Event: On the evening of May 8, Beijing time, the US Department of Labor released the non-farm employment data for April. In this report, we will answer five of the core questions.
Core conclusion: The real situation in is not as optimistic as it seems.
1. Why did the US unemployment rate increase in April lower than expected? is mainly because a large number of unemployed people give up looking for jobs and is no longer counted as labor force; assuming that the reduction in labor force is entirely due to the unemployed people's exit from the labor market, the unemployment rate in the United States in April will be 18.9%.
2. Which industries in the United States have the most serious employment deterioration? The leisure and hotel industries are the highest, followed by other services, wholesale and retail trade, and construction industries.
3. Why did the growth rate of hourly wages in the United States increase significantly in April? is mainly due to selective layoffs in enterprises and changes in employment structure.
4. Will the US unemployment rate continue to rise in May? is likely to be above 20%, but the resumption of work in several states in the United States is a disturbance.
5. What are the inspirations for employment situation in China? is also not optimistic, and the pressure in the second quarter is still huge.
The main text is as follows:
Q1: Why is the increase in the US unemployment rate in April lower than expected?
The U.S. unemployment rate in April was 14.7%, the highest since data was found in 1948, but was 16% lower than expected, and the previous value was 4.4%. At the same time, the U.S. labor participation rate fell sharply by 2.5 percentage points to 60.2% in April, the lowest level since 1973, and 61% lower than expected, corresponding to a sharp decline of 6.432 million U.S. labor force in April compared with March. From this point of view, the US unemployment rate rose lower than market expectations in April, mainly because a large number of unemployed people gave up looking for jobs and were no longer counted as labor force, which reflects the pessimism of job seekers about the employment market. Assuming that the labor reduction is all due to the unemployed exiting the labor market, the U.S. unemployment rate in April will be 18.9%.
Q2: Which industries in the United States have the most serious employment deterioration?
Among all industries in the United States in April, the unemployment rate in the leisure and hotel industry was the highest at 39.3%, far higher than other industries. In addition, the unemployment rate in other services, wholesale and retail trade, and construction industries was also higher than the overall unemployment rate level, and the employment deterioration was the most serious. In contrast, the unemployment rate in industries such as finance, government employees, professional and commercial services, and mining is lower, and the employment deteriorates the least. Overall, the degree of employment deterioration in various industries is basically consistent with the degree of impact from the epidemic.
Q3: Why did the growth rate of hourly wages in the United States 4html significantly increase in January?
The month-on-month growth rate of the United States in April was 4.7%, significantly higher than expected and the previous value by 0.4%; the year-on-year growth rate was 7.9%, significantly higher than expected and the previous value by 3.3%; the average weekly working hours increased by 0.1 hours to 34.2 hours from the previous month. There are two main reasons for the significant increase in hourly wage growth:
(1) Selective layoffs of employees in enterprises: The statistics of hourly wage data are only for on-the-job personnel, so they are not affected by the increase in unemployment. According to common sense, when companies are forced to lay off employees due to business difficulties, they often take the lead in dismissing non-core positions, and the salary level of these personnel is generally low. Therefore, if the salary of the remaining personnel remains unchanged, the average salary will increase. Judging from the data, the average hourly wages of all industries in the United States increased in April, which also indirectly confirmed this.
(2) Changes in employment structure: Among all industries in the United States in April, employment declines in leisure and hotel, retail, other services and other industries with lower hourly wages, while employment declines in industries such as information, utilities, finance, professional and commercial services and other industries with higher hourly wages. Therefore, changes in the employment structure also increased the overall hourly wage growth rate in April.
Q4: Will the unemployment rate continue to rise in the United States 5html in January?
The survey time of the US monthly non-farm report is on the 12th week, which means that for May, the statistics of employment data in May will be completed on May 16th. As of May 2, the total number of people applying for initial + renewed unemployment benefits in the United States reached 25.816 million. The average difference between the unemployment rate and the official unemployment rate of the unemployment insurance holders in the past five years is 3.0%. Assuming that the labor force remains unchanged, the unemployment rate in May will reach about 20%.But as the number of people applying for unemployment benefits is likely to continue to rise in the next two weeks, the unemployment rate in May is likely to be above 20%.
It should be noted that before May 16, many states in the United States will begin to resume work one after another. If the resumption progress exceeds expectations, it will provide certain support for the employment situation in May.
Q5: What are the inspirations for employment situation in China?
maintained its previous judgment (see the report "How bad is US employment under the epidemic? What about China?"). According to the US employment data, although China's urban surveyed unemployment rate fell by 0.3 percentage points to 5.9% in March from February, China's real employment situation is not optimistic. The pressure in the second quarter is still huge. Stabilizing employment is the top priority, which is reflected in the Politburo meeting on April 17, and the newly proposed "six guarantees" is also "protecting residents' employment."
This article comes from the financial industry website
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