was 61%, which took 8 months
1.3 ZTE, from the beginning of 2018 to August 2018, the decrease was 72.1%, which took 8 months 8 months
2, liquor, dairy products, condiments
2.1 Moutai, from June 2018 to November 2018, a decrease of 37.9%, which took more than 5 times Month
2.2 Wuliangye, from the beginning of 2018 to November 2018, a decrease of 52%, which took 11 months
img5p0 span1 span_
1 span , From the beginning of 2018 to November 2018, a decrease of 44.4%, which took 11 months
2.4 Haitian Flavor Industry, from June 2018 to November 2018, a decrease of 35 %, it took more than 5 months
3. Non-ferrous metals, military industry
3.1 Zijin Mining, from February 2018 to February 2019,A decrease of 49.2%, which took 1 year
3.2 Huayou Cobalt, from March 2018 to July 2019, a decrease of 74.1%, which took 1 year and 4 months_ span2span
3.3 Northern Rare Earth , from August 2017 to March 2020, a decline of 60%, took 2 years and 5 months
img10
1 span 3.4 AVIC Shenfei , from the beginning of 2017 to the beginning of 2020, the decline is not large, but it took 3 years
4. Pharmaceutical industry, due to my preference for the pharmaceutical industry, so I listed More pharmaceutical stocks
4.1 Hengrui Pharmaceuticals , from June 2018 to the beginning of 2019, fell 40%, which took about 6 months
4.2 Gaoxin, from July 2018 to November 2018, a decline of 42%, which took 4 months
4.3 WuXi PharmaTech , from June 2018 to early 2019,A decrease of 48.9%, which took more than 6 months
4.4 凯莱英, from July 2018 to November 2018, a decrease of 40%, which took 4 months
4.5 Tigermed , from July 2018 to January 2019, a decrease of 44%, which took more than 6 months
img16
34.6 Ophthalmology, from July 2018 to January 2019, a decrease of 31%, which took more than 6 months
To sum up:
1 Under the background, the impact of the export industry will be huge, especially for objects that are severely sanctioned by the United States, such as ZTE, Northern Rare Earth, , and COSCO COSCO, but for domestic rigid demand industries, the impact is limited. For example, the Haitian flavor industry and the pharmaceutical industry have the least impact no matter whether it is from a decline or time-consuming. The market environment is a factor that we should consider, but it is also an event that we cannot predict. Mingkangde’s foreign income accounted for as high as 70%, but I carefully analyzed the impact of the Sino-US trade war in 2018 on the company. Similar to Kailaiying and Tigermed, the decline was not large, and the time of the decline is acceptable, so Although the CRO industry accounts for a high proportion of foreign income, it is less affected by the macro economy. My personal analysis is that the ultimate goal of the pharmaceutical industry is to benefit mankind.To solve human suffering, for this purpose, based on historical experience analysis, the country rarely cracks down on this industry. Another factor is that the total market value of our country’s pharmaceutical industry is not as good as that of a foreign pharmaceutical company, so there is no need for the United States. The dimensionality reduction crackdown, to put it bluntly, is that we do not deserve to be suppressed by the United States in this industry.
2 The previous data show that if a vicious trade war between China and the United States breaks out again, it will definitely have an impact on the domestic economy. The impact of the pharmaceutical industry is minimal, and the impact time is very short, so we can bear the time of suffering. WuXi AppTec has no problems in itself, and the current valuation is reasonable. As for the external environment, what will happen to it? , Let's treat it with a normal mind, but we can say with confidence that if the market falls, other stocks will fall more vigorously than us.
2. The good news
The good news is the rumors that and Merck have developed a specific drug for the treatment of new coronavirus . If the news is true, then it is considered to be an effective drug for PharmaTech. There is an indirect good news, because the special effect medicine itself is a small molecule structure, and Merck is an old customer of WuXi AppTec. This is good news for the company.
Summary:
1 At present, the housing market has been suppressed, and the existing houses in China can accommodate all human beings. This is not alarmist. This is a fact. It is conceivable that the current real estate in China To what extent is the excess capacity, it is impossible for funds to stay in the housing market. Smart funds have run out of the housing market a long time ago. They have been running for the past two years. Therefore, the rise of A-shares is the only way. Only the stock market can accommodate it. Coupled with the reform and opening up of China’s stock market, foreign investment has become a non-negligible part. My judgment is that A-shares will continue to move forward.The current sector switching is obvious. Investors who hold pharmaceutical stocks and high-end liquor companies can hold them with peace of mind.
2 We make money in the stock market, and what we make is actually the money of the motherland's strong dividend. I believe that the motherland continues to grow stronger and we will continue to enjoy this dividend.
.
